Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

683 
WGUS74 KMAF 220114
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
814 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

TXC243-220230-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-250622T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
814 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Buffalo Trail Scout Camp.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Canyon Creek, Madera Canyon, Cherry Creek, Big Aguja Canyon and 
  Toyah Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 10408 3091 10406 3096 10388 3089 10377
      3073 10395

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

R Hluchan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

- Mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures with a low (10-30%)
  chance of thunderstorms near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
  this afternoon.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures with a medium
  to high (30-80%) chance of rain for most locations west of the
  Pecos River on Sunday. These rain chances continue through early
  next week before decreasing by the latter half of the week (20-50%).

- Breezy conditions continue through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

The mid-level ridge that has dominated our weather recently
continues to slowly weaken and move off to our east. This change is
in response to the developing trough across the Pacific Northwest.
This has promoted continued lee troughing across the great plains
resulting in a strong southeast wind. Near-advisory-level wind
speeds can be expected through Sunday. Wind Advisories are in
effect for the plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas as a
result. Temperatures continue to be near normal this afternoon as
90s and lower 100s remain commonplace. Plentiful sunshine can be
expected for many. A low (10-30%) chance of afternoon
thunderstorms remains in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountain regions. Heading into Sunday morning, temperatures start
in the upper 60s and lower 70s. These temperatures are a touch
above normal and a result of the continued strong winds. The
aforementioned trough continues to deepen as it proceeds into the
northern Rocky Mountains by Sunday afternoon. This helps to reduce
temperatures a few degrees across the region. Slightly below
normal temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s should be a
welcomed sight for many. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm
chances increase as the trough approaches. A medium to high
(30-80%) chance of thunderstorms is to be expected for most areas
west of the Pecos River, especially nearest the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. Thunderstorm activity gradually dissipates
after sunset with another mild morning, similar to Sunday, to
start the work week on Monday.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Troughing persists to the west while ridging continues over the
eastern CONUS. Here in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, high
pressure over the southeastern CONUS will maintain
southeasterly/southerly winds at the surface. This will allow for
moisture to continue filtering into our area. For locations roughly
west of the Pecos River, terrain effects coupled with pulses in the
southwesterly flow aloft allow for daily thunderstorm chances
through the Long Term Period. The best rain chances will be early in
the week (60-80%) for our far western counties in particular. By
Wednesday, thunderstorm chances continue, but the better chances
start shifting farther west outside of our area. Nevertheless,
locations west of the Pecos maintain 20-50% probabilities of seeing
beneficial rainfall through the end of the week, with the best
chances gradually becoming more concentrated in the higher terrain
(especially the Davis Mountains). Many of these locations will
likely see anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inch of rain by the time all is
said and done (> 70% chance). However, locally higher amounts can be
expected, and we will be keeping a close eye on the potential for
heavy rainfall and flooding. Meanwhile, locations roughly east of
the Pecos (particularly the Permian Basin of West Texas and Lower
Trans-Pecos) will be farther removed from the best forcing. As a
result, despite plentiful moisture, these locations will largely
miss out on the beneficial rains outside of a stray storm or two.

Besides the thunderstorm chances, breezy conditions look to continue
through early next week as we remain sandwiched between high
pressure to the east and the lee cyclone to the northwest.
Otherwise, temperatures slowly trend upwards into next weekend but
remain generally seasonable (highs in the upper 80s and 90s for
most, lows in the upper 60s and low 70s).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of this evening
as thunderstorms dissipate. Elevated southeasterly winds continue
with gusts to 25 to 35 kts expected. An MVFR ceiling cloud deck
will build in from the southeast tonight. This may reach MAF, but
guidance is uncertain at this time and clouds may stay east.
Winds remain relatively unchanged by afternoon. More widespread
thunderstorms are expected by mid to late afternoon with
potential impacts to CNM and PEQ, but confidence in timing is too
low for inclusion at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  91  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  94  71  86 /  10  50  60  70
Dryden                   72  92  74  93 /   0  20  10  20
Fort Stockton            70  91  71  87 /   0  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           69  86  64  79 /  20  60  70  70
Hobbs                    68  90  68  85 /   0  20  30  40
Marfa                    65  84  64  79 /  20  70  70  80
Midland Intl Airport     72  90  73  89 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   71  89  72  88 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     71  92  71  89 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025

NMZ028-212300-
Eddy County Plains NM-
408 PM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 408 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carlsbad, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Avalon, Carlsbad North, Lake Avalon, Otis, Cavern
City Air Terminal, and Living Desert State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 10422 3231 10438 3253 10424 3232 10403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 219DEG 7KT 3231 10425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

91

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 WSW Otis              32.33N 104.25W
06/21/2025  M76 MPH          Eddy               NM   ASOS

            ASOS station KCNM Carlsbad.

&&