High Wind Warning 32, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- A cold front will bring breezy northerly winds and cooler
  temperatures to the area today.

- A warming trend returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  expected through the upcoming week. Dry weather conditions will
  continue through next Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Not much has changed over the past 24 hours.  WV imagery this
morning shows the upper ridge off the coast of Mexico, putting West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft.  00Z
KMAF raob came in w/a pwat of just 0.40", or just over the 20th
percentile.  W/this in mind, precipitation still remains out
of the question for the duration of the forecast.

Latest mesoanalysis/observations show a cold front just entering the
northern zones at 06Z.  Unfortunately, this will result in a much
cooler and blustery day than yesterday.  Latest CAMs suggest the
cold front will shave a good 10 F off of yesterday's highs.  Highs
looks to average ~ 4-6 F below normal, with all but the river
valleys remaining in the 60s at best.

Tonight, surface winds will veer back to return flow, but go light,
combining with mostly clear skies to promote efficient radiational
cooling and allow lows to cool to a couple of degrees below normal.
Only a couple of very isolated spots in the Davis Mountains/Marfa
Plateau look to reach freezing, but temporal and areal coverage are
not enough to warrant a warning attm.

Fortunately, this cool spell will be brief, and temperatures Sunday
look to make an appreciable rebound to ~ 4-6 F above climatology,
putting most locations back in the 70s as thicknesses increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A strong upper-level ridge will build across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas Sunday night into Monday. This feature will remain
elongated across central and southern portions of Texas Monday
night and Tuesday. A deep layer dry airmass will remain entrenched
over our region underneath this feature through Tuesday, with
very low precipitable water values averaging between 0.25" and
0.5". Skies will generally remain clear through the early part of
the week, except for perhaps a few high clouds clipping northern
portions of our CWA on Tuesday. A surface trough will take shape
across eastern New Mexico and west Texas Monday and Tuesday,
allowing for southerly/southwesterly winds and a return to above
normal temperatures across our region. Early morning lows will
range in the lower 40s to lower 50s, while high temperatures range
in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most of our forecast area both
days.

The upper level flow pattern will transition more zonal on
Wednesday. W-NW flow aloft looks to generally prevail through the
latter part of the week on the base of and in the wake of a trough
passing from the Rocky Mountains to the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley region. A very dry airmass will remain in place
with precipitable water values continuing to average less than
0.50" through the middle to latter half of the week. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions will persist Wednesday-Friday. A weak
surface front may enter far northern portions of our forecast area
on Wednesday, but looks to quickly weaken/become diffuse by
Wednesday night. Low level thermal ridging enhances over much of
our area ahead of this boundary, so high temperatures Wednesday
afternoon should average a little over 10 degrees above normal for
early November with highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s
over much of the region, except for readings in the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees over the higher terrain areas and in the upper
80s to lower 90s along the Rio Grande. Another round of above
normal temperatures is anticipated on Thursday as the surface lee
trough takes shape again across the region. Another weak cold
front may push through southeast New Mexico and portions of west
Texas Thursday night. Highs on Friday may be just a few degrees
cooler than Wednesday/Thursday, but still averaging several
degrees above normal with readings in the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the region. Early morning lows will continue to range in
the 40s to lower 50s through the middle to latter part of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. The main concern will
be a cold front. Latest NAM buffer soundings put fropa at KHOB
first at around 06Z, and clearing KFST around 10Z or 11Z. The
front is not particularly strong, but should provide gusty winds
throughout the day Friday. These winds will quickly veer back to
light return flow after sundown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  40  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  41  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  43  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  44  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  33  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   66  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     69  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...44