Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

172 
WGUS74 KMAF 020620
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

TXC109-243-389-020800-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-250702T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Culberson TX-Jeff Davis TX-Reeves TX-
120 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 /1220 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ 
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CULBERSON, CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS 
AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES...

At 120 AM CDT /1220 AM MDT/, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3.5 
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kent, Fort Davis, Balmorhea, Balmorhea State Park, McDonald 
  Observatory, Balmorhea Lake, Davis Mountains State Park, Saragosa, 
  Bloys Camp, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp, Black Mountain, Toyahvale, 
  Star Mountain and Indian Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 10431 3126 10414 3127 10369 3101 10362
      3078 10362 3052 10404 3057 10435

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DeBerry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
804 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 743 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Excellent chances of rain are expected through Thursday, then
  decreasing into next week, and centered on the Davis Mountains.

- Temperatures will gradually warm to near-normal Saturday, then
  cool slightly Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The Flash Flood Watch has been allowed to expire across the
region. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms are still prevalent
across the forecast area, thanks to being in a very moist
environment. Intermediate light to moderate rain showers are
expected throughout this evening into early tomorrow morning with
a few prolonged breaks late this evening and overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A weak front combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry have
brought a shield of showers with isolated thunderstorms to the
region that will continue through much of the short term forecast.
With that in mind, the current Flash Flood Watch that encompasses
much of the CWA will hold for now and will likely be extended for
certain zones this evening. Many spots will see, through light to
moderate rainfall, another quarter to half inch or more of
additional rain through tonight. A few heavier showers or
thunderstorms may bring heavy rain leading to some spots seeing
closer to an inch or more.

The abundant moisture and the nearby upper level trough hold on in
the area for Wednesday where another day of light to moderate
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible.
Temperatures will be well moderated by clouds and rain nearly
areawide with the only warm spots along the Rio Grande and in Big
Bend.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

After a cooler and wetter period, an upper level ridge returns,
leading to warmer, and eventually drier conditions for most areas.
Highs on Thursday warm a few degrees over the previous day,
primarily reaching into the 80s, with 70s holding steady over the
mountains. Highs on the 4th of July top out in the 90s over the
Permian Basin and portions of southeast New Mexico, while 80s hang
around elsewhere. By Saturday, 90s become more common across the
region as ridging builds over northwestern Mexico. The ridge drifts
slightly west and northwestward early next week, allowing highs to
hover closer to normal, if not a touch below.

A shortwave trough will bring us our best shot at rainfall Thursday
afternoon. PoPs areawide range anywhere between 50-80%. The highest
rain chances lie near and over the Davis Mountains. Rain chances on
the 4th of July begin to drop off for many. Though, the mountains
and Big Bend region may still see scattered showers and
thunderstorms (40-60%). With any luck, looks like the weather
overall will be quite nice for enjoying some grilling and fireworks!
Through the weekend, moist upslope flow may result in additional
shower/storm activity in the vicinity of the higher elevations.
Otherwise, drier conditions await most early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR to MVFR ceilings will be in place this evening with scattered
to numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA translating across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico. Ceilings and visibility could
become briefly lowered to MVFR to IFR thresholds in the heavier
rain showers and thunderstorms that develop. Ceilings are expected
to lower to IFR to low-end MVFR thresholds across much of the
region overnight into Wednesday morning with a continued potential
for at least MVFR reductions in visibility. Rain chances will
continue overnight, though the overall coverage may trend a bit
lower through the overnight hours. Ceilings gradually improve
late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, but still
remaining MVFR for most of the region. Additional scattered to
numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected develop again on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  80  69  85 /  50  60  50  60
Carlsbad                 66  76  67  83 /  80  70  60  50
Dryden                   70  83  71  85 /  60  60  50  60
Fort Stockton            67  81  68  84 /  50  70  50  80
Guadalupe Pass           61  72  63  78 /  70  60  50  50
Hobbs                    65  76  66  82 /  80  70  60  50
Marfa                    62  75  63  78 /  60  80  70  90
Midland Intl Airport     69  80  70  85 /  60  60  60  50
Odessa                   68  78  69  84 /  50  60  60  50
Wink                     68  80  69  85 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...11