Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

- An Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe storms is in place today. Two
  rounds of severe weather are anticipated with greater severe
  probabilities existing in the afternoon hours.

- Cooler and less humid conditions will follow for Wednesday
  through Friday behind a cold front.

- Chances for thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South this
  weekend as an upper level disturbance moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

300 AM radar imagery depicts nebulous showers and thunderstorms
over the Mid-South. A stout EML is responsible for keeping this
activity at bay, resulting in storms struggling to organize
despite being in an environment comprised of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
and midlevel lapse rates in excess of 7.0 C/km. Further west near
the Little Rock metro, a line of thunderstorms continue to move
northeast at about 40 mph. Satellite and radar trends suggest this
line is beginning to intensify, suggesting the aforementioned EML
is eroding. In addition, RAP forecast soundings gradually erode
this cap over the next several hours. Therefore, by the time these
storms reach our neck of the woods, our environment will be
primed for severe storms. Damaging winds are the primary concern,
but a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. This activity
will push out of the area by 10AM. A quick note:
there also exists a secondary area of convection over western
Arkansas as of 300 AM. This activity quickly diminished, likely
due to a lack of atmospheric recovery between the two convective
lines. The greater threat for severe this morning exists with the
leading line of thunderstorms.

A brief lull in thunderstorm activity will occur late-morning and
last into the early afternoon hours. Gusty southwest winds will
aid in rapid atmospheric recovery with the HREF depicting SBCAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg by 1PM. In addition, dewpoints will
remain in the low 70s with bulk shear around 50 kts. On paper,
this environment favors upscale supercellular growth with all
severe weather hazards at play. However, further digging reveals
one fail mode for today's storms: lack luster mid level lapse
rates. In fact, the HREF only paints a 20% chance of 700-500 mb
lapse rates exceeding 6.0 C/km today. This will be a limiting
factor for storms. However, given minimal CIN and abundant CAPE,
large hail and damaging winds are not out of the question.

Initially, storms will be supercellular in nature. The greatest
chance for a strong tornado or two exists within the first few
cells that develop and can tap into the uncontaminated
environment. As we approach the evening hours, these storms will
congeal into a messy line. A few embedded supercells may occur at
this time, but the primary concern will be damaging winds within
bowing segments. This activity will exit the area by 10PM.

Beyond today, the remainder of the work week will be splendid as a
cold front ushers in lower dewpoints and highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Additional rain chances return this weekend and will
continue into next week. Stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread east
through midday. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will
move across the region during the afternoon and into the early
evening. Mainly VFR ceilings are expected outside of thunderstorms
with MVFR ceilings in the vicinity of them. South winds 10 to 15
kts with gusts near 25 kts will prevail today, shifting from the
west to northwest around 10 knots tonight as cold front moves
across the region. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites
by midnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
927 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Byhalia           34.83N 89.71W
05/20/2025                   Marshall           MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down on Strickland Road. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

MJ

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