Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

959 
WWUS84 KMAF 180833
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST
TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ059-060-067-068-075-270>282-200300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0019.250418T1400Z-250419T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0016.250419T1700Z-250420T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Pecos-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
333 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 /233 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks.  Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.  Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged.  Observe local burn bans.  

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Elevated...1 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...5 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase 
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.   Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-061-190300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0019.250418T1400Z-250419T0300Z/
Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-
333 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE 
DANGER...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks.  Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.  Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged.  Observe local burn bans.  

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Near Critical...2 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...6 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase 
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ069-082-200300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0016.250419T1700Z-250420T0300Z/
Upton-Terrell-
333 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* WINDS...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* RFTI...1 or elevated.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks.  Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires.  Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged.  Observe local burn bans.  

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Elevated...1 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...5 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.   Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

44

230 
WWUS84 KMAF 181914
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM 
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ059-060-067-068-075-270>282-191200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-250419T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0016.250419T1700Z-250420T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Pecos-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 /114 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025/

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM 
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged. Observe local burn bans. 

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...3 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...6 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.   Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ045>048-050>053-061-190300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-250419T0300Z/
Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM 
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged. Observe local burn bans. 

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Near-Critical...2 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...6 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ069-082-191200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0016.250419T1700Z-250420T0300Z/
Upton-Terrell-
214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS...

* WINDS...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* RFTI...3 or near-critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions will have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Fires 
  can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are highly 
  discouraged. Observe local burn bans. 

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...70th-89th percentile...4 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Near-Critical...2 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...5 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.   Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- Critical fire weather is expected to continue Friday over the
  western portions of our region due to warm temperatures, strong
  winds, and dry conditions.

- Rain chances increase Friday night through Saturday night,
  primarily over the eastern portions of our area, with the
  arrival of an upper-level storm system. A few storms may be
  strong to severe in our easternmost counties.

- Rain chances return by the middle of next week as a series of
  disturbances roll through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Our next weather maker continues to take shape this afternoon. A
weaker shortwave trough moving across Southern California is
beginning to phase with an even stronger shortwave trough diving
south over the Great Basin. These two features become one as the new
combined trough goes from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt while it
moves into the Four Corners region Friday afternoon into Saturday
night. With only modest lee troughing at present, the dryline
remains just to the east of our area. Downsloping southwesterly
winds are contributing to temperatures into the 90s for the majority
of locations. The strongest of these winds are beginning to be felt
across northwesternmost portions of the area as a mid-level speed
max begins to impinge on the area. A High Wind Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains with Wind Advisories across the adjacent
plains as a result. These increased southwesterly winds and dry
conditions are resulting in fire weather concerns also. See the Fire
Weather Discussion below for further details. While a weak leading
disturbance is expected to move over the region this evening, very
dry low-level conditions means that no precipitation will actually
reach the ground, even if a shower does develop as some high-res
models indicate. Have opted to remove any mention of rain because of
this reason. Lee troughing begins to strengthen tonight allowing
better moisture to begin filtering westward into the region. This
will keep overnight low temperatures on the warm side with 60s for
almost everyone by sunrise. Further to the west, strong winds
continue through the overnight hours, so the wind products continue
though winds may briefly weaken during the morning hours.

Heading into Friday, a similar afternoon setup is expected. With the
approaching trough the dryline will be a touch further west and into
eastern portions of our area. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions
continue behind the dryline along with the gusty southwest winds,
especially for the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains.
Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than Thursday during
Friday afternoon as heights begin to fall in association with the
approaching trough. Once again, fire weather will be a concern for
areas behind the dryline. A few mid-level showers may develop during
the afternoon near the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, but little
if any of this rain will reach the ground. By Friday night, the
dryline begins to sharpen and slide westward into the central and
eastern Permian Basin. With ascent becoming maximized ahead of the
trough and an approaching cold front impinging on the dryline,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. That said, most
of this activity will be focused across far eastern portions of the
area where moisture and instability is maximized. A low chance (10-
30%) of rain is expected for the Central Permian Basin with a
medium (40-60%) chance of rain for the Eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. A few of these thunderstorms that develop may be
strong to severe, though this is expected to remain mainly east of
our area. Everything begins to clear out by sunrise as the cold
front continues its trek through the Southern Great Plains.
Northwestern areas see a cooler morning in the upper 40s and 50s as
60s hold on further to the southeast.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Saturday, an upper-level trough continues to creep closer to our
area. The trough's jet streak will hover overhead much of the day
Saturday, with the strongest winds over southeastern New Mexico.
Before gradually departing during the evening hours, this feature
will translate to strong winds in the mountains, while most
everywhere else looks to be breezy. With highs topping out in the
70s and 80s, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may
still be of concern for several locations within our region.

In the eastern half of our area, rain chances see an uptick Saturday
afternoon, and especially Saturday evening. Similar to Friday
evening, the dryline looks to sharpen near our eastern fringes, then
retreat westward and split our CWA in half before a cold front drops
down from the north. Lift associated with the trough may help
trigger shower/storm activity during the afternoon, resulting in
PoPs ranging from 20%-50%, best chances remaining in our easternmost
counties. However, the additional lift provided by the cold front
Saturday evening increase PoPs to 20%-70%. Although the best chances
still lie in our eastern counties, PoPs spread west to include
almost everyone except for the mountains. Something to note is the
potential for a few storms to become strong to severe over the
extreme eastern Permian Basin Saturday evening. At present, ensemble
data show MUCAPE values to range from 500 J/kg in the far eastern
Permian Basin. Deep layer sheer looks to be greater than 40 kts
along with mid-level lapse rates more than 7 C/km. CIN greater than
100 J/kg across a majority of this same area may limit storm
development. In the case severe storms take shape, the main threats
would be large hail and damaging winds.

Easter morning starts off chilly within the post-frontal airmass as
the upper trough departs. Morning lows will be mainly in the low 40s
to mid 50s. Highs are forecast to reach the 70s to low 80s. Weak
ridging creates a brief lull in our weather Monday and temperatures
warm back into the 80s. By the middle of the week, a broad trough
accompanied by a series of shortwave disturbances looks to move in,
bringing the return of rain chances. We'll see how this evolves as
time goes on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions generally prevail tonight, with some
occasional/temporary MVFR conditions at CNM as gusty winds
continue to kick up leftover dust from yesterday.
Southerly/southwesterly winds remain fairly breezy at all sites
tonight, though gusts will continue to diminish. However, gusty
southwesterly winds will return between 14-17Z this morning. The
strongest gusts are expected at westernmost terminals, especially
CNM (where BLDU may once again develop and reduce VIS to MVFR
conditions, though low confidence precludes including such a
category change in the TAF).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue Friday across most of our area as an upper-level storm
system creeps nearer. The 500mb jet max will be placed over and near
southeastern New Mexico extending to far west Texas, causing strong
20ft winds. Along with strong winds, minRH values will be very low.
ERCs are going to be in the 75-89th percentile both Friday and
Saturday across portions of the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. Fuels
have also had a chance to dry out since the last wetting rain.
Provided these parameters a fire weather watch is in effect for
Friday afternoon through Friday evening over southeast New Mexico,
the northwest Permian Basin, and the higher terrain.

Fire weather concerns decrease heading into the weekend as a Pacific
front arrives Saturday night and the upper-level storm system exits
the region on Sunday. Near-critical concerns may stick around
Saturday afternoon due to strong winds ahead of the front. Near
normal temperatures return Sunday mitigating fire concerns to at
most elevated conditions for similar locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  63  83  48 /   0  30  40  60
Carlsbad                 86  52  78  44 /  10   0  10  20
Dryden                   92  68  88  55 /   0  50  30  50
Fort Stockton            89  63  88  51 /  10  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           77  51  67  44 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    82  51  77  41 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                    81  53  79  43 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     90  63  83  49 /   0  20  20  50
Odessa                   88  62  82  49 /   0  20  20  50
Wink                     89  58  84  48 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13