Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

499 
WWUS84 KMAF 120754
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
130100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.250312T1500Z-250313T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 /154 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...5 or critical.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...3 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...8 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

613 
WWUS84 KMAF 121941
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST 
TEXAS...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR 20-FT WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR 20-FT WINDS 
OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO 
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-050-059-060-067-270>274-276>278-131000-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0007.250313T1600Z-250314T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0008.250314T1700Z-250315T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250313T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Marfa Plateau-
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 /141 PM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, 
VAN HORN CORRIDOR, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, DAVIS 
MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, DAVIS 
MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU...

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent.

* RFTI...5 or critical.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Elevated...1 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...6 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ046>048-051>053-061>063-068>070-075-082-275-279>282-131000-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0008.250314T1700Z-250315T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250313T0100Z/
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-Midland-
Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Chinati Mountains-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...7 or extreme.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Elevated...1 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...6 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect today due to
  elevated fire weather conditions over southeastern New Mexico,
  much of the Permian Basin, and the West Texas mountains.

- A storm system arriving tomorrow spells increasing fire weather
  concerns and breezy to strong winds.

- A more potent storm system arrives Friday. Strong to very strong
  winds and critical to extreme fire weather conditions will be
  the main impacts. Temperatures drop slightly behind the cold
  front before a warming trend ensues once the system departs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the southern CONUS between two
systems.  To the west, an upper trough is approaching SoCal/Baja del
Norte. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are under zonal flow
aloft, but this will transition to southwest later today as the
trough pushes east.

Leeside surface troughing on the Front Range ahead of the storm
system will veer and increase winds to the southwest today.
Downslope warming under sunny skies will increase thicknesses to
yield afternoon highs averaging a pleasant ~ 10 F above normal.

Tonight, westerlies will decouple somewhat, but remain elevated
enough to keep mixing in play, adding 3-4 F to tonight's minimums,
keeping lows 6-8 F above climatology.

The west coast trough is forecast to open and make landfall this
evening, advancing to the Four Corners region by 12Z Wednesday.
Isolated rain and snow showers will be possible in the Guadalupes
Wednesday morning, but QPF looks negligible.  The NAM develops a
mountain wave signature, and 700mb height gradients tighten up to
60m/200nm, signaling a high wind event.  This will likely develop
down into the Davis Mountains by late morning.  As such, we'll
expand the watch to include this, and some adjacent plains.
Advisories will be needed later for most areas to the east Wednesday
afternoon. Given perpetually dry soils, BLDU is a given. Also, it
almost goes w/out saying that, given the constant dry, westerly flow
throughout the short term, critical fire weather conditions are
expected. See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The upper-level system responsible for the blustery conditions
earlier Wednesday begins to track east of our area throughout the
night. Lows Wednesday night sink into the 40s. Winds taper down and
upper ridging briefly takes back the wheel ahead of another, more
potent storm system set to arrive late Thursday night and into
Friday. Thursday brings comparably nicer weather, with calmer winds
and highs in the 70s and 80s, even a few 90s near the Rio Grande.

Over the course of the night Thursday, an upper-level trough becomes
negatively tilted and a surface low quickly intensifies near the lee
of the Rockies. This will release another windbag over our area,
with stronger winds compared to Wednesday's system indicated by a
tighter pressure gradient shown in ensemble and deterministic
guidance. The surface front still looks to arrive sometime Friday
morning, shifting winds out of the west and northwest. Much of the
area could experience sustained winds over 30kts, with gusts over
40kts Friday afternoon. This system is not expected to bring any
precipitation. Aside from wind products, dry conditions and strong
winds will result in critical to extreme RFTIs; therefore, fire
weather products are likely.

Highs Friday range from the 50s in parts of southeast New Mexico and
the mountains, 60s for most everyone else, and 70s to 80s in the
Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Lows drop into the 30s and 40s.
Winds Friday night and Saturday remain on the breezy side while the
trough gradually departs to our northeast. Highs in the 50s and 60s
stick around Saturday, then the 60s and 70s become more prominent
Sunday as winds decrease and we begin a warming trend under an upper-
level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Brief gusts are possible
today and winds remain out of the west. High gusty winds are
expected to pick up in strength by the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               45  76  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 46  71  44  76 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   51  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            51  74  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           43  60  44  68 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    44  71  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    43  66  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     46  73  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   47  73  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     43  74  42  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55