Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

- A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8PM for north central and
  northeast Mississippi, and portions of west Tennessee near the
  Tennessee River. Large hail, damaging winds, and brief tornado
  or two are the main threats.

- Cooler and less humid conditions will follow for Wednesday
  through Friday behind a cold front. A low chance of showers will
  occur late Wednesday as another cold front moves across the
  region.

- Better Chances for thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South
  this weekend as an upper level disturbance moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

The airmass has recovered well over the past 3 hours as skies
cleared quickly behind this morning's storms. Hi-res model
guidance has handled the overall radar trends well from this
morning and shows scattered to numerous thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening.

A SW to NE gradient of MLCAPE is currently stretched over the
area. Current values range from 2500 J/kg over SE AR and NW MS to
1500 J/kg near TN/KY border. Deep layer shear remains plentiful
with 50 to 65 knots across the entire area. The current upscale
growth limiting factors are low level shear (<150 effective SRH)
and mid level lapse rates (around 6 C/km). As a 70 knot mid level
jet rounds the base of the main trough, better lapse rates and low
level shear will increase over the next couple of hours over much
of the area. The most favorable location of overlapping shear and
instability will reside along and south of I-40 through this
evening.

The most robust storms are currently moving across south central
Arkansas and will likely move into SW portions of the Mid-South
over hour or so. Storm motion is currently SW to NE, but expected
to become more westerly by late afternoon as the mid level jet
overspreads the area. This will not only accelerate storm motion,
but will most likely shift storm mode from discrete supercellular
to more linear with bowing line segments. All hazards are anticipated
within this regime including damaging winds, large hail, and a
few strong tornadoes (EF-2+).

The threat of severe weather will end just after sunset as the
main shortwave swings through the region. A cold front will
quickly swing in behind the storms and begin to advect in drier
and cooler air through tomorrow morning.

The models continue to hit on a few showers Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning as a shortwave and associated cold front
moves across the area. Much drier air will move in for Thursday
and Friday, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

Unsettled weather will begin as early as Friday night and continue
through early next week as several upper level disturbances rotate
through the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

TSRA line continues to advance to the east, with only TUP
affected into the early evening. Otherwise, clear skies and
decreasing WSW winds will prevail areawide tonight. A few gusts
are likely to return Wednesday morning, as the mixing layer
deepens following sunrise.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
518 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Brownsville       35.61N 89.30W
05/20/2025                   Haywood            TN   Trained Spotter

            tree down on hwy 19 outside of Brownsville.
            time matched with strong outbound velocity
            surge on radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
525 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Eaton                   35.97N 89.13W
05/20/2025                   Gibson             TN   Emergency Mngr

            trees down on hwy 188 on the Gibson/Crockett
            County line in the Eaton community.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Martin            36.34N 88.87W
05/20/2025                   Weakley            TN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            significant tree damage impacting multiple
            houses on the west side of Martin. power
            poles also down. Time is radar estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
534 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Springville             36.25N 88.15W
05/20/2025                   Henry              TN   Emergency Mngr

            tree down on powerline in the Springville
            community. Time is radar estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SW Abbeville          34.45N 89.56W
05/20/2025                   Lafayette          MS   Emergency Mngr

            trees down on CR 103.

&&

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