Wind Advisory 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

229 
WWUS74 KMAF 041840
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
140 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

TXZ059>062-067>069-075-082-274-278-279-050600-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-250505T0600Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Ward-Crane-Upton-Pecos-Terrell-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster-
Including the cities of Mentone, Crane, Dryden, Odessa, Rankin,
Pecos, Fort Stockton, Kermit, Alpine, Monahans, Big Bend National
Park, Marathon, Midland, Panther Junction, McCamey, and Sanderson
140 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

- Isolated strong storms possible for the Davis Mountains this
  afternoon (20-40%), then Sunday afternoon across southeast New
  Mexico and the Davis Mountains (30-60%).

- Higher storm chances (60-90%) Monday night, especially for the
  Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos regions. A few severe storms are
  expected, as well as the potential for some flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025

A beautiful afternoon is underway with temperatures mostly in the
70s. We are monitoring a weak disturbance that will move across the
Davis Mountains over the next few hours. Upslope flow and returning
moisture will lead to the development of a few showers and storms
there. Some of these could be strong with small hail, but widespread
severe weather is not expected. Southeast winds increase overnight
helping to keep low temperatures more mild than what we saw this
morning. Most locations will bottom out in the 50 by Monday morning.

Sunday will be a transition day as southeasterly surface flow
increases considerably. This is due to a developing upper trough to
our west and lee surface troughing over the western Plains. Clouds
and increasing moisture will keep temperatures in check with highs
mostly in the 70s. An initial shortwave will rotate around the upper
trough and eject across NM by Sunday afternoon. Low level moisture
will be lacking, but shear and instability should be enough for a
few showers and storms to develop across SE NM. One or two of these
storms could be strong to severe with marginally severe hail and
strong wind gusts the main threats. Convective activity will shift
north of our area overnight as temperatures stay very mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025

Any lingering convection from Sunday night will have departed by
Monday morning. That afternoon, a dryline sharpens up over our
western counties (roughly near the southeast New Mexico and west
Texas border), extending down towards the Big Bend. Meanwhile, the
main upper-level trough nears the region. Lift associated with this
trough (along with difluence within the southwesterly flow) will
encourage thunderstorms to develop along the dryline. East of the
dryline, dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, and
great 0-6 km bulk shear (50-60 kts, up to 65 kts) will mean these
storms are initially going to be supercellular in nature. The main
hazards with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.
However, a tornado threat will exist as well, especially as the low-
level jet kicks in that evening and hodographs become more favorably
curved. These supercells will eventually coalesce into a line,
though where exactly that occurs remains questionable at this time
(right now, it looks like it will mainly affect the Permian Basin,
especially northernmost portions). In any case, Monday afternoon
through the overnight hours looks busy, and flash flooding may
become an addition concern given the ample moisture and potential
for some local downpours. Currently, PoPs range from 60-90%,
especially for the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos regions.

The trough continues to translate eastward Tuesday. Winds are
expected to be breezy initially (they will also be breezy Monday as
the system nears), but will diminish that evening as the system
departs. By Wednesday the system clears the region. Behind it comes
much drier and quieter weather under quasi-zonal/northwesterly flow
aloft as ridging builds out west, though a couple of lingering
showers/storms cannot be totally ruled out (10-30% chance,
especially in the terrain). Otherwise, temperatures remain quite
pleasant through the long term. Highs will be in the upper 70s and
low 80s generally, while lows will be in the 50s for most.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeast winds become
gusty Sunday afternoon, where gusts >30kts are expected at MAF, FST,
INK, and PEQ. Chances of rain also pickup Sunday afternoon into
evening, especially for CNM and HOB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  59  78  59 /  10  20  60  90
Carlsbad                 78  55  80  52 /  50  50  20  60
Dryden                   78  62  84  61 /  10  20  30  80
Fort Stockton            79  60  86  57 /  20  10  40  80
Guadalupe Pass           73  51  72  49 /  50  40  10  40
Hobbs                    74  55  78  50 /  30  50  40  80
Marfa                    80  50  81  48 /  20  10  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     76  61  81  57 /  10  20  50  90
Odessa                   75  61  81  57 /  10  20  50  90
Wink                     80  60  85  56 /  20  20  30  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
907 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025

TXZ277-278-040245-
Davis Mountains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
907 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 906 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Kent, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Jeff
Davis and central Culberson Counties, including State Highway 118
south of Kent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 10440 3094 10440 3100 10431 3102 10405
      3088 10402 3071 10404 3083 10433 3084 10433
      3085 10437 3088 10437 3088 10441 3090 10439
      3091 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 273DEG 17KT 3091 10433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1003 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Hail             6 NE Fort Davis         30.65N 103.84W
05/03/2025  M1.00 Inch       Jeff Davis         TX   Storm Chaser

            Report of hail up to quarter size covering
            the roadway along State Highway 17.

&&

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