Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Rain chances increase tonight and into the weekend. The best
  chances of measurable rainfall are over southeast New Mexico/the
  Permian Basin during the Friday night through Saturday
  afternoon timeframe.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of strong to severe
  thunderstorms tonight into early Friday morning. The main
  threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

- Freezing temperatures are possible across much of the area
  Sunday morning, with the chance of a rain/snow mix in the
  Guadalupes and central/northern Lea County New Mexico. Impacts
  to travel are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A rinse and repeat weather pattern heading into tonight. Surface
low pressure is expected to develop once again across southern
Texas, supplying more moisture return across the eastern half of
the forecast area. A shortwave trough also moves over the region
providing lift. Both of these ingredients will allow the potential
for measurable rainfall across southeastern New Mexico
(0.05-0.40") and a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the
central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin. High resolution
guidance depicts storms developing over these areas around
midnight tonight lasting through the early morning hours. Forecast
soundings and hodographs support an elevated multicellular to
discrete convective mode given straight wind profiles and high
shear coinciding with modest elevated MU CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg).
HREF and other deterministic guidance have PWATs at least 0.3
inches higher than normal for this time of year per SPC sounding
climatology. The higher than normal PWATs indicate heavy rainfall,
especially with the more stronger storms. These storms are
anticipated to move off to the northeast very quickly which will
mitigate a flash flood threat. If training of thunderstorms does
occur over the same areas, this may result in some areas to flood.
The main threats for the strongest storms will be large hail and
damaging winds with these storms being confined over the eastern
Permian Basin.

The mid-level longwave trough progresses more eastward going into
Friday. Scattered rain showers and storms continue during the
afternoon over some portions of the region. These storms are
anticipated to be general to at most sub-severe (over eastern
Permian Basin). Since rain showers will be convective and
scattered in nature, rainfall accumulation will be hard to
pinpoint across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Therefore,
not all areas will see precipitation. High temperatures are
forecasted to be around 10 degrees cooler than normal, thanks to
the morning rain and cloud coverage throughout the day.

The greatest chances of rain arrives Friday night into early
Saturday morning. A cold front is forecasted to be approaching
from the north, while a stationary front setup across far southern
Texas. Light rain showers are anticipated during this timeframe,
resulting in lighter accumulations. Low temperatures are
forecasted to vary throughout the region with lower to mid 30s
over the southeastern New Mexico Plains and the higher terrain,
while 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. The cooling trend continues
heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Very good rain chances continue into Saturday, but there is some
concern for those wanting rain. The heaviest precipitation will
occur ahead of the upper level low moving across the U.S./Mexico
border (where moisture and lift is greatest) which happens through
Friday night. By Saturday, the upper low arrives in West Texas
and we get into the deformation zone of the upper low, finally
transitioning to wrap around precip on the back side of the
departing low. Precipitable water values (PWATs) steadily decrease
from a high of near 1" Friday night to only 1/4" by Saturday
night as the deeper Gulf rich air pushes east and we get drier air
advecting in from west of the low. Therefore despite high
rainfall chances, rainfall amounts will decrease as the day goes
on and heavier showers and storms will transition to light rain.
Rain chances end pretty quickly Saturday night as the upper low
exits to the east. There is a chance for a rain and snow mix in
southeastern New Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis mountains
though little if any accumulations are expected. Warm ground
temperatures should prevent ice forming on roads despite expected
lows Sunday morning near freezing.

Temperatures cool down Saturday due to a strong, late season cold
front as well as abundant clouds and rain. Highs will mainly be
in the 40s and 50s with only some 60s and 70s along the Rio
Grande. Skies clear Sunday and continued northerly winds keep cool
air advecting in for another day keeping temps in the 50s and
60s. Broad upper level ridging develops next week creating a
warming trend that sends temps back above normal with highs
getting back to the 80s.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR CIGs lower to MVFR CIGs at TAF sites by 09Z-13Z. VFR VIS
throughout period, except for MVFR or lower in showers/storms, as
well as any regions of mist or fog. Uncertain with coverage of
showers/storms except SE NM plains and central Permian Basin,
where showers/storms expected within the first few hours of the
TAF period. Rain chances stick around this round of
showers/storms, as do broken to overcast cloud cover with MVFR or
lower CIGs for terminals, but due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage, left out mention of any precipitation in TAFs after 09Z.
Winds mainly northerly/northeasterly, gusty and variable where
showers/storms occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  48  60  43 /   0  70  50  80
Carlsbad                 67  46  55  38 /   0  60  70  60
Dryden                   87  56  76  51 /   0  50  10  70
Fort Stockton            75  51  67  45 /   0  50  20  70
Guadalupe Pass           58  43  50  35 /   0  50  70  40
Hobbs                    63  44  56  35 /   0  70  60  70
Marfa                    75  45  66  38 /   0  20  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     68  49  61  43 /   0  60  30  80
Odessa                   68  49  61  44 /   0  60  30  80
Wink                     70  49  63  42 /   0  50  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TXZ075-082-040600-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PECOS AND
NORTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Terrell County Gas Plant, or 22 miles north of Dryden,
moving north at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sheffield, Iraan Municipal Airport, Terrell County Gas Plant, and
Iraan.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 305 and 327.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 10169 3046 10171 3047 10173 3044 10172
      3042 10174 3017 10194 3026 10224 3100 10214
      3099 10199 3092 10188 3089 10189 3086 10185
      3080 10183 3076 10184 3074 10181 3070 10181
      3065 10177 3064 10167 3062 10165 3056 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 201DEG 61KT 3037 10201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TXZ063-070-040615-
Reagan TX-Glasscock TX-
1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK...REAGAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN UPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1222 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Reagan County Airport, or 14 miles northwest of
Big Lake, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Lawrence, Best, Garden City, and Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 10166 3121 10178 3141 10178 3197 10149
      3182 10126 3143 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 214DEG 42KT 3128 10168

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TXZ070-040715-
Reagan TX-
141 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 AM CDT...

At 141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Reagan County Airport, or near Big Lake, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Lake and Reagan County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10141 3108 10164 3110 10168 3161 10127
      3122 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 217DEG 49KT 3112 10153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

91

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