Flash Flood Warning 93, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

038 
WGUS74 KMAF 180112
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
712 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

NMC025-180315-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0093.000000T0000Z-250818T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
712 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY...

At 712 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 
and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 
to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. Jal mesonet has measured
         nearly 2 inches of rainfall within the last hour.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Southeastern Lea County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Monument Draw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 10354 3237 10352 3239 10318 3209 10324

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Chehak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- A low to medium (15-50%) chance of thunderstorms during the
  afternoon and evening on Sunday and Monday, with highest chance
  of rain over the Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills (40-70%).

- Near normal temperatures early next week, becoming slightly
  below normal by the middle and end of the week.

- There is a daily low to medium (20-65%) chance of thunderstorms
  for much of the area, with the highest chances over western
  portions of the area early in the week, shifting eastward later
  in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this afternoon
shows the upper ridge centered roughly over the ArklaTex, and
extending southwest beyond the Rio Grande Valley.  Area radars show
convection already developing over the Davis Mountains, and CAMs
suggest this may develop a little farther east than it did 24 hours
ago.

This activity will gradually diminish this evening.  A 25 kt LLJ and
abundant mid/high cloud will retard radiational cooling, yielding
another night of lows an uncomfortable ~ 5-7 F above normal, if not
more.

Monday, the ridge begins developing west toward the Four Corners.
Thicknesses make increase ever so slightly, adding maybe a degree to
today's highs, and topping out ~ 4-6 F above normal.  CAMs suggest
convective chances/coverage will be very similar to this afternoon's.

Monday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight, with near-
identical overnight lows.  CAMs diminish convection, but keep it
going a little longer overnight, especially northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The upper-level ridge is forecast to redevelop to our west by
Tuesday. Simultaneously, a broad trough over the Upper Midwest
begins to dig and pushes a cold front into the area by midweek. This
will allow for shower and thunderstorm chances to increase (20-50%)
further east from the higher terrain. Afternoon highs behind the
front drop slightly below normal during the latter half of the week.
Overnight lows also take a hit where temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s are expected for much of the area. For reference, the
normal high/low temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) this time of
year at Midland International Air and Space Port is 95/72. There is
a low to medium (20-65%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day throughout the extended. As the upper-level ridge to our west
builds, chances of showers and thunderstorms gradually decrease from
west to east. By the Friday/Saturday timeframe, these chances (10-
40%) decrease with much of the coverage becoming confined to the
Stockton Plateau/Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos/Permian Basin regions.
Though the Davis Mountains still could see some activity as well.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except perhaps in areas
of direct convection, in light/variable return flow. Convection
will be possible everywhere except KMAF for the next couple of
hours. A widespread cu field is anticipated Monday, but convective
chances are too far out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  99  73  97 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                 72  96  72  96 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                   75 101  75  99 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            74  98  73  97 /  10  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           68  86  68  87 /  20  40  30  40
Hobbs                    70  95  70  95 /  30  40  20  30
Marfa                    62  88  62  87 /  20  50  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  74  96 /  20  20  20  30
Odessa                   75  96  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
Wink                     73  97  72  97 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99