Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
  evening, mainly over east central Arkansas and north
  Mississippi. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible.

- The next round of thunderstorms will arrive Monday, along and
  ahead of a slow-moving cold front. There is a Slight Risk for
  severe thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 40, mainly
  during the day Monday. The main threat will be damaging winds
  and large hail.

- Fair weather and low humidity will prevail Monday night through
  Wednesday. Midsummer-like humidity will return for the latter
  half of next week, along with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The Midsouth was free of thunderstorms early this afternoon,
behind a line of severe storms that lifted through north MS
earlier today. Last several HRRR runs have depicted additional
storms developing early this evening over east central AR into
north MS. While the boundary layer over north MS has stabilized in
the wake of earlier storms, GOES visible imagery showed clearing
skies over north MS and southwest TN. In addition, the 12Z NAM
depicts high theta-e air surging north at 925mb toward sunset,
under an area of strengthening 250mb divergence. With this in
mind, the HRRR depiction of isolated storms over east central AR
and north MS appears on track.

By midmorning Sunday, slightly drier air will spread into the
Midsouth, behind a weak cold front.

The next round of storms appears on track for Monday, as deep
cut-off upper low settles into the Great Lakes. A reinforcing cold
front will push through the Midsouth Monday, aided by midlevel
height falls. 12Z LREF depicts a greater than 50 percent chance of
surface-based CAPE colocated with 30+KT of deep layer bulk shear
to the west and south of Memphis. The progressive nature of the
cold front and loss of daytime heating should limit Monday's
severe threat to the daytime hours.

From Monday night through Wednesday, fair and pleasant early
summer weather to prevail, with seasonal temperatures and humidity
levels. This pattern won't last long however. Global models show
good consensus in developing a cut-off upper level low over the
southern Great Plains on Thursday, with Gulf humidity returning to
the Midsouth in advance of the upper low. 70s dewpoints and daytime
heating will result in a return of daily thunderstorms.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Biggest TAF concern this issuance will be a secondary wave of
convection this evening along a shortwave mainly over north
Mississippi. A TEMPO has been added at TUP for such. This wave
looks to clear the airspace by 06Z. MVFR conditions will begin to
infiltrate MEM/MKL/TUP overnight, lifting back to VFR shortly
after sunrise. West/southwest winds, predominately sub 10 kts,
will shift more northwest toward the end of the period behind a
frontal passage.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
838 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

ARZ049-058-MSZ007-080215-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-Tunica MS-
838 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN
PHILLIPS AND SOUTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lexa, or near Marvell, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Helena-West Helena, St Francis National Park, Tunica, Lexa, Rondo,
Dubbs, North Tunica, Dundee, Lagrange, Gerlach Mill, Quarles, Austin,
Wycamp, Latour, Vineyard, Helena Crossing, Cypress Corner, Poplar
Grove, Huma, and Maud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 9035 3448 9033 3449 9050 3453 9057
      3449 9059 3450 9089 3468 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 266DEG 35KT 3460 9082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

ARZ035-036-048-049-MSZ001-007-TNZ088-080230-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Lee AR-Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-
Shelby TN-
853 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LEE...ST.
FRANCIS...CENTRAL CRITTENDEN...SOUTHEASTERN CROSS...NORTHWESTERN
DESOTO...NORTHERN TUNICA AND SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTIES THROUGH 930
PM CDT...

At 853 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Madison, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southaven, West Memphis, Horn Lake, Forrest City, Hernando, Marion,
Marianna, Hughes, Madison, Palestine, T O Fuller State Park, Memphis,
Walls, Caldwell, Crawfordsville, Edmondson, Horseshoe Lake, Widener,
Sunset, and Anthonyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 9091 3510 9089 3528 9010 3486 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 259DEG 36KT 3497 9071

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
902 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

ARZ049-058-080230-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-
902 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHERN
PHILLIPS COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer, or 11 miles northwest of Marvell, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Marvell, Helena-West Helena, Lexa, Rondo, Aubrey, Lagrange,
Jeffersonville, Poplar Grove, Huma, Big Creek Corner, Quarles,
Barton, Wycamp, Latour, Kindall, Turkey Scratch, Vineyard,
Thomasville, and Spring Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
eastern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 9105 3479 9067 3452 9064 3453 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 264DEG 31KT 3463 9109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

MSZ002-013-080245-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-
916 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 916 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harmontown, or 10 miles north of Holly Springs National Forest,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harmontown, Bethlehem, Laws Hill, Cambridge, Abbeville, Malone, Keel,
Blackwater, Teckville, Spraggins, Cornersville, and Burt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8969 3467 8958 3456 8925 3447 8925
      3431 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 294DEG 22KT 3451 8959

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schlessiger

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