Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

- Widespread severe weather including large hail, damaging winds,
  and tornadoes expected this afternoon through the overnight
  hours across southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and Permian
  Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

The upper-level trough, visible on water vapor satellite imagery,
continues to make its way through Arizona towards New Mexico this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a dryline is sharpening up over the western
portions of the area. This dryline will continue to migrate into
western/central portions of the Permian Basin later this afternoon
and extend down towards the Big Bend. Lift associated with the
approaching trough, along with continued difluence aloft and
convergence along the dryline, will encourage the development of a
few isolated supercells this afternoon. These storms would attempt
to become severe given MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear of 50-60 kts (up to 70 kts locally). All modes of severe
weather would be possible, though very large hail and damaging winds
would be the primary concern. Tonight (roughly around midnight), a
second round of storms is expected to fire up in southeast New
Mexico and far west Texas off the retreating dryline as a 40-50 kt
low-level jet develops. These storms will quickly coalesce into a
line, and would continue to pose a threat of all modes of severe
weather (especially given the increasing low-level shear associated
with the low-level jet - this would help increase the tornado threat
somewhat). At this time, the highest storm chances look to be for
the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos regions (60-90% chance). Ample
moisture and the potential for heavy downpours suggests some
flooding may be another concern. As a result, a Flood Watch is in
effect for far northern portions of the Permian Basin (though
localized flooding can be expected for other locations as well).

The line clears the area before Tuesday morning, and behind it will
come more pleasant conditions (besides some leftover breezy winds
into the afternoon tomorrow). These more pleasant conditions will
continue into the Long Term Period!

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

The slow progression of the upper storm system over the Arklatex
will keep our region in generally northerly flow aloft through the
rest of this week. This means near to below normal temperatures will
continue with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the 50s. A
disturbance or two could rotate around the backside of the upper
trough and bring some isolated showers through Friday, but the
majority of the area will remain dry. Mid level ridging builds in
this weekend helping temperatures return to normal. Hotter
conditions could return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

Southerly/southeasterly winds at terminals shift to northwesterly
by 04Z-09Z Tuesday, then shift to southwesterly and become gusty
14Z-17Z into end of TAF period. VFR CIGs except for MVFR or lower
in showers/storms over SE NM plains into Permian Basin from
beginning of TAF period into 15Z, then VFR forecast at all
terminals. MVFR or lower VIS in regions of haze, blowing dust,
and/or showers/storms, but due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage, left out mention in TAFs. Highest chance of
showers/storms across northern SE NM plains into Permian Basin
from beginning of TAF period into 08Z, then decreasing into 15Z,
with rain chances remaining near zero into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  77  51  81 /  90  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 51  74  51  76 /  70  10   0  10
Dryden                   60  85  59  87 /  70   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            57  80  55  82 /  70   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           48  66  49  70 /  40   0   0  10
Hobbs                    50  72  47  74 /  90   0   0   0
Marfa                    47  71  46  77 /  20   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     57  77  53  80 /  90   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  76  53  79 /  90   0   0   0
Wink                     55  79  53  83 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Borden-Dawson-Gaines-
     Scurry.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Northern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...94

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Hail             Stanton                 32.13N 101.79W
05/05/2025  M1.75 Inch       Martin             TX   Public

            Golf ball size hail reported in Stanton by
            the public. Time was estimated by report and
            radar.

&&

KML

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
708 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Hail             7 N Florey              32.55N 102.62W
05/05/2025  M1.00 Inch       Gaines             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

KML

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
739 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Landspout        1 N Otis                32.37N 104.17W
05/05/2025                   Eddy               NM   Public

            Short-lived (less than 2 minutes) landspout
            observed by the public 5 miles SE of
            Carlsbad moving north-northeastward around
            6:18 PM MDT/7:18 PM CDT. Landspout width was
            approximately 25 yards.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
830 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Hail             2 E Carlsbad            32.40N 104.20W
05/05/2025  M1.00 Inch       Eddy               NM   Public

            Public reports of quarter size hail. Time
            was estimated by radar.

&&

KML

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
850 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Hail             Carlsbad North          32.44N 104.22W
05/05/2025  M2.50 Inch       Eddy               NM   Public

            Multiple reports of Golf to Tennis ball size
            hail. Time was estimated by radar.

&&

KML