Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
101 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend.
  The primary concerns will be damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall.

- Daily rounds of rain continue into next week.

- Temperatures will generally remain near normal this weekend
  through next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
  the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 206 Very warm, humid
conditions are in place across the Midsouth with a few showers
over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Any showers
this morning will have to contend with low level stability and
weak shear, likely keeping the severe threat low through tomorrow
morning. By early afternoon, a decaying MCS is forecast to move
through the region as displayed by the HRRR/HREF. Convective
coverage is somewhat uncertain, but the prevailing sentiment
amongst CAMs is that an outflow boundary harboring a few showers
and storms is possible. Additionally, given the timing of the
MCS's passage, subsident and less unstable conditions would
persist into the normal diurnal max of instability. Therefore,
additional uncertainty presents itself this evening regarding
convective coverage, but storm development is still expected.
Given the summer-like airmass in place and increasing shear, any
storms are likely to organize and offer a primary wind and hail
threat which has prompted a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe
weather across the entire area.

Similarly warm and humid conditions are expected tonight into
tomorrow. The upper pattern will retain its zonal shape with model
guidance bringing a shortwave down through the Plains towards the
Midsouth through Saturday afternoon. More afternoon convection
would be likely as this feature moves through the region as ample
CAPE and shear would be in place. SPC has a slight (level 2/5)
risk of severe weather for Saturday afternoon, primarily for wind
and hail. This risk could potentially change as convective
uncertainties are ironed out over the next day. Regardless, with
more upper forcing, storms may persist longer into the night
Saturday with a larger coverage of severe potential. By late
Saturday night and in to Sunday morning, a cold front pushes
showers and storms south through the region into north Mississippi
Sunday morning.

Somewhat cooler conditions are expected beyond this point north
of the front, which is forecast to stall somewhere in Mississippi
and maintain this latitude, through next week. Both surface and
upper ridging will build as well with northwest flow taking shape
by Monday beneath another upper low over the Great Lakes. Diurnal
jumps in instability will bring shower and storm chances each
day throughout the week, especially over the southern half of the
region. Severe chances appear low, but a few marginally severe
storms could be possible if instability is able to over perform.
Gradual warming of highs back into the mid to upper 80s is also
likely towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KNQA radar showed an eastward-moving convectively-generated low
pressure system north of LIT. This feature will likely aid
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. After this feature passes
and daytime heating weakens, the lower atmosphere should stabilize.
VFR and light winds are expected for the late evening MEM inbound
push.

Next round of TSRA will arrive around 12Z Saturday. This system
should be fairly progressive, developing a potential for strong
winds at TUP later in the morning. General TSRA expected to
develop over the Midsouth Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere
remains warm and quite humid.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

TNZ004-021-022-061800-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-Henry TN-
1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BENTON...NORTHEASTERN
CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Huntingdon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McKenzie, Huntingdon, Camden, New Johnsonville, Bruceton, Vale,
Hollow Rock, Big Sandy, Hillard, Mansfield, Manleyville, Hico, Mixie,
Spring Creek, Crews Store, Tate, Ephesus, Buena Vista, and Nathan
Bedford Forrest State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3605 8799 3602 8800 3594 8847
      3611 8853 3630 8795 3627 8794 3622 8795
      3616 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 253DEG 21KT 3606 8842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AC3

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