High Wind Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

667 
WWUS74 KMAF 112059
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-121100-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.250212T0500Z-250213T0100Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Queen,
and Pine Springs
159 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025 /259 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...From 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ this evening to 6 PM MST /7 PM 
  CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

223 
WWUS74 KMAF 120134
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

NMZ027-TXZ271-121200-
/O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0004.250212T0134Z-250212T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.250212T0500Z-250213T0100Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Pine
Springs, and Queen
634 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025 /734 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-half 
  and three miles in blowing dust. For the High Wind Warning, west 
  winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. In 
  Texas, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
  this evening. For the High Wind Warning, from 10 PM MST /11 PM 
  CST/ this evening to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. 
  A sudden gust of wind could drop visibility to near zero 
  instantly. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down, use low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance 
between you and other vehicles.

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

TXZ270-121200-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.250212T0500Z-250213T0100Z/
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park
634 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 
PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272>278-281-120500-
/O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0004.250212T0134Z-250212T0500Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Van Horn, Artesia, Alpine, Presidio,
Carlsbad, Marfa, Pecos, Carlsbad Caverns NP, and Fort Davis
634 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025 /734 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Visibility between one-half and three miles in blowing dust.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Chinati 
  Mountains, Davis Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills, Marfa 
  Plateau, Presidio Valley, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and 
  Reeves County Plains, and Eastern Culberson County.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. 
  A sudden gust of wind could drop visibility to near zero instantly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down, use low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance 
between you and other vehicles.

&&

$$

Chehak

255 
WWUS74 KMAF 120628
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1128 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-130300-
/O.EXT.KMAF.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Pine
Springs, and Queen
1128 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025 /1228 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-130300-
/O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0004.250212T0628Z-250213T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-
Including the cities of Carlsbad, Van Horn, Carlsbad Caverns NP,
and Artesia
1128 PM MST Tue Feb 11 2025 /1228 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern 
  Culberson County, and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

DeBerry

730 
WWUS74 KMAF 121127
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
427 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-130300-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Pine
Springs, and Queen
427 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /527 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-060>063-067>070-075-082-121700-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FG.Y.0003.250212T1200Z-250212T1700Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-
Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Including the cities of Big Spring, Lamesa, Andrews, Tatum,
Seminole, Odessa, Snyder, McCamey, Eunice, Hobbs, Garden City,
Gail, Colorado City, Big Lake, Crane, Lovington, Rankin, Stanton,
Jal, Dryden, Sanderson, Monahans, Fort Stockton, Kermit, and
Midland
427 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /527 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western 
  Texas.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. 
  Driving conditions will be hazardous due to low visibility and 
  rapid changes in visibility over short distances. Fog and drizzle 
  will make some road surfaces slick and significantly reduce 
  stopping ability.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-130300-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-
Including the cities of Carlsbad, Van Horn, Carlsbad Caverns NP,
and Artesia
427 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /527 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern 
  Culberson County, and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

DeBerry

070 
WWUS74 KMAF 121611
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
911 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-060>063-067>070-075-082-121715-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FG.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250212T1700Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-
Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Including the cities of Snyder, Big Spring, Gail, Big Lake,
Kermit, Lamesa, Jal, Andrews, Hobbs, Colorado City, Garden City,
Dryden, Rankin, Odessa, Lovington, Midland, Sanderson, Monahans,
Tatum, Fort Stockton, Eunice, Crane, Stanton, Seminole, and
McCamey
911 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /1011 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Dense fog has lifted over the area, thus, the Dense Fog Advisory has 
been cancelled.

$$

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-130015-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Pine
Springs, and Queen
911 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /1011 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-130015-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-
Including the cities of Artesia, Van Horn, Carlsbad Caverns NP,
and Carlsbad
911 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /1011 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern 
  Culberson County, and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

Lamberson

237 
WWUS74 KMAF 122039
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-130300-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Pine
Springs, and Queen
139 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /239 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

&&

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-130300-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-
Including the cities of Artesia, Van Horn, Carlsbad Caverns NP,
and Carlsbad
139 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /239 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern 
  Culberson County, and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

Lamberson

954 
WWUS74 KMAF 130109
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-130215-
/O.CAN.KMAF.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Pine Springs, Queen, and Guadalupe
Mountains National Park
609 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /709 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased early this evening therefore the threat has 
ended.

$$

NMZ028-TXZ272-273-130215-
/O.CAN.KMAF.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250213T0300Z/
Eddy County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern
Culberson-
Including the cities of Van Horn, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Artesia,
and Carlsbad
609 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025 /709 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased early this evening therefore the threat has 
ended.

$$

Chehak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1059 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

- There are medium to high rain chances (40-70%) for the eastern
  Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos through Tuesday night. Total
  rainfall will be negligible (near 0.1 inches for most of this area).

- A High Wind Watch is in effect from Tuesday evening through
  Wednesday afternoon for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, as
  well as eastern Culberson County. Another round of strong winds
  are possible from Friday evening through Saturday evening.

- Elevated to critical fire weather is possible this week, mainly
  Wednesday and Saturday along and west of the Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

VIS/RGB Satellite imagery continues to show broken to overcast
coverage of cloud cover over all but the southern Rio Grande basin
and points southwest of the Davis Mountains, where more scattered
cloud cover is present. Usual diurnal heating and boundary layer
mixing has allowed low stratus and denser regions of fog and mist to
lift this afternoon. However, WPC analysis depicts the cold front
the moved through yesterday returning north as a warm front, with
persistent isentropic upglide ahead of the front. This has kept
broken to overcast cloud cover present, and this is forecast to
continue into tomorrow before the warm front clears the area and a
dryline develops, veering northeasterly near surface winds more to
southwesterly and advecting in drier air. Applied 5:1 NBM5Pct NBM
blend to account for abundant low cloud cover limiting heating
from direct solar radiation. Highs are expected to range from 10
to 15 degrees below average in regions with more overcast cloud
cover, to 5 degrees below average southwest of Pecos River into
Terrell County, and 5 to 10 degrees above average over Culberson
County into the Davis Mountains and points south and west. This
translates to mid to upper 40s Lea County and Permian Basin, mid
to upper 50s Eddy County into Culberson County and along Pecos
River into northern Terrell County, 60s western Culberson County
into Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and 70s and above
elsewhere. As the front redevelops north, northeast winds veer to
southerly by this afternoon. Isentropic upglide and synoptic
forcing will mean most precipitation today will be light and in
the form of showers, highest PoPs remaining 25%-40%. Synoptic
scale ascent keeps cloud cover high despite veering winds. As a
short wave over Southern CA/Baja CA Coast quickly moves east and
northeast into the Southern Great Plains into tomorrow morning and
mid-level temperatures cool above WAA, PoPs may increase after
midnight into the 45%-55% range over northeast into southeast
Permian Basin, where heavier rain showers are indicated in grids.
Clouds limiting radiational cooling tonight keep lows 10 to 15
degrees above average, mid 40s to mid 50s, upper 30s to lower 40s
northern Lea County into northern Permian Basin. Dew point
depressions will again fall as temperatures and dew point
temperatures approach each other over eastern most portions of
Permian Basin. This along with light southerly winds maintaining
trajectories from more humid regions farther east and closer to
the gulf lead to formation of regions of patchy to widespread fog
from eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. As with this
morning, this fog is expected to dissipate with daytime heating
and increased boundary layer mixing.

Tuesday as the warm front moves north of the area and a dryline east
of all but the eastern portions of the CWA, decreasing cloud cover
over western and central portions of the CWA in the afternoon leads
to warmer highs than today. Highs Tuesday will range from  8 to 12
degrees above average to 5 to 10 degrees below average where
extensive and lower cloud ceilings farther east persist. This
translates to widespread upper 60s to 70s, mid 60s higher elevations
and northern and central Lea County into central Permian Basin north
and east of Midland-Odessa, and upper 40s to mid 50s Western Low
Rolling Plains. NBM has trended a few degrees higher northeast of
Davis Mountains concurrent with cloud cover trending lower, but
again applied 5:1 NBM5Pct NBM blend due to persistent low cloud
cover forecast over eastern portions of CWA.

Despite decreased overall cloud cover, heavier precipitation in the
form of rain and embedded thunderstorms may develop for the eastern
Stockton Plateau into eastern Permian Basin Tuesday into Tuesday
night as not only forcing from a dryline is present, but a
perturbation within troughing over the Desert Southwest pivots east
over the area, and increased mid to upper forcing for ascent,
moisture, and low-level WAA all assist in development of
precipitation more convective rather than stratiform in nature. PoPs
in regions of this more convective precipitation 45%-65% are
anticipated Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with a sharp
western edge to PoPs above 25% from northern Lea County into central
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Heavier precipitation limited to
eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau means rain totals
through the short term are only expected to be a few tenths of an
inch at most. Localized higher amounts expected at this time to
remain below 0.50" as spread in ensembles stays low and SPC only
outlines a general thunderstorm risk with mainly elevated
thunderstorms for these portions of our CWA. CAPE in forecast
soundings below 500 J/kg and lapse rates are insufficient for deeper
convection. Lows Tuesday night 8 to 12 degrees above average are
forecast due to less cloud cover and higher ceilings allowing for
more radiational cooling, meaning outside of more widespread 40s SE
NM plains and Permian Basin southwest to north of Rio Grande basins,
temperatures may fall into the mid 30s from Lea County into northern
Permian Basin and higher elevations by Wednesday morning. Just as
tonight, regions of patchy to widespread fog are forecast to develop
southwest from northeast Permian Basin into Central Permian Basin
for Tuesday night. NBM has also trended higher with lows Tuesday
night in last few runs so below freezing temperatures are not
expected. Winds begin to increase to 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
50 mph or higher Tuesday night into Wednesday over Culberson County
and Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Applied 1:1 NBM NBM90Pct blend
areawide to account for these higher winds. As a result of these
higher winds, a High Wind Watch is in effect beginning Tuesday
evening going through Wednesday afternoon. After this we will again
see a range of high temperatures as a front meanders over the area.
More on this in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

A strong westerly mid level flow pattern will develop over the
forecast area on Wednesday along the base of a large scale trough
that will be moving across the Rocky Mountains. A surface trough
of low pressure will extend over southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas Wednesday morning, while the surface frontal
boundary will be oriented over the Texas Panhandle and Low Rolling
Plains. Breezy westerly winds will develop across much of the
forecast area late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with
strong mid level flow aloft and gradient low level flow aiding in
westerly winds up to 20-30 mph with higher gusts over the Plains.
A decent mountain wave signature also takes shape over the
Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday forcing stronger
40-50 kt flow downward for a potential high wind event during this
time. Latest model cross sections show the mountain wave
decreasing in strength with a gradual decrease in wind flow
Wednesday night into Thursday, so the High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains is now effect for Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon. Left the watch configuration as is
and will let later shifts determine if further adjustments are
necessary. The cold front will otherwise make its way back into
most areas along and east of the mountains in a back door fashion
Wednesday night and likely remain stalled along the mountains into
Thursday. The roller coaster ride of temperatures will continue
with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s Wednesday falling back down
into the 40s and 50s east of the mountains behind the front on
Thursday. Much colder morning lows are also anticipated Thursday
and Friday mornings.

The next trough will deepen over the western CONUS late this week
before progressing east over the Plains on Saturday. Breezy
southerly to southwesterly winds will develop on Friday, which may
be followed by stronger westerly to northwesterly winds behind a
passing front on Saturday. High temperatures warm back up into the
60s and 70s on Friday and Saturday, trending cooler in the 50s and
60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

IFR CIGs sit just east of MAF/FST and will move westward late
tonight and hold on through the morning. Patchy fog will be seen,
but have kept mention out of the latest issuance as timing/impact
for terminals remains uncertain. Brief DZ or RA may also be seen,
but will not last long if it does occur. Winds continue to remain
light coming in under 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  54  40  62 /  60  30  60   0
Carlsbad                 41  72  43  65 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                   51  73  51  79 /  50  10  30   0
Fort Stockton            51  78  48  71 /  40  10  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           46  63  41  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    40  65  39  60 /  10  10  20   0
Marfa                    46  70  42  65 /  40  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     46  65  44  65 /  50  10  50   0
Odessa                   47  67  44  66 /  40  10  40   0
Wink                     43  74  42  68 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93