Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Rain chances continue today, especially in the Davis Mountains
  (40-60% chance there, 20-40% chances for other locations west
  of the Pecos). Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and
  heavy downpours.

- A warming and drying trend continues through Sunday.

- Rain chances decrease this weekend into next week. The best
  chances (10-30%) will be in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge over the
southeastern CONUS, extending from central Texas to the Carolinas.
This upper-level ridge will allow temperatures to climb into the mid
to upper 90s for most with 80s in higher terrain. Rain chances
continue over higher terrain regions with highest probabilities of
showers/storms (40-60%) in the Davis Mountains as southeasterly
upslope flow combined with sufficient surface heating and a surface
trough axis extending from eastern New Mexico through west Texas are
forecast. Storms will likely pulse up and down given the weakly
sheared environment. Though widespread severe weather is not
expected, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out as PWAT values
near 1.3 (about the 75th percentile) may produce brief heavy
downpours, meaning that evaporational cooling and precipitation
loading effects may induce gusty winds upwards of 40 to 50 mph.

Rain chances (10-30%) diminish this evening into tonight. A low-
level jet (LLJ) is expected to develop and forecast soundings depict
an "inverted-V" profile up to about 700mb, meaning that mixing will
occur. This mixing along with increased cloud cover limits
radiational cooling effects. Overnight lows are forecast to be in
the upper 60s to low 70s for most.

Thicknesses increase Friday as ridging builds from the southeastern
CONUS. Expect high temperatures to be similar to yesterday's.
Chances of rain (10-30%) moves further west as the aforementioned
surface trough and ridge shifts westward. Friday night lows are
forecast to be similar to tonight's.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Ridging continues to build overhead this weekend, resulting in above
normal temperatures (2-4 F) Saturday and Sunday. Many locations will
see highs at or near the century mark Sunday. Rain chances (<20%)
decrease this weekend owning to increased subsidence. As per usual,
the chances of rain remain confined to the Davis Mountains and
surrounding areas. As noted in the previous Long Term discussion,
the ridge shifts further off to the east, decreasing temperatures a
degree or two except for our easternmost counties. By midweek,
heights decrease as the ridge continues to shift further to the east
and rain chances (20-50%) increase in the higher terrain and
surrounding areas. High temperatures top out near normal.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours.
Widely scattered TS will develop in the Davis and Guadalupe
mountains and could affect CNM. TS is expected to remain west of
the other TAF sites.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  95  71  97 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                   71  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  87  69  90 /  10  30  10  10
Hobbs                    69  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    64  90  63  91 /  30  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     72  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  96  71  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10