Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through at least Sunday, if
  not beyond, mainly in the afternoon and evening over the Western
  Low Rolling Plains. Any severe storms that do develop will be
  accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds and/or a tornado
  or two.

- The heat is on this weekend, with many locations reaching the
  triple digits each day. A Heat Advisory is in effect Saturday
  for the Chisos Basin, Central and Lower Brewster County, and
  Terrell County. Additional Heat Advisories will be likely
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Similar to yesterday, this afternoon and evening will feature two
areas of interest for shower and storm development, though coverage
should be lower overall. First, across the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico where stalled boundaries may act to help
develop isolated storms that will gradually move to the east and
northeast into tonight. The second area will be over the Davis
Mountains and across the Stockton Plateau where terrain and the
nearby dryline likely get storms started not long after this
discussion is published. In both cases, some storms will become
severe and be capable of producing damaging winds and large to very
large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out for the SE NM and northern
Permian Basin area, but conditions are less favorable than they were
for yesterday.

Flooding will be a concern this evening across Pecos and Terrell
counties as storm motions slow down as they decay after sunset.
Amounts of 1-2" may be possible in isolated areas that could lead to
additional flooding of low water crossings. Temperatures settle into
the 60s to low 70s for most by Saturday morning. Saturday sees an
upper level ridge to the south move northward slightly. Highs end up
about 5-7 degrees warmer compared to today. With this in mind, a
Heat Advisory will be in for the afternoon across Big Bend and
Terrell County where the hottest temperatures in the area will be
focused. With the ridge moving into the area, rain chances trend
much lower for most locations with the Davis Mountains seeing low(10-
20%) chance for showers.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Sunday, the LREF and long range models center the upper ridge over
southern Chihuahua/northern Durango, with effects felt northward
into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Whereas 24 hours ago
these models were suggesting Saturday would be the warmest day this
forecast, the apogee in temperatures now appears to be Sunday
afternoon, when thicknesses will be maximized under the ridge.
Triple-digit highs will be present most everywhere but the higher
terrain...around 10 F above climatology.  Heat advisories will
likely be needed for the mountains and Rio Grande Valley if these
respectable temperatures pan out.  During the afternoon, there will
be a chance of convection in the Davis Mountains.  Instability, deep-
layer bulk shear, and mid-level lapse rates will continue posing a
severe threat with these storms.  To the northeast, models develop a
MCS along an approaching cold front, and convection may develop into
the northeastern zones overnight as the front pushes in.  This too
looks severe.

Monday, the front continues its assault on the area, w/models taking
it to near the Presidio Valley by 00Z Tuesday.  This will shave 8-9
F off Sunday's highs, especially northeast.  Convective chances will
spread west and south w/the front, with a continued likelihood of
severe activity.

Tuesday and Wednesday, CAA continues as surface winds slowly veer to
the east under an incoming upper trough.  This will promote upslope
flow for a medium-but-widespread chance of convection each day.
Severe parameters persist into Tuesday, but deep-layer shear finally
wanes on Wednesday, as do mid-lvl lapse rates and instability w/the
arrival of cooler temperatures.  For those who like cooler weather,
Wednesday's highs should struggle to around 5-6 F below normal.

Thursday/Friday, temperatures rebound in the wake of the trough,
w/dwindling chances of rain outside of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR continues through much of the TAF period at all terminals.
Iso T develop near CNM/PEQ and areas south between 20z-22z and
move to the east and east-northeast through the afternoon and
evening. TEMPOs in place for all terminals except MAF where
confidence is low that the terminal will be impacted. Expect
variable and gusty winds in or near any convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 101  72 102 /  10  20   0  10
Carlsbad                 68 103  69 102 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   75 104  76 104 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72 104  73 103 /  30  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           70  96  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    65  99  67 100 /  20   0   0  10
Marfa                    65  97  66  96 /  30  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     73 102  73 103 /  10  20   0  10
Odessa                   73 102  74 101 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                     71 103  72 104 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Central
     Brewster-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...93