Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

333 
WWUS84 KMAF 140517
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20
MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...


NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
150200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0010.250314T1700Z-250315T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /1117 PM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20
MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 7 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...3 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...8 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

44

606 
WWUS84 KMAF 140840
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
150200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0010.250314T1700Z-250315T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
340 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /240 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 20-FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...3 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...8 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

44

932 
WWUS84 KMAF 141016
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
150200-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FW.W.0010.250314T1100Z-250315T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
516 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /416 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR FOR 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
OF 15% OR LESS, AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR WIND AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical.

* IMPACTS... Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Extinguish smoking material in vehicles. 
  Accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow into 
  dangerous wind-driven wildfires.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...3 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...8 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect form late this morning through
  this evening for southeast New Mexico, down toward the Marfa
  Plateau, and the northwestern Permian Basin. Windy and dry
  conditions create critical fire weather conditions for these
  locations today.

- Strong to very strong winds and critical to extreme fire weather
  conditions are expected tomorrow as a potent system pushes into
  the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures take a slight
  dip.

- Heading into next week, we begin a warming trend ahead of
  another upper-level system that looks to arrive
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

WV imagery this morning shows yesterday's upper trough moving
through the ArklaTex, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under northwest flow aloft.  This will be temporary, as a larger
trough approaching the west coast is pushing a weak ridge through
the region.

The trough is forecast to make landfall later this morning, around
15Z or so, pushing the ridge farther east and transitioning flow
aloft to progressive southwesterly.  Leeside surface troughing on
the Front Range will begin increasing southwest winds over the
higher terrain, with downslope warming under partly cloudy skies
increasing thicknesses and yielding pleasant afternoon highs around
10 F above normal.  The NAM develops a mountain wave signature over
the Guadalupes this afternoon, and high winds look likely, but these
don't look strong enough, widespread enough, or long enough in
duration to warrant a warning, especially in lieu of what's on the
way tonight and Friday.  Thus, we've cancelled the High Wind Warning
for this afternoon.

Tonight, the west coast trough will push east, tilting negatively
and moving through the Four Corners 06-09Z Friday.  As this occurs,
the mountain wave signature goes off the chart, and 700mb height
gradients tighten up to better than 60m/100nm!  This portends one of
the strongest high wind events for West Texas and Southeast new
Mexico in some time.  High winds will develop in the Guadalupes
during the evening, but mountain waves/pressure gradients/MOS
suggest high winds could spread east and south after midnight.  For
brevity and to avoid sowing confusion, we're going to avoid
advisories in areas that will be upgraded to warnings Friday, and
just issue warnings early instead.  These warnings will be extended
through Friday evening.  Hurricane force winds are expected in the
Guadalupes.  Mixing and a few clouds will keep overnight minimums 9-
10 F above normal.  Isolated showers are possible in the Guadalupes,
but QPF looks to be negligible.

Friday, the trough ejects, from northeast New Mexico at around 12Z
to northeast Kansas by 00Z Saturday.  Subsidence on the backside of
the trough will translate high winds to the surface, and we've
issued a High Wind Watch for everything east of the Pecos not
already in a warning.  Attm, a wind advisory should cover the rest
of the zones. Widespread BLDU is a given, as well as critical fire
weather, the details of which are in the Fire Weather Discussion
below. Unfortunately, cooler air on the backside of the trough will
keep afternoon highs right at, to around 5 F below, climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Friday's troublesome upper-level trough will continue to gradually
make its way through our area overnight and through the day
Saturday. Winds remain breezy out of the west and northwest Friday
night and Saturday. Lows Friday night range from the mid 20s in
southeast New Mexico, the 30s for most, and the 40s near the Rio
Grande. Saturday's highs reach into the 60s for the majority of the
area, with 50s in the higher elevations and 70s near the Rio Grande.
Although this system will be moisture deprived for most of us, the
western half of our area will see low (10-30%) precipitation chances
Saturday morning associated with instability from the upper low.
Accumulation looks to be very light, potentially indicating light
showers or virga.

The upper trough finally lifts northeast by Sunday morning, bringing
about the return of more settled weather and a warming trend under
upper ridging. Highs Sunday warm into the 60s and 70s, then 70s and
80s on Monday. On Tuesday, another storm system swings over the
western US, strengthening southwesterly winds aloft. Meanwhile, at
the surface, an area of high pressure near the southeastern US and
an area of low pressure over the Central Great Plains steer our
winds out of the southwest. These features work in tandem to provide
us with our warmest day in the period, as highs Tuesday look to
range in the 80s and 90s, with some spots along the Rio Grande
heating up to the century mark! Alas, a cold front associated with
the upper trough arrives sometime Tuesday night, leading to lows in
the 40s and 50s, then highs Wednesday in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

VFR ceilings prevail through the period. Breezy southwesterly
winds are expected throughout the afternoon at most terminals.
Winds will decrease by sunset before strong westerly winds
significantly pick up by the early morning hours. BLDU was not
included in the TAFs given confidence in timing, however,
confidence is increasing of this to occur during the late morning
to afternoon hours tomorrow which could reduce visibilities to
MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

MinRH values in the teens and single digits, dry to critically dry
fuels, and breezy winds combine this afternoon over the higher
elevations and much of the western half of our region. As such, we
have issued a Red Flag Warning for southeast New Mexico down toward
the Marfa Plateau, and the western Permian Basin this afternoon
through this evening.

Friday is still on track to be our biggest fire weather threat day.
Strong to very strong winds, minRH values in the teens and single
digits, and ERC values well over the 90th percentile are expected
areawide. The culmination of these factors will lead to critical to
extreme fire weather conditions.

By Saturday, winds gradually taper down as the upper trough
progresses eastward. However, breezy winds keep the fire weather
threat critical from southeast New Mexico down toward the Big Bend.
The upper-level system finally departs Sunday, taking the winds and
increased fire weather conditions with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  51  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77  43  61  38 /   0  20   0   0
Dryden                   88  59  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  53  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  37  51  34 /   0  30  10  10
Hobbs                    76  42  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    76  44  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     80  49  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  49  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     82  47  67  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM
     CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Friday
     night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11