Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Critical fire weather and gusty southwest winds continue through
  this afternoon for most of the area. There is a low (10-30%)
  chance of thunderstorms for far eastern portions of the area
  later this evening into early tonight.

- A dryline is expected across eastern portions of the region
  Saturday afternoon and evening. A medium to high (60-90%) chance
  of thunderstorms is expected. A medium chance (30-50%) of
  additional thunderstorms across the central Permian Basin to
  Stockton Plateau exists into late Friday night. Strong to severe
  thunderstorms may develop with a main threat of large hail and
  damaging winds.

- Breezy west winds continue during Saturday afternoon. Critical
  fire weather is likely for locations along and west of the Pecos
  River.

- High pressure results in slightly cooler temperatures and quiet
  weather conditions on Sunday and Monday. A series of weak
  weather systems and the return of the dryline to the region may
  result in daily thunderstorms for portions of the area by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

This weekend is still on track to be quite active courtesy of an
upper-level storm system. Breezy to windy conditions, near-critical
to critical fire weather, and the potential for strong to severe
storms are all in the mix. This evening, the upper trough crawls
closer yet, while the dryline sharpens up near our eastern counties.
Lift provided by the trough and a surface low to our northeast will
help kick off shower/storm activity. However, most of the action
will develop near the dryline, in the eastern Permian Basin and the
Lower Trans Pecos. Based on the HREF, the storm environment over
these areas this evening will consist of CAPE values ranging from
500-1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear over 40 kts, and mid-level lapse rates
greater than 7 C/km. Given these parameters, a few storms that
develop may become strong to severe, with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds, before exiting our region and heading
east and northeast. Overall, PoPs tonight range from 10%-40% over
the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Otherwise, lows
dip into the 50s and 60s.

Saturday, the strongest winds within the trough's 500 mb jet max
shift northeast. As a result, surface winds remain breezy to strong
during the afternoon over the higher terrain and adjacent plains,
but not as strong as Friday's winds. Highs are forecast to range
within the 70s and 80s for most, with 90s near the Rio Grande. Rain
chances will pick up once again during the afternoon, as daytime
heating triggers convection in the vicinity of the dryline. CAMs
show storm activity ramping up heading into the evening hours, when
a cold front dropping down from the north looks to collide with the
dryline. This time, rain chances spread westward to include nearly
everyone, except for much of the mountains. This is due to the
dryline almost splitting our region in half, resulting in 20%-90%
PoPs, best chances exist the further east you go. A few storms
will again have the potential to become strong to severe over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. HREF shows storm
parameters of mid-level lapse rates between 7-9 C/km, 0-6 km
shear over 50 kts, and surface CAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg.
The main threats will once again be large hail and damaging winds.
Keep an eye out for any weather alerts over the next couple of
nights should anything become severe!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

After an eventful Friday and Saturday, much quieter weather is
expected to take its place. Surface high pressure begins to settle
into the southern Great Plains as our latest weather system departs
to the east. Lighter winds, clear skies, and below-normal
temperatures take its place. Most locations can expect to reach the
70s during the afternoon with 80s along the Rio Grande. Light winds
and clear skies result in a cool morning on Monday with upper 40s
and low 50s necessitating a jacket on your way out the door. Weak
mid-level riding and southerly winds take shape as the surface high
pressure moves off to our east by the afternoon. Temperatures
respond accordingly by climbing to slightly-above normal. Widespread
afternoon temperatures in the 80s with 90s along the Rio Grande can
be anticipated.

The remainder of the week and forecast remains relatively stagnant,
though not necessarily quiet. A broad long-wave trough is expected
to develop over the western United States with a large, blocking
ridge over the eastern Unites states. Modest lee troughing will
maintain southerly winds across the region allowing gulf moisture to
filter into the area. A dryline is poised to set up across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico each afternoon. Weak disturbance
wrapping around the broad trough may initiate afternoon
thunderstorms along the aforementioned dryline each day. At present,
there is a low to medium (20-50%) chance of thunderstorms for all
but far western portions of the area each afternoon. While it is too
far out to dive into details, only modest wind shear is expected
with this pattern as the stronger mid-level winds remain north of
the region. That said, if sufficient moisture and instability are
present, strong to severe thunderstorms may inevitably be a concern.
Stay tuned for details on this as we get closer to the middle of
next week. Outside of the thunderstorm chances, Temperatures remain
a touch above normal each afternoon into the middle 80s and low 90s
for the majority. Night time temperatures do not cool substantially
with continual moisture return and each morning only cools into the
upper 50s and low 60s.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

BLDU gradually clears at all sites though the rest of the night, so
widespread VFR conditions will prevail after 08Z. Gusty
southwesterly winds also continue to diminish at all sites. However
by this afternoon gusty southwesterly winds will redevelop ahead of
an incoming cold front, which will shift winds more northwesterly by
the end of the period. BLDU may once again develop at CNM, and a few
thunderstorms may be in the vicinity of MAF and FST (in particular)
this evening. However, confidence is too low at this time to include
mentioning either BLDU or thunderstorms in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Widespread near-critical to critical fire weather conditions have
developed this afternoon, especially with western extent. These
conditions are the result of low teens and high single digits
relative humidities accompanied by strong southwesterly winds. Fuels
remain critically dry with little green-up as ERCs hover in the 70th-
89th percentile range. One limiting factor for the fire weather this
afternoon has been a persistent thick, cirrus deck over almost the
entire region. Despite this, a Red Flag Warning continues for all
but far eastern portions of the area through this evening. Limited
overnight recovery is expected tonight as the dryline remains nearly
stationary across the eastern portions of our region.

Another day of critical to extreme fire weather is expected on
Saturday for most locations along and west of the Pecos River.
Gusty westerly winds and low teens and single digit relative
humidities continue west of the dryline through the afternoon and
evening. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect and this will
likely be upgraded in the next forecast.

For Sunday and beyond, improvements to fire weather conditions is
anticipated. Surface high pressure and light winds limit any fire
weather on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, consistent
moist, southerly flow brings moisture westward across the region.
This is expected to largely limit fire weather other than
westernmost portions of the region. One concern may be lightning
starts with thunderstorm chances each afternoon in the forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  49  75  48 /  40  80  10   0
Carlsbad                 77  44  76  46 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                   88  55  85  54 /  30  60   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  52  79  52 /  20  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  43  69  51 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                    77  41  73  44 /  10  30   0   0
Marfa                    81  43  73  44 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     83  49  76  50 /  20  70   0   0
Odessa                   83  50  76  50 /  20  60   0   0
Wink                     84  48  79  49 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ early this
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13