Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain
  of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Friday.

- A hot and dry weather pattern takes shape this weekend into the
  middle part of next week with temperatures reaching near to
  above 100 degrees over much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft continues as we lie on the backside of
an upper-level trough with ridging building out west. A few
disturbances rolling within this pattern along with upsloping
southeasterly surface winds will aid in the formation of isolated
(10-20%) showers and storms Friday, primarily in the vicinity of
the higher terrain and portions of the Permian Basin. A storm or
two could become strong to severe within the Permian Basin Friday
afternoon, with the main threats being damaging winds and hail.
Otherwise, temperatures tonight settle into the mid 60s/70s. Highs
Friday afternoon top out in the mid 90s to low 100s. Our hottest
spots will be near the Rio Grande, where highs are forecast to
reach or exceed 105 degrees. Friday night lows dip into the 70s
for most. More heat looks to be the trend heading into the long
term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Models are consistent in the long term showing an upper level
ridge over northern Mexico building north into the southwestern
United States bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions to
the area. Many locations will approach or exceed 100 degrees
starting Saturday and continuing into next week with the only
exceptions being the higher elevations west of the Pecos River
which should hold to the lower to middle 90s. The ridge will
remain in place until the middle of next week when a trough moving
across the northern Rockies brings lower heights and slightly
cooler temperatures. Rain chances will be almost nil in the
extended due to subsidence from the upper ridge.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 25 hours in light return flow.
Convection will be possible tonight KCNM/KHOB, but chances are too
low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  98  73 100 /   0  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 69  99  70 102 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   73  98  74  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  99  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  94  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    66  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                    64  94  65  94 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     71  98  73  99 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   71  97  73  98 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     71 101  72 102 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44