Severe Thunderstorm Warning 447, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures through the end
  of this week with any rainfall confined to the mountains.

- Near to below average high temperatures and increasing rain chances
  for Presidio Valley into Davis Mountains and western higher
  terrain of W TX and SE NM late this weekend into next week.

- Rainfall amounts next week uncertain, with near zero rain
  chances expected at this time east of Lea County and Upper
  Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

There is not much weather to speak of in the short-term. Mid-
level ridging holds strong over the Southern Great Plains for now.
Temperatures have returned to near-normal across the region after
a hot start to the week. Widespread middle to upper 90s are
expected this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon. Any 100s
will remain largely confined to the Rio Grande Valley. Overnight
temperatures continue to be a touch above normal with plentiful
moisture in place. Widespread upper 60s to lower 70s are to be
expected for most. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will be
the story for many with little exception. The only exception are
the higher elevations of the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains where
upslope winds may be enough to overcome a weak mid-level capping
inversion. Should anything develop, it will be isolated and
provide little rainfall. A gradual uptick in thunderstorm activity
looks to arrive during the long-term period as discussed below.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Continued warmth, but with cooler temperatures than last week,
and increasing chance of showers and storms west of Permian Basin
and eastern Stockton Plateau into Terrell County beginning late
this weekend and continuing into next week. Warmest temperatures
will be off to the east and northeast as the mid to upper ridge
responsible for last weekend's and this week's hot temperatures
builds to the east and northeast of the area. Deterministic and
ensemble models show near average geopotential heights above 588
decameters and 1000- 500 mb thicknesses between 576 and 582
decameters throughout the period, indicating near normal
temperatures for this time of year. However, troughing in heights
over the Rockies into Desert SW also indicates cooler air aloft
increasing instability. Before this pattern begins to amplify,
Saturday will feature one more day of high temperatures a few
degrees above average for mid to late June, translating to mid 90s
to triple digits Upper Trans Pecos into Eddy County Plains and
along the Rio Grande from Presidio Valley into Big Bend, upper 80s
to lower 90s higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

Highest PoPs 50% to 60% Davis Mountains into Presidio Valley with
low to medium 25% to 40% PoPs Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans
Pecos begin Sunday as coincident with amplified troughing, WPC
Surface Analysis depicts low pressure developing over this region
with a dryline/lee troughing near the surface extending north into
SE NM plains and south into N MX. This provides near surface
lift, and coupled with southerly winds shifting to southeasterly
ahead of this feature in response, advects more humid air with dew
point temperatures into the lower to mid 60s F, mid 50s F western
higher terrain. Combined with instability aloft, conditions will
be favorable for showers and storms to develop, although main
impacts of any storms are expected to remain limited to lightning,
gusty winds, and heavy rain at this time. Highest PoPs 40% to 60%
set up over far western portions of the area from Presidio Valley
into western Culberson and Eddy Counties and 25% to 40% PoPs
again from Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos Monday, with
25% to 40% PoPs thereafter Tuesday through the end of next week.
As a result of highest PoPs and associated cloud cover limiting
solar heating over far western portions of the area, highs will
range from 2 to 3 degrees above average over eastern and central
portions of the forecast area, to 2 to 3 degrees below average for
western higher terrain. This translates to 80s western higher
terrain and most of Lea County, mid to upper 90s Presidio Valley
into Terrell County, Upper Trans Pecos and northeast Permian
Basin, and lower to mid 90s elsewhere. The rain chances are
expected to be largely diurnally and topographically driven, with
higher PoPs over elevated terrain during the daytime and PoPs
decreasing below 20% even in western portions of the forecast area
overnight. Throughout the period as a result of WAA from gusty
southerly to southeasterly winds, dew point temperatures remaining
in the 50s to 60s F and scattered to broken cloud cover both
limiting radiational cooling overnight, lows falling into lower to
mid 70s, mid to upper 60s higher elevations, basins of Culberson
County, and most of Lea County into northwest Permian Basin are
forecast. This will be around 5 to 7 degrees above average for
this time of year. Fortunately, despite these warm low
temperatures, heat risk will remain low. Therefore, the main
impact in the long term will be moonsonal-like showers/storms over
western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and
evening.

There is a 50% to 70% probability in ensembles that regions west
of Davis Mountains and Lea County see 0.50" to 1.00" of rain, with
NBM grids showing similar but with highest amounts near or above
1.00" by the end of next week from Guadalupes into westernmost
Eddy County, and 0.50" to 0.60" most of Eddy County into Davis
Mountains and Presidio Valley. However, lowest percentile
ensembles only show a few tenths of an inch rainfall at most, so
rainfall amounts next week remain uncertain. We will continue to
monitor this upcoming rainfall event to see how this changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Scattered MVFR clouds will continue to erode over the next hour or
so at MAF and FST. VFR conditions and southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail for all terminals through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  96  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  98  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   74  96  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    69  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  89  64  89 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  98  72  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91