Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Another round of severe weather is expected today across the
  Mid-South especially east of the Mississippi River. All hazards
  are possible including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large
  hail. A couple of tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked
  over northeast Mississippi. Additional heavy rainfall may result
  in flash flooding across portions of West Tennessee and
  Northeast Mississippi. Additional storms will form this morning
  and persist through this evening.

- Dry weather returns to the Mid-South for Sunday through Tuesday.
  Temperatures will cool on Sunday before warming back into the
  low to mid 70s by Tuesday.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible by the middle
  of next week as another upper-level trough moves through the
  Mississippi Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

GOES-16 satellite trends indicate a negatively-tilted trough
departing the Mid-South early this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar
trends show showers and thunderstorms continuing mainly over north
Mississippi. Elsewhere, upstream convective activity to the west
has diminished briefly due to a lack of upper-level support.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT range from the middle 60s to lower
70s.

A very active and dangerous day is expected across the Mid-South
as another potent shortwave trough rotates through the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Latest trends suggest instability should
recover across the Mid-South today as strong low-level jet advects
additional low level moisture up into the region. Very steep mid-
level lapse rates, moderate instability, and deep layer shear are
supportive for the development of additional severe thunderstorms
across the area. In addition, short-term model soundings show
favorable hodographs to produce all hazards across the area,
especially across northeast Mississippi where the potential may
exist for strong, long track tornadoes. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may result in the potential for flash flooding
across portions of West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi where
a Flood watch remains in effect.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually come to an end this
evening as high pressure builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley
through early next week. Long-term models indicate the
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Difficult TAF set this go around. Thunderstorms will continue to
impact JBR/MEM/MKL through this afternoon. A brief lull in
convective activity will occur as the main line passes. A surface
low will give lift to another round of convection late this
evening through around 07Z, impacting all terminals. TEMPOs for -TSRA
and lowered vsbys have been added to include such. Once this
surface low clears the Mid-South, MVFR/IFR conditions will stay
in place. Winds will gust up to 25 kts behind this same low across
all TAF sites.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ003>006-009-013>017-
     021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ004-021-022-052>055-
     090>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
905 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 E Blytheville         35.93N 89.83W
03/15/2025  M58 MPH          Mississippi        AR   ASOS

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1049 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Pocahontas          35.05N 88.79W
03/15/2025                   McNairy            TN   Public

            winds lofted a carport in Pocahontas.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     Hail             4 ENE Taylor            34.29N 89.51W
03/15/2025  M1.00 Inch       Lafayette          MS   Public

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Walcott             35.98N 90.66W
03/15/2025                   Greene             AR   Broadcast Media

            Several trees were uprooted or snapped near
            the Finch community at the intersection of
            County Road 737 and County Road 721.
            Possible tornado.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1237 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     Hail             3 S Water Valley        34.12N 89.62W
03/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Yalobusha          MS   Public

            Quarter size hail reported on County Road
            220.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
102 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Kennett           36.23N 90.06W
03/15/2025                   Dunklin            MO   Public

            Reported numerous large trees uprooted and
            on peoples homes. Worst damage is around
            Jones Park in Kennett, MO. Some trees
            snapped and debarking of trees also
            occurred. Possible tornado damage.

&&

AEH