Tornado Warning 35, NWS Memphis, TN

951 
WWUS54 KMEG 302353
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
653 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ARC031-055-310015-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-250331T0015Z/
Greene AR-Craighead AR-
653 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

At 653 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Egypt, or 9 miles west of Bono, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Crowleys Ridge State Park, Delfore, Lake City, Valley View, Egypt,
Macey, Schug, Cash, Gum Point, Farrville, Dorothy, Lester, Craighead
Forest Park, Winesburg, Jonesboro, Bethel, Lanieve, Finch, Lache
Lake, and Lorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3588 9087 3596 9086 3598 9084
      3599 9085 3602 9084 3604 9084 3602 9036
      3600 9038 3599 9029 3576 9029 3579 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 271DEG 38KT 3589 9096 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

DKJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
618 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

-Severe thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South this evening
 through the early morning hours on Monday. Damaging winds,
 tornadoes, large hail and flash flooding will be possible.

-Dry and cool conditions are forecast Monday and Tuesday.

-An active weather pattern will reemerge Wednesday and persist
 through next weekend. Multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms
 will produce potential for significant flooding, especially along
 and north of Interstate 40. In addition, thunderstorms may bring
 damaging winds and tornadoes. By the end of next weekend, 7 to
 12 inches of rainfall is expected north of Interstate 40, with 3
 to 7 inches to the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Primary concern remains short term severe weather threat.
Several hours of clearing over AR have allowed surface-based CAPE
to build in excess of 3000 J/kg, as measured by the 18Z LZK
sounding. This sounding also showed an elevated mixed layer (EML),
yielding very steep midlevel lapse rates of 9.3 C/km. Deep moist
convection has been capped thus far by the EML, but this capping
should weaken as the EML translates east in tandem with an
approaching midlevel trough. The LZK sounding measured 0-3km SRH
of 180 m2/s2, but this should increase with the development of a
45KT low level jet over the delta after 22Z. This low level jet
will largely be responsible for Energy Helicity Index (EHI) and
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) ramping up over delta by
sunset. 18Z HRRR depicts the STP increasing to 5-8 over the
Memphis metro between 8-10PM CDT / 01-03Z. STP values this high
indicate a potential for strong, long-track tornadoes.

By midnight, convection mode will transition to quasi-linear,
as a midlevel shortwave lifts eastward into the Ohio River
Valley. Orientation of the QLCS will roughly orient parallel to
I-40, as it sinks south into north MS after midnight. Wind threat
will likely increase over north MS during the overnight, with
the approach of an upstream shortwave trough from TX. Post-
midnight HRRR hodographs over northeast MS indicate a likelihood
of embedded supercells and tornadoes through 3-4 AM.

Relatively quiet zonal flow aloft will prevail Monday and Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, low level return flow will develop and intensify
under increasingly diffluent flow aloft. By Wednesday afternoon,
a longwave trough will occupy the western two-thirds of the CONUS.
The Midsouth will remain under southwest flow aloft, situated
between the longwave trough and a 589 DM 500mb Bermuda high.
This setup will prevail through late week, slowly becoming more
amplified. A belt of midlevel Pacific tropical moisture will
combine with surface dewpoints in the 60s to produce PWAT values
around 2 inches over the Midsouth, at the maximum value of
climatology. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend across
AR into the lower OH River Valley, oscillating as a series of
shortwaves eject from the western trough. Multiple rain events
will combine to produce weekly rainfall totals of 7 to 12 inches
north of I-40, and 3 to 7 inches to the south. In addition to a
river and areal flooding threat, damaging winds will be possible.
In particular, Wednesday stands out, with LREF mean surface based
CAPE of 2000 J/kg and mean 0-3 km SRH of 270 m2/s2 along and south
of I-40.

By late next weekend into early the following week, a deepening
northern branch longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will
displace the tropical moisture fetch and allow a relatively strong
surface cold front to pass. The cooler and drier conditions will
prevail for several days as we wrap up the first week of April.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the Midsouth
this evening, lasting through the overnight hours. 01-03Z at JBR,
04z at MKL and MEM, and 07-08z at TUP looks to the the greatest
impact although storms could develop ahead of the main line.
Showers will likely continue behind the line. IFR to MVFR cigs are
likely through the night. South to southwest winds around 15 kts
tonight will shift from the northwest before sunrise at around
10kts. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites after 15z
tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     Hail             4 W Hickoria            36.37N 90.52W
03/30/2025  M1.25 Inch       Clay               AR   Public

            Report of half dollar size hail.

&&

CMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
607 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Hail             3 E Knobel              36.32N 90.55W
03/30/2025  M1.00 Inch       Clay               AR   Storm Chaser

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     Hail             3 E Hickoria            36.39N 90.39W
03/30/2025  E1.75 Inch       Clay               AR   Public

            Social media report of golf ball size hail
            between McDougal and Boydsville.

&&

CMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             4 ESE Peach Orchard     36.25N 90.60W
03/30/2025  E1.75 Inch       Greene             AR   Public

            Report of golf ball size hail south of
            highway 90 along highway 141 east of Knobel.

&&

CMA