Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

939 
WGUS74 KMAF 242117
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
317 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

NMC015-242245-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-250724T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Eddy NM-
317 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...

At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 
inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...Whites 
City and Carlsbad Caverns National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 10430 3211 10437 3208 10456 3213 10458
      3220 10453 3222 10438

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

94

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms will develop across much of the region
  again this afternoon and evening. The stronger storms that
  develop will be capable of producing brief strong and gusty
  winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead
  to very localized flooding.

- Temperatures remain at or above normal through the extended
  period. Rain chances will remain low (10-30%) and mainly stay
  confined to higher terrain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Upper-level ridging begins to build back over our region today.
However, before the ridge becomes our dominant weather maker, a few
more disturbances within the southwesterly flow aloft will have the
opportunity to roll in along its western edge. This will provide
us with slight rain chances this afternoon. Given limited upper-
level support, any showers/storms that develop will be mainly be
isolated and driven by daytime heating. Our best (20-30%) odds for
rainfall this afternoon will lie over and near the Davis Mountains,
while the rest of the area will have at least a 10% chance. By
this evening, low (10-20%) rain chances shift toward the northern
Permian Basin. Otherwise, highs this afternoon heat into the upper
80s in the mountains, 90s for most, while those near and along
the Pecos and the Rio Grande, even a few spots in the eastern
Permian Basin, top out in the low 100s. Tonight, temperatures
remain mild, dipping into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Friday, upper-ridging continues to build over our area, nudging
up our temperatures and lowering our rain chances. Low (10-30%)
rain chances can be found over the higher terrain west of the
Pecos River Friday afternoon, highest chances near the Davis
Mountains. Elsewhere looks to remain dry. Highs beyond the century
mark are forecast to expand in coverage to include more portions
of the eastern Permian Basin, as well as much of the Trans Pecos.
The hottest conditions are expected near and along the Rio Grande,
where highs are forecast to max out between 102-108 degrees in a
few locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Upper-level ridging will generally remain dominant across our
forecast area Friday night into Saturday. There will be enough
lingering moisture to support a continued low (10-20 percent)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend, Marfa
Plateau, Davis Mountains, and portions of the Upper Trans Pecos
region Friday evening, but storms should otherwise mostly
dissipate after sunset. Increased subsidence and slightly lower
precipitable water values underneath the building ridge should
allow for dry conditions across the majority of the forecast area
on Saturday, although isolated afternoon/early evening storms will
still be possible in the vicinity of the mountains. Hot
temperatures will continue underneath the ridge on Saturday, with
highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over much of
the region, except for readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s in
the mountains and as hot as 103-108 degrees along the Rio Grande.
A weak inverted trough axis embedded along the southwestern
periphery of the upper level ridge may translate W-NW into
southern portions of our forecast area during the day Sunday.
Medium range model solutions do show an increase in boundary
layer moisture along this feature with precipitable water values
rising to at least between 1.25"-1.5" over much of our region.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop Sunday afternoon along the Big Bend, Trans Pecos, Marfa
Plateau, and Guadalupe/Davis Mountain areas where POPs currently
range between 20-40 percent. We will monitor trends to determine
if these POPs will need to be expanded to include southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin in later forecasts. Highs on Sunday
may be just a touch cooler in the lower to mid 90s over much of
the area, except for upper 80s in the mountains and up to 103
degrees along the Rio Grande.

The subtropical ridge is forecast to build/expand over much of the
central and southern CONUS during the early to middle part of next
week. Deep layer moisture mainly looks to become confined to
western portions of our forecast area Monday-Wednesday, where we
will maintain a mention of isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Dry conditions should
remain prevalent across eastern portions of our area in closer
proximity to the upper level ridge. Highs mostly remain in the
90s each day, with a few locations potentially reaching near or
just above the century mark Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning lows
will continue to range in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

VFR continues at all terminals. TEMPOs included for all but MAF
where highest confidence of at least TS possible this
afternoon/evening. Radar trends will guide necessity for
amendments. Winds remain light(~10kt or less) outside of any
convection and shift southeasterly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 100  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   74 101  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  99  73  97 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  90  70  91 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    68  96  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    64  89  63  91 /  10  30   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   74  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     72  99  72  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93