Alert archive / Texas / High Wind Warnings in 2025
High Wind Warning 11, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this high wind warning at Mar 1, 2025, 11:23 AM MST for Eddy County, New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas. It took effect at Mar 2, 2025, 3:00 AM MST. It was in force for 14 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 1, 2025, 11:23 AM MST (18:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 2, 2025, 3:00 AM MST
- Expired
- Mar 2, 2025, 5:18 PM MST
- In force
- 14 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Counties Eddy County, NM, Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Presidio County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 215 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 7:38 AM MST | NON-TSTM WND GST 76 | 3 Nnw Pine Springs, TX | Mesonet station GDBT2 The Bowl. |
| Mar 2, 9:20 AM MST | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 6 W Whites City, NM | Carlsbad Caverns NP Mesonet. |
| Mar 2, 10:49 AM MST | NON-TSTM WND GST 59 | Pine Springs, TX | Mesonet station 60 Pine Springs GMNP. |
| Mar 2, 11:51 AM MST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Carlsbad, NM | Facebook photo shows a fallen tree due to high winds in the city of Carlsbad. Wind gusts were estimated to be aprroximately 60 mph. |
| Mar 2, 11:58 AM MST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 7 Wsw Mcdonald Observat, TX | Mesonet station WDPT2 Wolf Den Dmp. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2432 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
608 WWUS74 KMAF 011823 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1123 AM MST Sat Mar 1 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-030300- /O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0009.250302T1200Z-250303T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0011.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Pine Springs, and Guadalupe Mountains National Park 1123 AM MST Sat Mar 1 2025 /1223 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico. * WHEN...From 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ028-TXZ273-277-030300- /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0011.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Eddy County Plains-Eastern Culberson-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Artesia, Fort Davis, Carlsbad, and Carlsbad Caverns NP 1123 AM MST Sat Mar 1 2025 /1223 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Davis Mountains, and Eastern Culberson County. * WHEN...From 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ TXZ272-278-030300- /O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Van Horn and Alpine 1223 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Davis Mountains Foothills and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ DeBerry
5 follow-up statements
028 WWUS74 KMAF 020728 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1228 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-277-022100- /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.A.0010.250303T1700Z-250305T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains National Park, Fort Davis, Queen, and Pine Springs 1228 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected. For the High Wind Watch, west winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph possible. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the High Wind Watch, from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. && $$ NMZ028-TXZ273-022100- /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Eddy County Plains-Eastern Culberson- Including the cities of Carlsbad, Carlsbad Caverns NP, and Artesia 1228 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern Culberson County. * WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067-274-022100- /O.EXA.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry- Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland- Glasscock-Ward-Reeves County Plains- Including the cities of Lovington, Lamesa, Seminole, Mentone, Andrews, Jal, Snyder, Stanton, Kermit, Colorado City, Pecos, Eunice, Monahans, Garden City, Gail, Tatum, Big Spring, Midland, Hobbs, and Odessa 1228 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and western Texas. * WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ TXZ272-278-022100- /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.250302T1000Z-250303T0300Z/ Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Van Horn and Alpine 128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Davis Mountains Foothills and Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. * WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ Chehak
315 WWUS74 KMAF 021736 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1036 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-277-042345- /O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.250302T1736Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.A.0010.250303T1700Z-250305T0000Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Pine Springs, Fort Davis, and Guadalupe Mountains National Park 1036 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /1136 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the High Wind Warning, west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. For the High Wind Watch, west winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 85 mph possible. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory and High Wind Warning, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the High Wind Watch, from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. && $$ NMZ028-TXZ273-030300- /O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.250302T1736Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Eddy County Plains-Eastern Culberson- Including the cities of Carlsbad Caverns NP, Carlsbad, and Artesia 1036 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /1136 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern Culberson County. * WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067-272-274-278-030300- /O.NEW.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.250302T1736Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry- Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland- Glasscock-Ward-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Van Horn, Monahans, Kermit, Seminole, Alpine, Odessa, Garden City, Gail, Big Spring, Mentone, Lamesa, Midland, Colorado City, Andrews, Hobbs, Pecos, Stanton, Snyder, Eunice, Lovington, Tatum, and Jal 1036 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /1136 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western Texas. * WHEN...Until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ DeBerry
577 WWUS74 KMAF 021926 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-277-050300- /O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0010.250303T1700Z-250305T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0012.250303T1600Z-250305T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Pine Springs, Fort Davis, and Guadalupe Mountains National Park 1226 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the first High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the second High Wind Warning, west winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 85 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...For the first High Wind Warning and Blowing Dust Advisory, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the second High Wind Warning, from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ028-TXZ273-050300- /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0012.250303T1600Z-250305T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Eddy County Plains-Eastern Culberson- Including the cities of Carlsbad Caverns NP, Carlsbad, and Artesia 1226 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the first High Wind Warning, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the second High Wind Warning, west winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected. * WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains. In Texas, Eastern Culberson County. * WHEN...For the first High Wind Warning and Blowing Dust Advisory, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the second High Wind Warning, from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ029-033-034-TXZ272-278-041200- /O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Alpine, Eunice, Van Horn, Hobbs, Lovington, Tatum, and Jal 1226 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the first Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. For the second Wind Advisory, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Lea County, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and Davis Mountains Foothills. * WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory and first Wind Advisory, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the second Wind Advisory, from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ TXZ275-276-041200- /O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau- Including the cities of Marfa 126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Chinati Mountains and Marfa Plateau. * WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. && $$ TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067-274-030300- /O.CON.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving- Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Reeves County Plains- Including the cities of Lamesa, Stanton, Snyder, Midland, Colorado City, Kermit, Andrews, Odessa, Garden City, Gail, Monahans, Big Spring, Pecos, Seminole, and Mentone 126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one-quarter and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of western Texas. * WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ DeBerry
828 WWUS74 KMAF 022305 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 405 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 NMZ027-028-TXZ270-271-273-277-050300- /O.CAN.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0012.250303T1600Z-250305T0300Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Eastern Culberson-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Fort Davis, Carlsbad, Artesia, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and Pine Springs 405 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /505 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ TUESDAY... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the first High Wind Warning, west winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. For the second High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, Eddy County Plains, Eastern Culberson, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...For the first High Wind Warning, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the second High Wind Warning, from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ NMZ029-033-034-TXZ272-278-041200- /O.CAN.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Alpine, Eunice, Van Horn, Hobbs, Lovington, Tatum, and Jal 405 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /505 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the first Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. For the second Wind Advisory, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Lea County, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and Davis Mountains Foothills. * WHEN...For the first Wind Advisory, until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening. For the second Wind Advisory, from 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067-274-030300- /O.CAN.KMAF.DU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving- Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Reeves County Plains- Including the cities of Lamesa, Stanton, Snyder, Midland, Colorado City, Kermit, Andrews, Odessa, Garden City, Gail, Monahans, Big Spring, Pecos, Seminole, and Mentone 505 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of western Texas. * WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ TXZ275-276-041200- /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau- Including the cities of Marfa 505 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Chinati Mountains and Marfa Plateau. * WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. && $$ DeBerry
804 WWUS74 KMAF 030018 NPWMAF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 518 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 NMZ027-028-TXZ270-271-273-277-050300- /O.CAN.KMAF.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0012.250303T1600Z-250305T0300Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Eastern Culberson-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Fort Davis, Carlsbad, Artesia, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and Pine Springs 518 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /618 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, Eddy County Plains, Eastern Culberson, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...From 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. && $$ NMZ029-033-034-TXZ272-278-041200- /O.CAN.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Southern Lea-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Alpine, Eunice, Van Horn, Hobbs, Lovington, Tatum, and Jal 518 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025 /618 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025/ ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Lea County, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and Davis Mountains Foothills. * WHEN...From 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ Monday to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. && $$ TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067-274-030130- /O.CAN.KMAF.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250303T0300Z/ Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving- Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Reeves County Plains- Including the cities of Lamesa, Stanton, Snyder, Midland, Colorado City, Kermit, Andrews, Odessa, Garden City, Gail, Monahans, Big Spring, Pecos, Seminole, and Mentone 618 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The threat has ended. $$ TXZ275-276-041200- /O.CON.KMAF.WI.Y.0007.250303T1600Z-250304T1200Z/ Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau- Including the cities of Marfa 618 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Chinati Mountains and Marfa Plateau. * WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. && $$ DeBerry
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Mar 1, 10:05 AM MST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1101 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
- Warm and dry weather with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal are expected this weekend through Monday.
- A strong weather system moves over the region Sunday afternoon resulting in very windy conditions across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos with gusty winds elsewhere. Fire weather will be of concern for portions of the Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains.
- An intense weather system moves across the area late Monday through Tuesday. Very windy conditions are expected for a large portion of the area with patchy areas of blowing dust during this period. Widespread fire weather is expected for much of the Southern Great Plains.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 10:05 AM MST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1105 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
- Warm and dry weather with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal are expected this weekend through Monday.
- A strong weather system moves over the region Sunday afternoon
resulting in very windy conditions across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos with gusty
winds elsewhere. Fire weather will be of concern for portions
of the Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico, and the Guadalupe
Mountains.
- An intense weather system moves across the area late Monday
through Tuesday. Very windy conditions are expected for a large
portion of the area with patchy areas of blowing dust during
this period. Widespread fire weather is expected for much of
the Southern Great Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
The warm weather continues this weekend, although winds will be
picking up. Deterministic and ensemble models depict ridging across
the Intermountain West, downstream of an upper level low digging
southeast into the Pacific SW and Desert SW. This low is forecast to
open into a short wave and move northeast, with its effects being
felt across the area by Sunday. Before then, winds remain light and
variable, becoming more southerly/southeasterly in response to the
aforementioned approaching upper disturbance. Similar to last night,
IR and Nighttime Fog satellite imagery show only scattered high
clouds moving across the area from west to east. Scattered high
clouds will persist into tomorrow as subsidence and weak ridging in
advance of the upper disturbance in addition to higher relative
humidity air in the mid to upper troposphere allows for high cloud
formation.
Today, went with NBM for highs as coarse and high-resolution
deterministic models are in better agreement with highs in NBM than
yesterday, and higher end values in the lower to mid 80s in the Big
Bend forecast yesterday panned out. Due to persistent ridging, highs
are again expected to be 5 degrees warmer than the previous day.
Grand Ensemble and European ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS
continue to run a few degrees cooler than NBM and deterministic
models, especially over the central and northern parts of the CWA.
Today's highs will be around 10 degrees above average for early
March, featuring mid to upper 70s for most of the area, lower to mid
70s in cooler spots, and upper 60s to lower 70s in higher
elevations, with lower to mid 80s in the Big Bend into Rio Grande
basins once again.
Tonight, lows at least 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night are
forecast as increasing high level clouds and southerly winds
maintain boundary layer mixing over night and limit radiational
cooling. Unlike last night, high-resolution deterministic models do
not indicate cooler temperatures along river valleys and drainage
basins due to increased gusty winds over the area. Overall this
results in lows 10 to 15 degrees above average, ranging from the mid
to upper 50s southeast of a northern Presidio County to Upper Trans
Pecos to northwest Permian Basin county line with exception to 40s
for the Lower Trans Pecos and Guadalupes into surrounding foothills
and basins of Culberson County, and mid to upper 40s northwest of
this line. Gustier winds above 25 mph in higher elevations of SE NM
plains and W TX are forecast as well later tonight, keeping lows as
much as 15 to 20 degrees above average. Still warmer temperatures
than Saturday are anticipated for Sunday as southerly winds veer
more to southwesterly and increase in speed with the approaching
upper air disturbance from the west and an associated surface
Pacific cold front moving in from the northwest, as per WPC surface
analysis.
Grids and forecast soundings show mostly clear skies and dry
adiabatic lapse rates throughout the lower to mid troposphere,
respectively. Winds in Guadalupe Pass are also on the low end when
consulting forecasts of sustained wind speeds. NBM shows sustained
winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph and becoming gusty 20 to 30 mph, 30
to 40 mph higher elevations by afternoon Sunday. On days with
efficient boundary layer mixing, NBM tends to under perform for
speeds and gusts. Given predicted mostly clear sky cover, near dry
adiabatic lapse rates, and forecasts with higher sustained winds in
40 to 50 mph range and gusts 50 to 60 mph at GDP - as also indicated
from high ensemble probabilities of gusts at least 60 mph in
northern Guadalupes - applied 1:1 CONSMOS NBM 90Pct blend for wind
speeds and gusts areawide and increased speeds and gusts even more
in Guadalupes in order to get sustained winds in higher elevations
and surrounding foothills into 30 to 40 mph range and wind gusts
into 50 to 60 mph range in Guadalupes from 15Z Sunday through 00Z
Monday. This gets us into hazardous wind criteria. Subsequently, a
High Wind Watch has been issued for Sunday morning through evening
for the Guadalupes, and we are considering wind advisories for
surrounding foothills into SE NM plains around this same time
period. Along with high winds, there is a 50%-70% of blowing dust in
higher elevations and surrounding foothills for Sunday afternoon
through evening, with a 20%-30% chance of blowing dust into the
Permian Basin as well.
Higher-resolution deterministic models and ensemble models are again
running a few degrees cooler than deterministic models and NBM, but
given increased downsloping component to near surface winds, went
with NBM for highs Sunday. Highs 10 to 12 degrees above average are
forecast Sunday, aside from 5 to 7 degrees above average in higher
elevations and northern Lea County, and 15 to 20 degrees from Big
Bend into Terrell County. This translates to upper 70s to lower 80s
southern and eastern Permian Basin, lower to mid 80s Rio Grande
basins, mid to upper 70s SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos and
northwest Permian Basin, and mid to upper 60s higher elevations of
Guadalupes and Davis Mountains as well as northern Lea County. There
is at least a 50% chance of highs into the upper 80s for the Big
Bend on Sunday. 10%-15% PoPs were indicated for northeast Permian
Basin Sunday afternoon on southern end of greater lift to the north
in earlier runs, but with drier air in place, lowered PoPs below 15%
as we are not expecting any widespread rain showers nor clouds at
this time. Accompanying increased southwesterly shifting to westerly
downsloping winds will be drier air, with dew point temperatures in
the 30s and 40s across central and eastern portions of the CWA
falling into the 20s and 30s for all but Terrell County into
southeast Permian Basin with passage of the Pacific cold front.
Following a lull in winds in between storm systems late Sunday
evening, another high wind event and uptick in fire weather risk are
expected with even stronger wind gusts and the drier and windier
conditions interacting with increasingly dry fuels. More on this in
the long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
The start of next week will have a brief lull in the active weather.
Between our weather system on Sunday and our next weather system
nosing into the region during Monday afternoon, upper-level ridging
pushes temperatures well above normal across the region.
Temperatures start mild in the 40s and low 50s before pushing well
into the 70s and 80s across the region with the Big Bend soaring
into the 90s by the afternoon. Wind speeds gradually increase
through the afternoon as a strong westerly jet streak begins to
extend over the area with the next system. High winds may briefly
materialize over the Guadalupe Mountains late in the afternoon and
evening before weakening overnight. As we move into Monday night and
Tuesday morning, lee cyclogenesis commences over southeastern
Colorado and western Kansas. A dryline will extended south of this
developing low pressure, intersecting with portions of the eastern
Permian Basin. This offers up a low (10-30%) chance of showers just
east of the dryline should anything be able to develop. This
opportunity is short-lived as the dryline continues to march east by
sunrise as the low pressure system begins to eject eastward across
the Great Plains. What remains on Tuesday is a warm, very dry, and
very windy day for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A 50-70 kt
700 mb jet streak rounds the base of our weather system moving off
to the east. The combination of these strong mid-level winds with
clear skies and extremely dry conditions result in very efficient
downward momentum transfer. There is medium to high (50-80%)
confidence in 50+ mph wind gusts across the bulk of the region by
Tuesday afternoon. Widespread wind products can be expected in the
coming forecasts. With no rain in recent memory, blowing dust is a
likelihood with this caliber of winds as well. As if that wasn't
enough, dangerous fire weather across a large portion of the
Southern Great Plains further adds hazards to this potent weather
system. More on this in the Fire Weather Discussion below.
Wednesday should offer reprieve from the earth, wind, and fire as a
cold front and surface high pressure slide through the region. While
I say cold front, temperatures are still expected to reach near to
above normal in the 60s and 70s for the bulk of the area.
Temperatures climb a few degrees higher on Thursday as our next
weather system approaches the region. Strong west winds are once
again anticipated for portions of the area late Thursday into Friday
as the weather system moves overhead. Temperatures remain warm, but
fall slightly on Friday with the decreasing heights under the
passing upper-level low pressure system before warming up a touch
again on Saturday as a "cold front" and surface high pressure filter
into the area once again.
Overall, this is a progressive pattern with very warm and dry
weather with periods of windy and dusty weather conditions.
-Chehak
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will veer
to the southwest overnight, and to the west by the end of the
forecast period, increasing and becoming gusty. Plenty of high
cloud is expected overnight, but skies will scatter out by the end
of the forecast period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2025
An active period of fire weather begins on Sunday and lasts into at
least Tuesday. With no rain in recent weeks and continued dry
weather, fuels have begun to reach critically dry levels with ERCs
climbing towards the 75th and 90th percentiles. The dry conditions
are expected to continue for the region into next week with periods
of elevated winds, combining to cause fire weather concerns. Our
first weather system impacts the region on Sunday. The strongest
winds are to be expected across the Guadalupe Mountains and Upper
Trans Pecos with continued low teens and single digit relative
humidity during the afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather. A
secondary corridor of critical fire weather is anticipated to form
immediately behind the advancing dryline across the Permian Basin
and Western Low Rolling Plains. A low-level thermal ridge is
forecast to develop and there is increasing confidence (>50%) that a
corridor of single digit relative humidities and locally stronger
wind speeds will develop. Fire Weather products are likely needed by
next forecast, though confidence in the eastern extent of the
critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain.
Little overnight recovery is to be expected on Monday within the
post-frontal environment. Another afternoon of low teens and single
digit relative humidities further dry the fire environment. Latest
forecast guidance has begun to trend faster with our second weather
system expected on Tuesday. In this event, elevated wind speeds
could overspread the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and Upper
Trans Pecos near peak heating. A window of critical fire weather
would materialize in this scenario. Very strong westerly winds
continue to overspread the region Monday night and Tuesday, offering
little overnight recovery. Widespread low teens and single digit
relative humidities, combine with the drying fuels, and the strong
westerly winds causing critical to extremely critical fire weather
across the area. Tuesday remains the day of greatest concern for
widespread fire weather across the Southern Great Plains.
-Chehak
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 78 54 76 46 / 0 0 10 0
Carlsbad 75 46 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 81 56 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 81 56 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 71 45 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 75 47 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 76 46 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 78 54 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 77 54 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 78 50 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44The office that day
Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 12:41 AM MST | High Wind Watch | MAF | Eddy | 11 hr |
| Mar 1, 11:23 AM MST | Wind Advisory | MAF | Lea | 30 hr |
| Mar 1, 1:47 PM MST | Fire Weather Watch | MAF | Eddy, Lea | 11 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Texas, 2025High Wind Warnings in New Mexico, 2025Every high wind warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.