Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
346 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 344 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Severe storms expected to develop this afternoon/evening. Large
  hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

- Storm chances continue Wednesday afternoon/evening for the
  Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. A few of these storms may
  also be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds
  again the primary threats.

- Daily shower and storm chances after Wednesday through early next
  week, with highest chances over eastern Permian Basin into
  Terrell County Thursday, Saturday, and next Tuesday. Rainfall
  amounts uncertain and highly dependent on mesoscale influences.

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon in advance of
an upper level trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, a
dryline extends from the western Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos
and Big Bend region, where dewpoints range from the lower 50s to
the lower 60s. CAPE values generally range between 1500-2500 J/KG
along and east of the surface dryline this afternoon, with steep
mid level lapse rates between 8.5-9 C/km. Visible satellite
imagery is starting to show the first signs of convective
initiation in the Davis Mountains and adjacent Stockton
Plateau/Upper Trans Pecos region as of 230 PM CDT. Shortwave
impulses embedded within the W-SW flow aloft will translate over
our forecast area this afternoon and evening and will provide
ascent for continued development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Trans Pecos and into the Permian Basin
through the afternoon/evening. Favorable instability and deep
layer shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary
hazards of concern being large hail (potentially golfball size or
larger) and damaging gusts in excess of 70 mph. A tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out if a storm becomes latched onto a boundary.
The severe weather threat will peak late this afternoon into early
this evening before storms gradually decrease in coverage by late
this evening.

A repeat scenario looks to be on tap for Wednesday, with a
similar pattern (perturbations within W-SW and convergence along
the dryline) contributing to additional scattered convection from
the southwest mountains/Big Bend/Trans Pecos to the Permian Basin.
Storms will have the potential to become severe again with large
hail and damaging winds once again being the primary threats. Lows
tonight mostly range in the 50s and 60s with highs on Wednesday
topping out in the 80s over most areas, except 90s along the Rio
Grande.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has benn issued for the Permian Basin
south to the Stockton Plateau until 11 PM CDT. The main threats
are very large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon in advance of
an upper level trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, a
dryline extends from the western Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos
and Big Bend region, where dewpoints range from the lower 50s to
the lower 60s. CAPE values generally range between 1500-2500 J/KG
along and east of the surface dryline this afternoon, with steep
mid level lapse rates between 8.5-9 C/km. Visible satellite
imagery is starting to show the first signs of convective
initiation in the Davis Mountains and adjacent Stockton
Plateau/Upper Trans Pecos region as of 230 PM CDT. Shortwave
impulses embedded within the W-SW flow aloft will translate over
our forecast area this afternoon and evening and will provide
ascent for continued development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Trans Pecos and into the Permian Basin
through the afternoon/evening. Favorable instability and deep
layer shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary
hazards of concern being large hail (potentially golfball size or
larger) and damaging gusts in excess of 70 mph. A tornado cannot
be entirely ruled out if a storm becomes latched onto a boundary.
The severe weather threat will peak late this afternoon into early
this evening before storms gradually decrease in coverage by late
this evening.

A repeat scenario looks to be on tap for Wednesday, with a
similar pattern (perturbations within W-SW and convergence along
the dryline) contributing to additional scattered convection from
the southwest mountains/Big Bend/Trans Pecos to the Permian Basin.
Storms will have the potential to become severe again with large
hail and damaging winds once again being the primary threats. Lows
tonight mostly range in the 50s and 60s with highs on Wednesday
topping out in the 80s over most areas, except 90s along the Rio
Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A persistent stormy pattern holds into Thursday, at least for the
Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau and Terrell County. Long wave
troughing from the Great Basin into northern Mexico will impart
up to 45 knots of shear, while WPC Surface Analysis shows a
dryline sharpening over Eddy County Plains into Davis Mountains
and Big Bend, providing forcing for ascent each day. Short wave
and vorticity perturbations in the southwest flow aloft coupled
with diurnal heating of elevated terrain, as well as enhancement
in moisture advection and low-level shear from a LLJ again
developing in the evening - will be favorable to initiation of
storms. With CAPE remaining above 1000 J/kg and rising up to 2500
J/kg in forecast soundings, lapse rates of 7-9 C/km, and dew point
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s over Permian Basin into
eastern Stockton Plateau and Terrell County, there will be enough
moisture and instability for strong to severe storms east of the
dryline that are capable of generating large hail and damaging
winds. SPC has most of the area east of the dryline outlooked in a
MRGL risk and this may be upgraded in later outlooks. 40% to 50%
PoPs persist will cover this same risk area, with highs 5 to 10
degrees above average in the upper 80s to lower 90s under sunnier
skies west of the dryline, and highs up to 5 degrees above average
under cloudier skies limiting diurnal heating east of the
dryline. Lows fall into the 60s, 50s western higher terrain into
SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin, as moisture and clouds
limit radiational cooling and keep the diurnal range down to 20
degrees. Subsidence in the wake of the perturbations decreases
PoPs Friday, but PoPs again expand westward as more perturbations
ripple through the flow, with highest PoPs 40% to 50% over
northern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains on Saturday,
before decreasing back down to the 20% to 30% range over eastern
parts of the area by Sunday. Geopotential heights less than 582
decameters northwest of Davis Mountains and between 582 and 588
decameters elsewhere along with 1000-500 mb thicknesses between
570 and 576 decameters from late week through this weekend keep
temperatures relatively consistent each day, 80s to 90s with
coolest temperatures over the northeast Permian Basin in the lower
80s, higher elevations west of the dryline in the lower to mid
80s, and warmest temperatures in the 90s over the Upper Trans
Pecos and Rio Grande basins. An exception will be the northeast
Permian Basin where highs may not reach the 80s under cloudier
skies and another relative maximum in PoPs Saturday. As on Friday,
warmer temperatures with subsidence in the wake of the
disturbances aloft are again forecast Sunday, with highs ranging
from the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows ranging from the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Sunday might end up being the warmest day in the long
term as a result of gusty downsloping winds developing during the
day. However, as troughing deepens over the Great Basin and
decreases heights and thicknesses by early next week, a cooling
trend and increase in rain chances is expected.

NBM rain totals show only a few tenths of an inch accumulation
from late this week into early next week over the northeast and
southeast Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau and Terrell
County. Given tendency of NBM to overperform for rain totals a
few days in advance of a rain event, there remains uncertainty
about how much rain will fall. The more rain that falls over the
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, the cooler we can
expect temperatures in those regions to be during the day and
therefore the lower the diurnal range. Less rain than currently
indicated may keep temperatures even over cloudier eastern parts
of the area at the higher end during the day, while increasing the
diurnal range. There are no indications of a significant wind
shift in forecast grids through the extended, with southwesterly
winds west of the dryline and southerly/southeasterly winds east
of the dryline. Therefore, position and strength of the dryline,
storm interactions/mergers, extent and location of prior wetting
rains, amount of differential heating of elevated terrain and
clearer sky versus cloudier regions, as well as timing, strength,
and location of disturbances aloft look to be the main factors
impacting temperature and precipitation for the foreseeable
future. NBM grids are also indicating the dryline developing
farther east early next week, so highest rain chances may end up
east of the area compared to so far this week if this pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early
afternoon, w/bases ranging from ~ 4.5 kft AGL east of the dryline
to 12 kft AGL KCNM. Convection will be possible during the
afternoon and evening, mainly eastern terminals, but chances are
too low/uncertain for a mention this issuance. MVFR cigs look
likely for a few hours KMAF/KHOB near the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  81  62  82 /  40  20  30  40
Carlsbad                 57  89  56  89 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   64  82  64  86 /  20  20  30  40
Fort Stockton            62  85  64  88 /  20  20  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           55  81  57  80 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    56  83  59  85 /  20  10  20  20
Marfa                    53  83  53  85 /   0  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     61  83  63  84 /  30  10  30  30
Odessa                   61  82  64  84 /  30  10  30  30
Wink                     61  87  63  89 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso TX
333 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

TXZ067-068-075-222115-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Ward TX-
333 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND WEST CENTRAL CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 333 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Grandfalls, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial Reservoir, Grandfalls, and Imperial.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10292 3120 10303 3144 10277 3123 10259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 219DEG 7KT 3120 10291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TSB