Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

700 
WGUS74 KMEG 302210
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
410 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

ARC021-055-MOC069-155-302220-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250130T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay AR-Greene AR-Dunklin MO-Pemiscot MO-
410 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CLAY, NORTHEASTERN GREENE, DUNKLIN AND 
PEMISCOT COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9022 3661 9017 3663 9013 3663 8996
      3639 8997 3638 8976 3643 8973 3640 8967
      3641 8961 3634 8955 3632 8962 3626 8953
      3625 8970 3615 8959 3606 8968 3612 9025
      3617 9023 3627 9069 3650 9061

$$

CMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Showers continue to impact portions of the Mid-South this morning,
mainly along a line north of I-40. MRMS estimates over the past 3
hours depict about 0.50 - 0.75 inches of rainfall in areas of
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Continual rainfall
may result in flooding concerns as rivers and streams rise near
bankfull.

The severe weather threat for this evening remains low due to a
lack of instability. However, a storm or two may become strong to
severe with damaging winds the primary concern.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the Mid-South
today ahead of a cold front which will move across Arkansas.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible today with 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall expected mainly north of I-40. Dry weather and above
normal temperatures are expected starting Friday and continuing
through the weekend and into the beginning of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Light rain showers
cover a large portion of the region at this time. A low pressure
system is located over northeast Texas with a cold front extending
south from the low.

The low will track northeast today with the cold front reaching
central Arkansas by this evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue to move across the region today. There could be a
couple of strong thunderstorms over extreme southwest sections of
the Mid-South with some gusty winds possible. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible today mainly over areas of the Mid-South
north of I-40 where 2 to 4 inches of precipitation could fall. A
Flood Watch remain in effect for these areas for today and
tonight. Temperatures will be rather mild today with highs in the
lower 60s to around 70 degrees.

The surface low will continue to move northeast tonight bringing
the cold front through the Mid-South. Additional showers and a few
thunderstorms will move through the region ahead of the cold
front. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows
Friday morning in the low to mid 50s.

A few showers are possible over portions of northwest Tennessee
Friday afternoon as an upper level low slides across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, dry and
warm weather is expected for the remainder of the Mid-South on
Friday with highs in the 60s.

The upper level pattern become more zonal starting Friday night
and continuing through the weekend. This will result in dry
weather with above normal temperatures for Friday night through
Tuesday night. A cold front will move toward the region from the
north on Wednesday. As a surface low moves along the front, some
scattered showers may move across the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Messy TAF period with conditions generally fluctuating between
MVFR and IFR as SHRA moves through today and tonight. Locations
along and north of I-40 will see the bulk of SHRA this afternoon,
with SHRA not impacting north MS likely until this evening. All
precip will move out of the area by 12Z with gradual improvements
back to VFR near the end of the current TAF period.

S/SE winds will remain elevated through at least 12Z for most of
the area, with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts at times. Wind speeds
will begin to decrease behind the frontal boundary, becoming SW
as well.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ001>004-019-020-048-051.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CMA