Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Memphis, TN
NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2025, 7:24 AM CDT for Lake County, Obion County, Tennessee; Clay County, Greene County, Arkansas. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2025, 7:24 AM CDT (12:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2025, 8:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 51 min
- Issued by
- NWS Memphis, TN
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Clay County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lake County, TN, Obion County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2582 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -44 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 697 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 189 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 329 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 4.2
- Supercell composite
- 17.2
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 6:35 AM CDT, 49 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 629 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
- A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight with strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, damaging winds and very large hail.
- An Enhanced (3 out of 5) to Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather is in effect across the northern half of the Mid- South this afternoon into tonight.
- Saturday will be mostly dry and warm.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday night through the middle of next week with chances for severe storms each day, especially Tuesday.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 6:35 AM CDT, 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight with strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, damaging winds and very large hail. - An Enhanced (3 out of 5) to Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather is in effect across the northern half of the Mid- South this afternoon into tonight. - Saturday will be mostly dry and warm. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday night through the middle of next week with chances for severe storms each day, especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The active spring continues across the Mid-South. Currently we are monitoring a mid level jet moving across the region this morning which will serve to enhance lift and weaken the cap in place across the region. Convection has been struggling so far but the latest CAMs indicate robust development over the next few hours. The airmass is very unstable with MLCAPES of 2500-3500 J/kg. Shear is plenty sufficient for organized storms with 0-6km bulk shear values of 60-70 kts. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds but the low level thermodynamics could also support a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 am roughly north of I-40. This activity will push east in Middle TN by mid morning as the upper support lifts out. The airmass almost immediately recovers as gusty SSW winds continue to advect warm, moist air into the Mid-South. The airmass becomes very unstable by the afternoon with dewpoints in the lower 70s and enormous MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg. A cold front approaches the region this afternoon as a mid level jet moves into the Mid-MS Valley. This feature will provide the lift to trigger storms along and just ahead of the front late this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear values of 50-60 kts this afternoon and evening with 0-1km helicity values increasing to well over 200 m2/s2 will support organized storms. These storms will likely be discrete with all hazards expected including strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, very large hail and damaging winds. The lift across the Mid-South is not overwhelming strong which will serve to keep the storms at least semi-discrete as they gradually form into a line during the evening. This will keep the strong tornado threat going well into the evening hours especially along and north of the TN/MS border. The higher end severe threat will end by about midnight as storms move into Middle TN. A lower end severe threat will continue across north MS as convection lingers there until about 4 am. The front/boundary along with associated convection will push well south of the region by Saturday. The Mid-South will be in between systems and should squeak out a pretty nice, warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday afternoon. The front/boundary will lift back north into the area starting Saturday night and remain over the region into early next week. This will result in unsettled weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with a low end severe threat. Expect a more organized severe risk by Tuesday as a potent mid level trough pushes across the region along with its associated cold front. Dry and cool weather is expected in the wake of Tuesday's system as a deep upper trough is carved out across the eastern US with NW flow developing across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The main concern this TAF period is thunderstorm development through tonight. Kept PROB30 groups in TAFs for now as confidence for VC mention remains too low, depending on where storms fire this evening. CIGs will bounce between VFR and MVFR as storms move through the area. Otherwise, expect elevated winds today: gusting to 30kts. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ANS
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 16, 5:32 AM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
532 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 AM Hail Mcdougal 36.44N 90.39W
05/16/2025 E1.75 Inch Clay AR Public
Time is radar estimated.
&&Local storm report, May 16, 5:43 AM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
543 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0532 AM Hail 3 SW Walcott 36.01N 90.70W
05/16/2025 M1.00 Inch Greene AR Public
Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).
&&Local storm report, May 16, 5:47 AM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
547 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 AM Hail 2 W Paragould 36.06N 90.55W
05/16/2025 M1.00 Inch Greene AR Public
&&Local storm report, May 16, 5:54 AM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM Hail 2 NNE Paragould 36.08N 90.50W
05/16/2025 M2.00 Inch Greene AR Public
Time is radar estimated.
&&Local storm report, May 16, 6:02 AM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
602 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0507 AM Hail 2 SE Malden 36.55N 89.96W
05/16/2025 M1.75 Inch Dunklin MO Public
Corrects previous hail report from 2 SE
Malden. Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75
in.).
&&Local storm report, May 16, 7:09 AM CDT, 15 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
709 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0625 AM Hail 5 E Glennonville 36.57N 90.07W
05/16/2025 M1.00 Inch Dunklin MO Public
Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 7:51 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MEG | Dyer, Lauderdale | 39 min |
| May 16, 7:56 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Dyer, Lauderdale, Tipton | 49 min |
| May 16, 8:15 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Dyer, Gibson, Henry, Lake, Obion, Weakley | 60 min |
| May 16, 9:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Benton, Carroll, Gibson, Henry, Obion, Weakley | 33 min |
| May 16, 3:59 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay | 46 min |
| May 16, 4:37 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay | 38 min |
| May 16, 5:27 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay, Craighead, Greene | 63 min |
| May 16, 6:21 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay | 24 min |
| May 16, 6:25 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay, Greene | 50 min |
| May 16, 7:18 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Craighead, Cross, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett | 42 min |
| May 16, 6:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay | 64 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2025Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2025Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.