Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Memphis, TN

March 23, 20255 counties in Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 23, 2025, 7:18 PM CDT for 5 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2025, 7:18 PM CDT (00:18 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2025, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 23, 3:16 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1339 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 717 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 193 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.9
Supercell composite: 12.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 23, 6:28 PM CDT, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of a line from Union City, Tennessee to Forrest City, Arkansas into this evening. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail with damaging winds as a secondary threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail for most of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 6:28 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms along and south
  of a line from Union City, Tennessee to Forrest City, Arkansas
  into this evening. The primary severe weather threat will be
  large hail with damaging winds as a secondary threat. A brief
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail for
  most of the week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front over portions
of southern Missouri and western Kentucky. An occluding cold
front is located from western Missouri back into northwest
Arkansas and into the Red River valley. Mostly cloudy skies have
persisted across the Mid-South today with a few warm advection
rain showers occurring below a capping inversion across the area.
Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT range from the upper 60s north to the
70s across north Mississippi. Strong to severe thunderstorm
potential through this evening remains the primary concern in this
afternoon's forecast issuance.

Latest early afternoon ACARS sounding near Memphis still shows a
capping inversion present in the 800-750 mb layer but has been
gradually eroding over the past couple of hours. Latest short-term
trends suggest the aforementioned capping inversion should
continue to weaken for the remainder of this afternoon as height
falls slowly spread across the region into this evening. CAPE
values between 1000-1500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
decent deep layer shear favor large hail as the primary threat,
with a secondary threat for damaging winds. The greatest threat
for severe weather still remains mainly between late afternoon
through mid evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end behind the front
tonight with high pressure returning to the Mid-South through much
of the week with above normal temperatures. Long-range
deterministic models continue to struggle with a southern stream
shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains late this week
and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by this weekend. The GFS is
the more progressive outlier compared to the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions. An ensemble blend seems reasonable at this time and no
changes were made to long term rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will affect MEM through at least 1Z, and
TUP through at least 2Z ahead of a cold front stretching from the
MO Bootheel back through central Arkansas. Confidence was too low
to include TS at MKL based on recent trends. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected behind the cold front with southwest winds
veering NW with passage of cold front.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 23, 6:30 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 23, 6:54 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 23, 6:59 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 23, 7:11 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 23, 7:16 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 23, 7:17 PM CDT, 1 minute before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
717 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Hail             2 E Okolona             34.01N 88.71W
03/23/2025  E1.25 Inch       Monroe             MS   Broadcast Media

            Report of half dollar hail along Hwy 45 near
            Okolona.

&&

CMA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 23, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Itawamba, Monroe	40 min
Mar 23, 7:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw	42 min
Mar 23, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc	48 min
Mar 23, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chickasaw, Monroe	47 min
Mar 23, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Itawamba, Monroe	44 min
Mar 23, 9:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Monroe	43 min
Mar 23, 9:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Monroe	11 min
Mar 23, 9:36 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MEG	Chickasaw, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc	114 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2025 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.