Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

- Thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, especially along
  and south of I-10. Some storms may become severe. Large hail
  and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Thunderstorm chances continue late this week and into the
  weekend. Highest chances will be for the mountains (20-50%).

- Warming trend commences this weekend as humidity persists.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

The short term continues to be active with severe thunderstorms in
the forecast. Water Vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough
located over the the coast of Baja California, putting southeast New
Mexico and west Texas under quasi-zonal flow. This weak pattern
aloft means that any storms that develop this afternoon should
primarily be due to mesoscale forcing as large scale ascent is
lacking. Current surface analysis depicts a cold front draped along
the Trans Pecos region and it is expected to retreat back north as a
warm front this afternoon. Simultaneously, a dryline is expected to
set up just to the east of the Guadalupe Mountains and extend
southward through the Trans Pecos and Big Bend this afternoon.
Easterly upslope flow moving up against the dryline should force air
upwards in the moist sector this afternoon, allowing for the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance shows
storms forming along the Davis Mountains around mid-afternoon as
discrete cells before becoming more of a MCS by early evening as
shortwave impulses ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough
move overhead along with an increased LLJ. Very large hail is the
primary hazard expected with these storms during the afternoon,
especially south of I-10. Strong winds become the main hazard during
the early evening hours with large inverted-V soundings. Though
tornadoes are unlikely, we can not rule out the possibility of an
isolated tornado during the afternoon. The LLJ will be short lived
tonight and storms should move east of the area after midnight.
Cloudy skies and plentiful boundary layer moisture will allow
tonight's lows to stay around normal for most despite a cold front
moving through the area.

Wednesday looks to be another active day for severe weather as
southerly return flow and shortwave impulses ahead of the
aforementioned trough return. The greatest instability and shear will
be confined to the southern half of the forecast area, which is
consistent with where models show the bulk of the activity. High
temperatures are forecast to be 3-5 degrees cooler than today behind
the cold front. Storms should quickly taper off by early evening.
Lack of radiational cooling due to cloud cover and abundant boundary
layer moisture allows for Wednesday night's lows to be a few degrees
warmer than tonight's.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Our unsettled weather pattern continues into the Long Term Period.
Flow aloft becomes more northwesterly towards the end of the week as
ridging builds to the west. Pulses within the upper-level flow,
coupled with the dryline set up in southeast New Mexico (which will
become more diffuse, especially by Friday), continued advection of
moisture into the region, and upslope flow/terrain influences allow
for additional thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday. The best
forcing (and therefore higher chances - 30-50%) will be in the Davis
Mountains, while the rest of the area will have a 15-40% chance of
seeing isolated to scattered rain and storms (with lower chances
Friday relative to Thursday). Once again, a few storms may become
severe due to MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg and modest 0-6km shear
(25-35 kts), posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat.

Some additional storms may attempt to develop over the weekend
(mainly in/around the terrain, where 20-50% chances exist), but by
then ridging begins to build back towards the region. As a result, a
warming trend develops such that most of the area sees highs return
to the 90s (and low 100s along the Rio Grande). Winds remain
southeasterly, meaning dewpoints in the 50s and 60s stick around
through the weekend as well. By early next week, ensembles indicate
another shortwave trough will approach, kick the ridge further to
the east, and bring some more storm chances to the region as the
dryline once again begins to sharpen up. Stay tuned for updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon, but have left out of most sites due to
uncertainty. However, have included PROB30 for FST as Fort Stockton
has the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. Easterly to southeasterly winds are
forecast throughout most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  86  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
Carlsbad                 61  89  63  90 /  30  20  10  20
Dryden                   65  87  69  89 /  60  30  20  10
Fort Stockton            63  87  67  92 /  60  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           58  83  63  84 /  20  20  10  20
Hobbs                    58  84  61  85 /  50  20  10  20
Marfa                    56  84  58  87 /  40  40  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     63  85  68  88 /  40  30  10  10
Odessa                   62  84  67  87 /  40  30  10  10
Wink                     63  89  67  91 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55