Extreme Cold Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, Phillips County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1126 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

- Heavy mixed precipitation has mostly changed over to snow. As
  much as 5 inches of snow is forecast for areas along the KY/TN
  state line through Wednesday morning. 1 to 3 inches of snow is
  forecast along the I-40 corridor, with lesser amounts to the
  south. Only light glazing of ice is expected from freezing rain,
  mainly in north Mississippi.

- The winter storm system will likely bring banded areas of snow,
  with accumulations varying more than usual over short
  distances. Sleet along and south of I-40 will also have the
  potential to reduce snow accumulations, while making travel
  hazardous.

- Bitterly cold temperatures will spread through the Midsouth
  Wednesday and persist through the early weekend. Wind chills
  will drop to the single digits areawide Wednesday morning.
  Thursday morning's wind chills will drop below zero north of
  I-40, to the around zero south of I-40. A Cold Weather Advisory
  is in effect for the next two mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

At midafternoon, KLZK radar showed wintry precipitation underway
over much of AR, downstream an open longwave trough over the
southern high plains. GOES IR and water vapor imagery showed
banded areas of lift extending well downstream of the upper trough.

Little has changed in the short range guidance, with respect to
snow potential. NBM deterministic snow amounts remain below LREF,
though both ensemble systems are likely smoothing the snow
banding potential. Official snow forecast is near the NBM 75th
percentile. Locally higher (and lower) accumulations are likely as
frontogentic bands set up this evening and early overnight.

Adding the forecast uncertainty is evening sleet potential along
and south of I-40. The official snow forecast exhibits a rather
sharp southern gradient along and just south of I-40. Winter
weather headlines remain unchanged from this morning.

There is greater certainty with respect to bitterly cold temperatures
from tonight through Saturday morning. As the snow tapers off and
exits east of the TN River Saturday morning, a 1054mb Arctic
surface pressure ridge center will start it's southward track
through the northern Great Plains, while the leading edge of the
Arctic air enters the FL panhandle. This airmass will take several
days to lift out of the Midsouth, despite upper level pattern
deamplification. Saturday afternoon appears to be our first time
above freezing, but perhaps only barely so over northeast AR, the
MO bootheel and northwest TN.

Eventually, snow will melt and temps will return to near normal
under quasi-zonal west-northwest flow aloft early next week.
Thereafter, upper level pattern trends appear more dicey, with
the GEFS and EPS ensemble means depicting another longwave trough
over the eastern U.S.. Such a pattern would return below normal
temperatures to the Midsouth, while well above normal conditions
prevail over the western half of the CONUS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Precipitation has already transitioned over to snow
resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites except TUP. A sleet
and snow mixture will develop and affect TUP in the next few
hours. Conditions should gradually improve to MVFR conditions
around or after sunrise when wintry precipitation ends. VFR
conditions anticipated to begin returning early Thursday morning
at JBR and MEM. Gusty N/NNE winds expected through much of the
period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ049-058.

MO...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
     for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>052-088.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
     for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ053>055-
     089>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1117 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     Snow             Springville             36.25N 88.15W
02/18/2025  M2.7 Inch        Henry              TN   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1119 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     Snow             2 ENE Olive Branch      34.97N 89.79W
02/18/2025  M1.2 Inch        DeSoto             MS   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1139 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     Snow             5 SSE Big Sandy         36.17N 88.05W
02/18/2025  M1.0 Inch        Benton             TN   Trained Spotter

&&

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