Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
730 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 728 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through at least Sunday, if
  not beyond, mainly in the afternoon and evening over the Western
  Low Rolling Plains. Any severe storms that do develop will be
  accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds and/or a tornado
  or two.

- The heat is on this weekend, with many locations reaching the
  triple digits each day. A Heat Advisory is in effect Saturday
  for the Chisos Basin, Central and Lower Brewster County, and
  Terrell County. Additional Heat Advisories will be likely
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Similar to yesterday, this afternoon and evening will feature two
areas of interest for shower and storm development, though coverage
should be lower overall. First, across the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico where stalled boundaries may act to help
develop isolated storms that will gradually move to the east and
northeast into tonight. The second area will be over the Davis
Mountains and across the Stockton Plateau where terrain and the
nearby dryline likely get storms started not long after this
discussion is published. In both cases, some storms will become
severe and be capable of producing damaging winds and large to very
large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out for the SE NM and northern
Permian Basin area, but conditions are less favorable than they were
for yesterday.

Flooding will be a concern this evening across Pecos and Terrell
counties as storm motions slow down as they decay after sunset.
Amounts of 1-2" may be possible in isolated areas that could lead to
additional flooding of low water crossings. Temperatures settle into
the 60s to low 70s for most by Saturday morning. Saturday sees an
upper level ridge to the south move northward slightly. Highs end up
about 5-7 degrees warmer compared to today. With this in mind, a
Heat Advisory will be in for the afternoon across Big Bend and
Terrell County where the hottest temperatures in the area will be
focused. With the ridge moving into the area, rain chances trend
much lower for most locations with the Davis Mountains seeing low(10-
20%) chance for showers.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Sunday, the LREF and long range models center the upper ridge over
southern Chihuahua/northern Durango, with effects felt northward
into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Whereas 24 hours ago
these models were suggesting Saturday would be the warmest day this
forecast, the apogee in temperatures now appears to be Sunday
afternoon, when thicknesses will be maximized under the ridge.
Triple-digit highs will be present most everywhere but the higher
terrain...around 10 F above climatology.  Heat advisories will
likely be needed for the mountains and Rio Grande Valley if these
respectable temperatures pan out.  During the afternoon, there will
be a chance of convection in the Davis Mountains.  Instability, deep-
layer bulk shear, and mid-level lapse rates will continue posing a
severe threat with these storms.  To the northeast, models develop a
MCS along an approaching cold front, and convection may develop into
the northeastern zones overnight as the front pushes in.  This too
looks severe.

Monday, the front continues its assault on the area, w/models taking
it to near the Presidio Valley by 00Z Tuesday.  This will shave 8-9
F off Sunday's highs, especially northeast.  Convective chances will
spread west and south w/the front, with a continued likelihood of
severe activity.

Tuesday and Wednesday, CAA continues as surface winds slowly veer to
the east under an incoming upper trough.  This will promote upslope
flow for a medium-but-widespread chance of convection each day.
Severe parameters persist into Tuesday, but deep-layer shear finally
wanes on Wednesday, as do mid-lvl lapse rates and instability w/the
arrival of cooler temperatures.  For those who like cooler weather,
Wednesday's highs should struggle to around 5-6 F below normal.

Thursday/Friday, temperatures rebound in the wake of the trough,
w/dwindling chances of rain outside of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours except in or near
convection, which should diminish over the next couple of hours.
Models try to bring a frontal boundary in from the northeast
Saturday afternoon, but diurnal heating should slow/stall this
feature until after sundown Saturday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71 101  72 103 /  20   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 66 100  69 103 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   74 105  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71 103  74 103 /  20  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           68  95  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    64  98  67 101 /  30   0   0  10
Marfa                    64  95  67  96 /  30  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     73 101  74 104 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                   72 102  73 102 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                     70 102  72 105 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Central
     Brewster-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

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