River Flood Warning 89, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
657 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  Thursday. The chances for severe thunderstorms will remain
  limited, but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
  possible each day, particularly during the daytime hours.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late next week, with heat
  indices of 100 to 105 expected by next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low
centered near St. Louis, with a trough axis extending to the
Arklatex. 00Z regional upper air soundings showed PWAT values
have decreased to 1.7 inches, as drier midlevel air had entrained
into the upper trough. Though reduced, these PWAT values are near
the 75th climatological percentile and are more than adequate for
flash flooding. 00Z HRRR depicts the MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg from
east central AR through north MS late this afternoon where
greatest storm coverage is expected. Areas outside of north MS may
see a break from storms tonight, as the boundary layer stabilizes
and weak midlevel shortwave ridging builds in from the north.

A weak amplitude upper level trough will remain over the lower MS
River Valley Sunday through Tuesday, as PWAT increases to over 2
inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, with
flash flooding and strong winds possible during the daylight
hours.

The western U.S. upper ridge/heat dome that was expected to
arrive midweek will be delayed by a progressive upper level
trough lifting through the Great Plains and Midwest. An
associated cold front will sag into the Midsouth late Wednesday
night into Thursday, providing a focus for thunderstorm
development. Wednesday afternoon will still likely be hot, with
prefrontal moisture driving heat indices the upper 90s.

Following Thursday's storms, the front will wash out on Friday as
a 594 dam 500mb ridge over the southern plains expands eastward.
By Saturday, global model consensus shows the upper ridge amplifying
over the lower and middle MS River Valley, with 500 mb heights
reaching 595 dam. Mid 90s high temps are forecast for Saturday
along with mid 70s dewpoints. This will likely drive heat indices
over 100 over much of the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

This is essentially a persistence forecast as the upper low
continues to rotate about the Tennessee Valley. Once again, this
is a bonafide VCSH/VCTS scenario for the vast majority of the
period; CAMs paint a very sporadic convective regime with a few
windows of more organized TSRA. Winds remain from the south 5-10
kts today and will most likely go sub-5 kts or even calm
overnight. The ample amount of moisture present in these
conditions nudges toward overnight fog, but given the heavy cirrus
cloud cover, this isn't necessarily a slam dunk fog event at this
time. Details will become more clear with subsequent TAF cycles.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High humidity and light winds will prevail through the middle of
next week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each
day. Hot and humid conditions are forecast for late next week,
along with very light winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
834 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

ARZ049-058-141400-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-
834 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTH
CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 834 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alfrey, or 8 miles south of Brinkley, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marvell, Moro, Aubrey, Garret Grove, Turkey Scratch, Vineyard, Oak
Forest, Thomasville, Big Creek Corner, and Felton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9110 3482 9079 3453 9091 3460 9105
      3473 9105 3474 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 281DEG 13KT 3477 9116

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AEH