High Wind Watch 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1058 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

 - High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
   Mountains, as well as the plains of Eddy County, tomorrow
   morning through the evening. Wind advisories are in effect for
   surrounding areas.

 - A strong weather system moves over the region Sunday afternoon
   resulting in very windy conditions across the Guadalupe
   Mountains and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos with gusty
   winds elsewhere. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
   Sunday afternoon across most of the area.

 - An intense weather system moves across the area Monday
   afternoon through Tuesday. Very windy conditions are expected
   for a large portion of the area with patchy areas of blowing
   dust during this period. Widespread fire weather is expected
   for much of the Southern Great Plains. Fire Weather and Wind
   products will likely (70-90% chance) be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough centered over
northeast Baja del Norte, pushing a ridge through West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. This makes for a great start to March,
albeit a little on the cool side.

The trough is forecast to mosey east overnight, arriving in central
New Mexico by 12Z Sunday and resulting in progressive southwest flow
aloft over the region.  Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead
of this feature will develop a 50+kt LLJ overnight, keeping mixing
in place and overnight minimums averaging almost 15 F above normal.

As the trough passes to the north Sunday morning, isolated showers
will be possible, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains.  The
NAM develops a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes beginning
around 09Z Sunday, and continuing through Sunday evening. 700mb
height gradients tighten up to almost 60m/150nm, making for a windy
day Sunday, at least out west over the higher terrain.  We'll
upgrade/expand the watch to a warning, and throw in wind advisories
where appropriate.  Given our lack of rain/dry soils, BLDU is a
given, at least out west.  Needless to say, this will increase fire
weather concerns. See Fire Weather Discussion below for more
details.  Downslope warming under sunny skies will result in
afternoon temperatures topping out ~ 6-8 F above normal.

Gradients will relax after sundown Sunday night.  Overnight lows
will be around 5 F cooler than tonight behind a Pac front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

By Monday, an upper-level weather system will move from the Four
Corners region towards the OK/KS/CO border. This weather system will
allow for a surface lee cyclone to develop in eastern CO by Monday
evening. Meanwhile, a strong jet streak (with generally 50-70kt
winds) on the southern edge of the weather system will begin to move
over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Tightening pressure
gradients associated with the lee cyclone, coupled with effective
mixing due to dry and unseasonably warm conditions (highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s), will set the stage for strengthening winds
across the region Monday afternoon, especially for the westernmost
parts of our area (ie southeast New Mexico) and in the terrain.
Increasing winds, along with critically low RHs in these locations,
will allow for near-critical to critical fire weather Monday
afternoon. Tuesday afternoon, winds will increase even more across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas as the low pressure system to
the north continues to strengthen and the jet core moves overhead.
In addition to once again setting the stage for (more widespread)
critical to perhaps extremely critical fire weather conditions, even
the NBM 25th percentile shows sustained winds reaching at least
Advisory criteria by Tuesday afternoon (for reference, the NBM has a
habit of underdoing winds out here). This lends increasing
confidence (70-90%) that in addition to the fire weather Tuesday,
Wind Advisory and High Wind Warnings will also be necessary
areawide. Blowing dust is an additional concern given the dry and
windy conditions. Any rain chances associated with this system
will be more or less confined just east of the CWA. All that is to
say, the first part of the week looks pretty eventful, and we
expect to issue fire weather and wind products for this timeframe
in future forecast packages.

Wednesday, winds will temporarily turn northerly and more seasonable
temperatures (60s and low 70s) will overspread the region behind a
weak cold front. By Thursday however another warm-up commences as
surface flow once again becomes southerly in response to yet another
developing lee cyclone near the OK/KS/CO border out ahead of the
next big weather system. Thursday afternoon into Friday, winds will
once again increase as the jet streak associated with the system
moves overhead. Since dry conditions are not going anywhere anytime
soon, fire weather conditions may once again flair up on these days
(20-40% confidence) before the system (and the associated windiness)
moves out Saturday morning. Behind it, more seasonable highs (upper
60s and low 70s) will take hold for at least the early part of the
weekend.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Southerly and southeasterly winds tonight gradually shift to
southwesterly around sunrise. A passing weather system causes
strong and gusty west winds to develop through the afternoon for
all sites. Blowing dust may develop in some locations but any
aviation impacts remain very low confidence at this time. Winds
quickly weaken after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025

An active period of fire weather begins on Sunday. With no rain in
recent weeks and continued dry weather, fuels have begun to reach
critically dry levels with ERCs climbing towards the 75th and 90th
percentiles. Dry conditions are expected to continue for the region
into next week with periods of elevated winds, combining to cause
fire weather concerns. Our first weather system impacts the region
on Sunday. The strongest winds are to be expected across the
Guadalupe Mountains and Upper Trans Pecos with continued low teens
and single digit relative humidity during the afternoon, resulting
in critical fire weather. Another area of critical fire weather is
anticipated to form immediately behind the advancing dryline across
the Eastern Permian Basin. A low-level thermal ridge is forecast to
develop and there is increasing confidence (>50%) that a corridor of
single digit relative humidities and locally stronger wind speeds
will develop. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
most of the region. There is moderate to high confidence (40-70%)
that at least portions of this watch will need to be upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning tonight.

Little overnight recovery is to be expected on Sunday night. Another
afternoon of low teens and single digit relative humidities further
dry the fire environment. The next system still looks like it will
be at our doorstep earlier than previously expected, with the upper-
level jet entering southeast New Mexico by Monday afternoon. As a
result, confidence is increasing that near-critical to critical fire
weather will develop Monday afternoon in SE New Mexico and in the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains (> 50%). However, because of
shakier confidence in timing and eastward extent, have elected to
hold off on issuing products for Monday for now. Recoveries Monday
night will once again be poor. By Tuesday afternoon winds of 20-
30kts are expected areawide and, since RHs in the teens and single-
digits will be in place, critical to perhaps extremely critical fire
weather will exist over much of the region. Tuesday continues to be
the day of greatest concern. We will see a respite in fire weather
Wednesday, but winds once again increase Thursday and Friday. Dry
conditions will not have gone anywhere by then, so yet another round
of fire weather may develop by then (20-40% confidence at this
time).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  76  46  84 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 46  71  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   56  85  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  77  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  62  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  70  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  72  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   54  72  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     50  75  43  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ Sunday for Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for Eddy Plains-Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91