Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- A cold front will push into the region tonight, bringing a
  couple of rounds of strong to severe storms. A Slight Risk of
  severe weather is in effect for east Arkansas, the Missouri
  Bootheel, West Tennessee and extreme northwest Mississippi
  through the overnight period.

- Strong to severe storms will continue across north Mississippi
  into mid morning on Thursday.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Currently...A very warm, moist and unstable airmass is in place
across the Mid-South ahead of an approaching cold front located
roughly along the I-44 corridor in MO. An old outflow boundary sits
from NW TN into east-central AR. Dewpoints range from the mid to
upper 70s with even some 80 degree readings along the KY/MO border.
MLCAPEs range from 2500 to 3000 J/kg across the entire region. 0-6
km bulk wind shear is fairly weak attm with most of the Mid-South
below 25 kts. Isolated convection is started to pop up thanks to
surface heating though it should remain below severe limits for
the next few hours.

The next upper level disturbance will push into the region late this
afternoon into this evening. This will result in an increase in wind
shear with 0-6 km values topping 30 kts in places. The latest hi-res
models show development along the old outflow boundary late this
afternoon into this evening along with additional development as the
front sags into the area overnight. Storm mode is trending toward
clusters and segments through much of the night. Given the amount of
instability and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg the main threat will
be damaging winds though large hail may accompany some storms. The
environment does not seem particular conducive to tornadoes with
weak UH tracks though 0-1km helicity values greater than 100 m2/s2
could support a tornado so do not want to completely discount that
threat.

Later tonight as the front basically stalls and becomes parallel to
the upper flow, the convection becomes more E-W. This seems to
happen initially just north of the TN/MS state border around 3 am with
the line eventually sagging south through north MS into mid-morning
Thursday.

Precip water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches across the area will result
in some very heavy rainfall rates at times overnight. Any storms
that train over the same area could result in an isolated flash
flood threat.

Upper ridging will build into the region through the end of the week
with heat and humidity building. Heat index readings will top 100
degrees by the end of the week and then 105 degrees this weekend.
Heat advisories will probably be needed. The heat will continue into
next week as latest models indicate upper level high pressure over
the SE US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Scattered showers are quickly developing across western Arkansas,
moving east at around 25 kts. This motion alone would bring showers
or thunderstorms into eastern Arkansas around 03Z. However, the
atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable in east Arkansas and
across the remainder of the Midsouth. As a result, additional
development is expected and will likely result in earlier impact,
especially at JBR and MEM. Outside of direct TS impacts, cigs
should remain VFR through the TAF cycle.

Southwest winds tonight 10-15 kts may gust over 20 kts. Winds
will shift from the west to northwest tomorrow 5-10 kts and below
5 kts tomorrow night. VFR conditions will prevail at JBR, MEM and
MKL most of tomorrow into tomorrow night. Storms may linger near
TUP through midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A cold front will move into the region tonight bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. Hot
and humid conditions will move in Friday through the weekend with
temperatures rising into the lower to mid 90s. There are no fire
weather concerns in the near future as humidities and fuel
moistures remain high.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JDS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     Hail             5 W Hughes              34.95N 90.56W
06/18/2025  M1.25 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Trained Spotter

&&

DNM