Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1042 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

- A secondary dry cold front will move through the Mid-South
  today. Colder, below normal temperatures are expected for the
  remainder of the weekend.

- A warming trend is expected for Monday and Tuesday. A powerful
  storm system will move through the region on Tuesday with severe
  thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Dry weather and seasonal temperatures will return to the Mid-
  South for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this morning with
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s. One cold
front moved through the region overnight and is across central
Mississippi. A second cold front has started moving into northern
sections of the region. Like the front that moved through overnight,
no rain is expected ahead of this second front. Behind the second
front, very dry air will move into the region with dewpoints in
the teens to lower 20s. With this air in place tonight,
temperatures will drop some 20 to 30 degrees from this afternoon
with lows Sunday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Current
forecast looks good with no changes needed.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

Latest surface analysis places a cold front from the Ohio Valley
back through the Red River Valley in Texas and Oklahoma. A
secondary cold front stretches from eastern Ontario back along the
I-70 corridor in Missouri. GOES-16 satellite shows a few mid to
high clouds along this first front with mostly clear skies
prevailing elsewhere.

Cooler temperatures are expected across the Mid-South today as a
secondary cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 40s to around 50
degrees near the TN/KY border, and upper 50s to lower 60s south.
No precipitation is expected with a dry atmosphere already in
place across the area. Minimum relative humidity values are
forecast to drop to 25 to 30 percent this afternoon. Excellent
radiational cooling with a surface high settling over the Ohio
River Valley will result in temperatures falling back into the
middle 20s to lower 30s across the Mid-South. Lows tonight were
trended down towards the NBM 25th percentile with the dry
atmosphere in place.

A compact upper-level low currently along the southern California
coast will gradually transition to an open wave shortwave trough
as it moves across portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valleys on Monday. This will result in some rain showers
especially along and west of the Mississippi River with rainfall
amounts remaining relatively light.

Long-term operational and ensemble models continue to indicate a
strong upper-level low with an associated surface low moving from
the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday night.
Strong deep layer shear and impressive mid-level height falls
will provide the necessary forcing for showers and thunderstorms
across the Mid-South. However, the main question at this point
will be the quality of instability that may regulate the extent
of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South. The main
threats are damaging winds, a potential for some tornadoes, along
with heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind
the front for the middle of next week with rain chances returning
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace as high pressure
remains in place. North winds will gust up to 25 kts across all
terminals today as a secondary cold front pushes across the Mid-
South. Gusts will drop out shortly after sunset as winds shift
northeast.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH