Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
655 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Midsouth today.
  During the early morning, large hail will be the primary severe
  threat, mainly west of the Mississippi River. After midmorning,
  damaging winds will become the primary severe weather threat.

- Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue
  late tonight through Sunday afternoon, mainly to the north and
  east of Memphis.

- Cool temperatures will prevail Saturday through early Monday.
  Most of the Midsouth will see highs in the 60s Sunday, and lows
  in the upper 40s Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

The primary forecast concern remains thunderstorm coverage and
timing through this evening.

An east/west band of storms had formed along an elevated warm
front over central AR early this morning. These storms were semi-
discrete, presenting a marginal hail threat as they lifted northeast.

06Z HRRR depicted ample mixed layer CAPE, in excess of 2500 J/kg
over much of the Midsouth by late morning. A belt of 50+kt 700mb
winds are depicted along and north of the I-40 corridor by midday,
coinciding with 0-6 km bulk shear of 45+ knots. However the 06Z
HRRR missed the aforementioned early morning storms over AR,
limiting confidence in short term convective evolution. Where the
airmass isn't modified, midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will
support large hail where storms remain discrete.

The steep lapse rates will weaken through the morning, and expect
the primary threat to shift to damaging winds as the stronger
kinematics arrive. The wind threat will push to the TN River by
mid-afternoon. With the continuation of upstream height falls,
the severe weather threat will shift south of I-40 this evening,
focused near an advancing surface cold front. Severe threat should
end over northeast MS mid/late evening, as the low level warm
sector moves into AL.

The Midsouth will remain under an upper level cut-off low through
the weekend. This low will be centered over the mid-Mississippi
and lower Ohio River Valley, and will constitute the eastern leg
of an Omega blocking pattern. Diurnally-enhanced showers will be
possible under this low, especially to the north and east of
Memphis through Sunday. Cloud cover and cold air aloft will
result in surface temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.

The Omega blocking pattern will shift slightly east early next
week, placing the Midsouth under brief ridging aloft on Tuesday.
Tuesday's highs should average near normal.

Medium range guidance is consistent in depicting an ejecting
shortwave from Texas into the lower MS River Valley Tuesday
night. With PWATs around 1.8 inches and diffluent flow aloft,
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially south of I-40.

Unsettled weather will likely continue late next week, as the
western U.S. upper low moves into the Great Plains and the
Midsouth remains under the subtropical branch of the upper jet.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

An upper low pressure system will bring several distinct rounds of
SHRA/TSRA over the next 18 hours or so. The first wave of ongoing
thunderstorms is associated with an elevated warm front. This will
be closely followed by the main event, a large bowing thunderstorm
segment along the cold front that will push through early
afternoon. After the main line of thunderstorms has exited the
region, a broad area of showers will rotate about the upper low as
it tracks directly over the airspace. These three distinct
features are the reason the precip groups in the TAFs at all sites
are quite messy.

With respect to ceilings, confidence in post-frontal IFR
increases the farther east you go. Have not included anything
lower than MVFR at MEM for now but there may be a brief 2-3 hour
window after 00Z tonight where CIGs drop below 1 kft. Overall, the
general trend of ceilings is VFR through midday and a gradual
decline to MVFR/IFR as the upper low approaches this evening.
Winds generally remain southwesterly 5-10 kts through tomorrow
morning. Behind the front, a gradual shift around to the northwest
will take place after sunrise Saturday as all sites return to
VFR.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD

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