Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Memphis, TN

408 
WGUS74 KMEG 052039
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
239 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

TNC097-052049-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250205T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lauderdale TN-
239 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3570 8995 3583 8953 3565 8950 3567 8983

$$

AC3

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Mild and unsettled weather will prevail over the Midsouth today,
as a warm front lifts through the region. An upper level low
pressure trough will pass through the middle Mississippi River
Valley, which will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms
over the Midsouth today. The front will return as a cold front
late Thursday, and return north as a warm front on early Saturday.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day. Next
week will see cooler temperatures prevail behind a stronger cold
frontal passage on Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Mild and unsettled weather will continue across the Midsouth
through Saturday, under fast quasi-zonal flow aloft. For today, a
warm front will lift north ahead of an upper trough passing
through the mid-MS River Valley. Warm advection showers will
provide a relatively high PoP / low QPF event. Modest CAPE, below
500 J/kg, will support isolated thunderstorms over north MS,
perhaps into west TN this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear of 40-45kt
will provide convective organization potential. Additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late tonight and
Thursday, as the cold front drops back into the Midsouth. Nearly
zonal upper level flow will continue, and the Midsouth will be
under the right exit region of an upper jet streak. In general,
the pattern does not appear favorable for strong or persistent
synoptic scale lift on Thursday. As such QPF remains modest.

The status quo will continue Friday, before a moderately amplified
upper level trough passes through the upper Midwest on Saturday.
After this feature passes through the Great Lakes Saturday night,
a stronger cold front will pass through the Midsouth, backed by a
1034mb surface pressure ridge over the central and northern Great
Plains. Initially strong frontal forcing over the Midsouth will
encounter PWAT values near 1.3 inches, around the 90th percentile
of climatology. 00Z/05 LREF mean CAPE is progged at or below 100
J/kg, indicating limited thunder potential.

Fast west-southwest flow aloft will prevail Sunday through the
middle of next week. Although the post frontal airmass will
modify, daytime temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below
normal, due to cloud cover and additional periods of rainfall
north of a stalled surface front.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A warm front continues to lift north across the region this
morning. VFR conditions have returned to TUP as the front has
recently cleared the area. Elsewhere, IFR and LIFR conditions will
persist through late afternoon. Above this ceiling, isolated to
scattered TSRAs will move near MEM, MKL and JBR this afternoon. A
lull in SHRA activity is expected this evening, with renewed
scattered SHRAs and TSRAs overnight.

Winds will remain southerly through the period at all sites. Winds
will shift back around to the north late tomorrow afternoon as the front
sags back south.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ113-115.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>013-015>017-020>024.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for TNZ001-002-019-048-
     049-088.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AC3