High Wind Warning 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

673 
WWUS74 KMAF 170206
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
706 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025

NMZ027-028-034-TXZ270-271-273-274-277-278-171015-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0004.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Southern
Lea-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Carlsbad Caverns NP, Eunice, Alpine, Pine
Springs, Pecos, Artesia, Guadalupe Mountains National Park,
Carlsbad, Jal, Queen, and Fort Davis
706 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 /806 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 
10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New 
  Mexico, Eddy County Plains, Southern Lea, Eastern Culberson, 
  Reeves County Plains, Davis Mountains, and Davis Mountains 
  Foothills.

* WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe 
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying 
  light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but 
  extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the 
  near the Guadalupe Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if 
possible.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

TXZ048-070-279-171015-
/O.EXA.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Scurry-Reagan-Central Brewster-
Including the cities of Snyder, Marathon, Big Lake, Panther
Junction, and Big Bend National Park
806 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central Brewster, Reagan, and Scurry Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 11 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-TXZ045>047-050>053-059>063-067>069-075-272-275-276-280-
281-171015-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin-
Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-
Upton-Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Seminole, Chisos Basin, Fort Stockton,
Mentone, Kermit, Gail, Crane, Marfa, Presidio, Lovington, Hobbs,
Odessa, Monahans, Colorado City, McCamey, Tatum, Midland, Big
Spring, Lamesa, Rankin, Garden City, Stanton, Andrews, Big Bend
National Park, and Van Horn
706 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 /806 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 10 PM 
MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western 
  Texas.

* WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

R Hluchan

609 
WWUS74 KMAF 170842
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

TXZ059-060-067-172100-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KMAF.HW.W.0004.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-
Including the cities of Monahans, Mentone, and Kermit
242 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM CST 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Loving, Ward, and Winkler Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 11 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Gusty winds may 
  blow around unsecured objects. Damaging winds may topple a few 
  trees and possibly knock out some power lines. Damage to weaker 
  structures is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

NMZ027-028-034-TXZ270-271-273-274-277-278-172100-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0004.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Southern
Lea-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Queen, Jal, Guadalupe Mountains National
Park, Alpine, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Fort Davis, Eunice, Artesia,
Carlsbad, Pecos, and Pine Springs
142 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /242 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New 
  Mexico, Eddy County Plains, Southern Lea, Eastern Culberson, 
  Reeves County Plains, Davis Mountains, and Davis Mountains 
  Foothills.

* WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ this morning to 10 PM MST /11 PM 
  CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Gusty winds may 
  blow around unsecured objects. Damaging winds may topple a few 
  trees and possibly knock out some power lines. Damage to weaker 
  structures is also possible. Severe turbulence near the mountains 
  will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation 
  interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or 
  strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe 
  Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-TXZ045>048-050>053-061>063-068>070-075-272-275-276-
279>281-172100-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-
Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Chinati Mountains-Marfa
Plateau-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Midland, Chisos Basin, McCamey, Big
Spring, Andrews, Lamesa, Gail, Crane, Snyder, Garden City,
Presidio, Tatum, Marathon, Fort Stockton, Hobbs, Colorado City,
Seminole, Big Lake, Big Bend National Park, Odessa, Rankin,
Panther Junction, Stanton, Van Horn, Lovington, and Marfa
142 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /242 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ THIS 
MORNING TO 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western 
  Texas.

* WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ this morning to 10 PM MST /11 PM 
  CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

Lamberson

319 
WWUS74 KMAF 171826
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

NMZ028-034-TXZ059-060-067-273-274-180500-
/O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0001.250117T1826Z-250118T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea-Loving-Winkler-Ward-Eastern
Culberson-Reeves County Plains-
Including the cities of Jal, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Monahans,
Mentone, Eunice, Kermit, Pecos, Carlsbad, and Artesia
1126 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /1226 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between 
  one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the High Wind 
  Warning, west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains, and Southern Lea 
  County. In Texas, Eastern Culberson, Loving, Ward, and Winkler 
  Counties, and Reeves County Plains.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ 
  this evening. For the High Wind Warning, until 10 PM MST /11 PM 
  CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. 
  Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles 
  like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Gusty winds may blow 
  around unsecured objects. Damaging winds may topple a few trees 
  and possibly knock out some power lines. Damage to weaker 
  structures is also possible. Severe turbulence near the mountains 
  will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation 
  interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or 
  strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe 
  Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay 
indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in 
visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing 
sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far 
as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the 
way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, 
Stay Alive'.

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if 
possible.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-277-278-180500-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Queen, Fort Davis, Pine Springs, Alpine,
and Guadalupe Mountains National Park
1126 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /1226 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New 
  Mexico, Davis Mountains, and Davis Mountains Foothills.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile 
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Gusty winds may 
  blow around unsecured objects. Damaging winds may topple a few 
  trees and possibly knock out some power lines. Damage to weaker 
  structures is also possible. Severe turbulence near the mountains 
  will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation 
  interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or 
  strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe 
  Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the 
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving 
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles 
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the 
winds subside.

Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if 
possible.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is 
possible.

Prepare for downed trees and minor property damage along with the 
possibility of power outages.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

NMZ029-033-TXZ045>048-050>053-061>063-068>070-075-180500-
/O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0001.250117T1826Z-250118T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-
Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Pecos-
Including the cities of Big Spring, McCamey, Snyder, Andrews,
Lovington, Seminole, Fort Stockton, Garden City, Midland, Crane,
Big Lake, Odessa, Lamesa, Stanton, Tatum, Rankin, Gail, Colorado
City, and Hobbs
1126 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /1226 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between 
  one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind Advisory, 
  west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western 
  Texas.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ 
  this evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. 
  Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay 
indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in 
visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing 
sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far 
as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the 
way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, 
Stay Alive'.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

TXZ272-275-276-279>281-180500-
/O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-
Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Marfa, Big Bend National Park, Panther
Junction, Chisos Basin, Van Horn, Marathon, and Presidio
1226 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Brewster County, and Chinati Mountains, Chisos 
  Basin, Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Van Horn and Highway 54 
  Corridor.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the 
steering wheel.

Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong 
winds.

Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility.

&&

$$

DeBerry

044 
WWUS74 KMAF 180333
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
833 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

NMZ027-028-034-TXZ059-060-067-270-271-273-274-277-278-180445-
/O.CAN.KMAF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Southern
Lea-Loving-Winkler-Ward-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson-Reeves County
Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Pine Springs, Queen, Fort Davis,
Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Eunice, Monahans, Carlsbad,
Artesia, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Mentone, Kermit, Pecos, Alpine, and
Jal
833 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /933 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended.

$$

NMZ029-033-TXZ045>048-050>053-061>063-068>070-075-272-275-276-
279>281-180445-
/O.CAN.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-250118T0500Z/
Northern Lea-Central Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-
Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Chinati Mountains-Marfa
Plateau-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Including the cities of Lovington, Fort Stockton, Garden City,
Van Horn, Big Bend National Park, Colorado City, Big Spring,
Andrews, McCamey, Panther Junction, Gail, Chisos Basin, Lamesa,
Marathon, Seminole, Midland, Presidio, Marfa, Crane, Big Lake,
Snyder, Rankin, Tatum, Hobbs, Stanton, and Odessa
833 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 /933 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended.

$$

R Hluchan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

- Strong westerly winds are expected on Friday. Wind Advisories
  are likely for much of the region with High Wind Warnings possible
  for the higher elevations. Difficult driving conditions and
  loose objects blowing around are likely.

- A strong cold front will see the return of arctic air and well
  below normal temperatures starting on Saturday and continuing
  into next week.

- Wind chills may drop into the teens and single digits beginning
  on Sunday. This will be dangerous with extended exposure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Night Fog and Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery show
continued high clouds drifting northeast over the area early this
morning. NBM grids show high cloud cover decreasing this
afternoon, especially to the southwest of the Pecos River.
Decreased cloud cover allowing more solar heating as well as light
southerly near surface winds under weak ridging and quasi-zonal
mid to upper tropospheric flow will allow highs to climb 4 to 5
degrees above average southwest of the Pecos River and far eastern
Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau, and near average SE NM
plains into Permian Basin. This will translate to highs in the mid
to upper 50s Culberson County into Davis Mountains and Lower
Trans Pecos as well as Upper Trans Pecos into northwest Permian
Basin, and 60s to lower 70s Presidio Valley and Big Bend.
Tonight, southerly winds begin to shift to more southwesterly to
westerly, as both deterministic and ensemble models show the base
of an approaching positively tilted short wave trough and
associated surface cold front from northern NM into TX panhandle
to the north and west moving into the area. Grids show high clouds
increasing again with increasing lift in advance of these
features, with clouds limiting radiational cooling result in lows
12 to 14 degrees above average in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tomorrow with increased boundary layer mixing from daytime
heating, southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to increase,
gusting up to 75 mph or more in higher elevations and surrounding
foothills into SE NM plains and Upper Trans Pecos, and 35 to 45
mph elsewhere. A High Wind Watch is in effect for tomorrow for the
Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau to account for these gusty winds.
With these gusty winds and recent relatively dry conditions,
patchy to widespread blowing dust will be a concern for most of
the area apart from Terrell County, reducing visibility and
creating more driving hazards in addition to the gusty winds.
Cloud cover is expected to decrease from northwest to southeast
tomorrow with passage of the front, but adiabatic compressional
warming from westerly downsloping winds will allow highs to rise 8
to 12 degrees above average into mid to upper 60s, lower to mid
50s higher elevations, and 70s and above, lower 80s in Big Bend,
in southernmost Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and eastern
Stockton Plateau. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the forecast
period and cooler than average weather is expected to return by
this weekend into next week. More on that in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

The jet max bringing the windy conditions Friday moves east
Saturday and a deepening low pressure system over the Midwest
sends an arctic air mass south into the region. The initial surge
will be shallow and stall out along the Pecos River valley before
diurnal cooling and continued cold air advection sends the front
through the higher elevations and into the Big Bend. This begins a
period of several days with lows dropping into the teens and highs
only reaching up into the 30s.

The temperature forecast will depend greatly on cloud cover. Even
very cold air masses have shown a remarkable ability to warm
given clear skies. However DESI ensembles show there is a good
chance for low level moisture behind the front into at least
Tuesday, helping to keep afternoon highs in the 30s, possibly even
below freezing. They also show the mid and upper levels are dry,
so any moisture would be restricted to a thin layer between 850mb
and 700mb. Such a narrow band of moisture strongly suggests that
the chances for wintry precipitation are low, with light flurries
and no accumulations most likely. There is also a chance for
freezing drizzle that cannot be completely dismissed, but the
current forecast has low level maximum morning humidities only in
the 50s to 70s. Drizzle is difficult with humidities less than 80
to 85 percent so there could be too much evaporation in the
boundary layer. Therefore will continue to message the very cold
temperatures as the primary threat.

A shift to a more northwesterly upper flow pattern cuts off the
colder arctic air and southerly surface winds allow for some
warming late next week.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. High clouds will
increase overnight, then dissipate Friday. Surface winds will be
light out of the south this afternoon and overnight, but veer to
west and increase substantially near the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  42  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   62  43  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  47  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  40  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  36  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  41  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  43  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   59  43  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     59  39  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44