Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Memphis, TN

556 
WWUS84 KMEG 202027
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

.Elevated 20 ft winds up to 25 mph, low fuel moisture near
10 percent, and minimum relative humidity values as low as
20 percent will result in Red Flag conditions Friday afternoon.

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-210830-
/O.CON.KMEG.FW.W.0003.250321T1500Z-250322T0000Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-
327 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES... GUSTY WINDS... AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURE FOR THE MISSIOURI BOOTHEEL AND EAST ARKANSAS...

* WIND... Southerly sustained 20 ft winds up to 20 mph with 
  gustsup to 30 mph. 

* HUMIDITY... Relative humidity values as low as 20 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE... Fuel moisture near 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

508 
WWUS84 KMEG 210316 AAA
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1016 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

.Elevated 20 ft winds up to 25 mph, low fuel moisture near
10 percent, and minimum relative humidity values as low as
20 percent will result in Red Flag conditions Friday afternoon.

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-211000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FW.W.0003.250321T1500Z-250322T0000Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-
1016 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LOW FUEL
MOISTURE FOR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EAST ARKANSAS...

* WIND... Southerly sustained 20 ft winds up to 20 mph with 
  gustsup to 30 mph. 

* HUMIDITY... Relative humidity values as low as 20 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE... Fuel moisture near 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

584 
WWUS84 KMEG 210810 AAA
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

.Red Flag conditions will develop today as a result of 20 foot 
wind speeds up to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph, low fuel moisture, 
and minimum relative humidity values as low as 20 percent.

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-220000-
/O.CON.KMEG.FW.W.0003.250321T1500Z-250322T0000Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-
310 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...
AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...

* WIND... Southerly sustained 20 ft winds up to 20 mph with 
  gust sup to 30 mph. 

* HUMIDITY... Relative humidity values as low as 20 percent.

* FUEL MOISTURE... Fuel moisture near 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

PWB

461 
WWUS84 KMEG 212335
RFWMEG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7PM THIS EVENING...

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-220045-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250322T0000Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-
635 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY... AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE
FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

- Gusty winds are forecast today, but wind speeds will be
  considerably lower than Wednesday.

- Wildfire danger will remain elevated across the Midsouth today
  and Friday, aided by low humidity, gusty winds and relatively
  dry vegetation.

- Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday,
  mainly over east central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level
trough extending from the Great Lakes through the MS River
Valley. Midlevel clouds spread into the Midsouth early this
morning, in advance of the upper trough axis. These clouds may
bear light rain showers through the morning, mainly east of the MS
River. The air below this cloud deck will remain dry with
dewpoints in the 20s and lower 30s. This should limit chances for
measurable rainfall.

The dry air and moderately gusty northwest winds will result in
elevated wildfire danger today, especially once clouds clear this
afternoon. By midafternoon the low level pressure gradient will
begin to relax, resulting in moderating wind speeds.

A surface pressure ridge axis will translate across the Midsouth
tonight, setting the stage for prime radiational cooling. This
will be particularly so near the TN River, in close proximity to
the surface pressure ridge axis in the 09-12Z time frame. Surface
return flow will commence north of I-40 prior to sunrise Friday,
with overnight lows possibly occurring several hours prior to
sunrise.

Southerly return flow will overspread all the Midsouth on Friday,
in advance of an open upper level trough traversing the middle and
upper MS River Valley. This trough will have little impact on the
Midsouth, other than bringing fast zonal flow aloft and a weak
stalled surface cold front in its wake.

Southerly low level flow will redevelop and strengthen Saturday,
bringing warmer dewpoints and moderated wildfire danger. By
Saturday night, a deepening upper low will move into the northern
Great Plains and upper Midwest. South of this feature, the belt
of westerlies across the central Great Plains and mid-MS River
Valley will strengthen. A surface low and attendant cold front
will track across MO, in tandem with a midlevel trough axis. This
front will progress through the Midsouth on Sunday, as the upper
trough deepens over the Great Lakes and OH River Valley. The front
will encounter sufficiently moist and unstable air to support
thunderstorms along the front. Yesterday's 12Z LREF depicted a 50
percent chance or greater of 750 J/kg surface CAPE and 30KT of
deep layer bulk shear over east central AR and northwest MS.
Deterministic runs of the 00Z ECMWF and GFS depict greater CAPE,
with the former showing 1000 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE as far north
as the I-40 corridor Sunday afternoon.

Upstream height falls over the central high plains will carve out
a longwave trough, that will cover the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS by Monday morning. This will result in a moderate cooldown
early next week, with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty northwest
winds will become light by this evening and increase to south
winds 7-11 kts by late Friday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1224 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Senath              36.09N 90.15W
03/15/2025                   Dunklin            MO   Public

            Roof peeled off a garage and several wood
            power poles down on Highway N near County
            Road 649.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     Hail             3 SSE Senath            36.09N 90.15W
03/15/2025  E1.25 Inch       Dunklin            MO   Public

            Video of half-dollar sized hail occurred
            along Highway N.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flash Flood      3 SSW Tishomingo        34.59N 88.25W
03/15/2025                   Tishomingo         MS   Emergency Mngr

            A portion of County Road 961 was washed out.
            Time estimated.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Flash Flood      6 NNE Sandy Springs     34.52N 88.35W
03/15/2025                   Prentiss           MS   Emergency Mngr

            Several county roads were damaged by
            floodwaters. County Road 4274 was completely
            washed out. Time estimated.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1246 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Flash Flood      Mantachie               34.32N 88.49W
03/15/2025                   Itawamba           MS   Emergency Mngr

            Significant flooding was observed in the
            Mantachie area. Several homes and structures
            around the school were damaged by
            floodwaters. Time is estimated.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
104 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Flash Flood      Lexington               35.65N 88.39W
03/15/2025                   Henderson          TN   Public

            Flooding reported across Lexington. Several
            roads were washed out. Time estimated.

&&

MJ