Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

- A complex of storms is moving through the Permian Basin and
  Western Low Rolling Plains this morning. Some of the storms are
  severe, producing large hail. In addition, locally heavy
  rainfall could result in localized flash flooding.

- Thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday, along with the
  threat of severe activity and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Area radars show a very busy night across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, as a MCS rolls through the area.  Interestingly, wind
reports have been rather sparse since this event began, when LCLs
were quite high.  However, there's been no lack of large hail
reports.  This activity will continue overnight.  WV imagery shows a
trough riding the US/Mexico border, and this feature is forecast to
arrive late this afternoon/evening.  With multiple residual
boundaries from previous convection knocking about, rain chances
will remain high through at least late Wednesday afternoon, when the
trough clears the area.  Unfortunately, deep-layer shear will
persist, as well as steep mid-level lapse rates, so the severe
threat will, as well.  For those who like cooler temperatures, highs
will remain below normal over the lowlands, and not much above
normal elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Thursday, as the upper trough exits the region,
thicknesses/temperatures begin increasing as upper ridging fills in
behind it.  Indeed, this looks like the first bona fide attempt of
the summertime ridge to establish itself and, if we're honest, it's
climatologically overdue.  This means an end to rain chances by the
weekend, and above-normal temperatures everywhere by Sunday
afternoon.  However, the LREF and long-range models suggest at least
one more trough may beat this monstrosity down before it's here to
stay the rest of the summer.  Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Scattered storms are beginning to develop over the northern
Permian Basin and across the southwest mountains as of 18Z. We
expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage and
spread eastward across southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos
region this afternoon. Some storms could become severe with
erratic gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall. There could be brief
reductions in ceilings to MVFR with visibility lower than MVFR
times in stronger storms that develop. We included PROB30 at all
terminals late this afternoon and evening between 21-03Z. Surface
winds will be variable in direction this afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings could develop over the Permian Basin Wednesday
morning, which could impact KMAF, but confidence was low enough to
keep mention out of the TAF there for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  65  82  66 /  50  70  60  20
Carlsbad                 85  65  87  66 /  70  50  20  10
Dryden                   95  67  87  70 /  70  80  50  10
Fort Stockton            90  64  86  67 /  80  70  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  62  83  66 /  70  40  20  10
Hobbs                    81  62  84  63 /  70  60  30  10
Marfa                    87  60  85  61 /  80  50  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     85  65  84  67 /  60  70  60  10
Odessa                   84  65  83  67 /  60  70  50  10
Wink                     88  65  87  67 /  80  60  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
114 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     Hail             2 NE Andrews            32.34N 102.53W
06/10/2025  M1.25 Inch       Andrews            TX   Law Enforcement

            Andrews Police Department measured 1.25 inch
            hail.

&&