Dust Storm Warning 9, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

- High Wind hazards and a Red Flag Warning are in effect areawide
  today as a storm system brings winds and heightened fire
  weather concerns. Critical fire weather conditions and reduced
  visibility due to blowing dust remain the main impacts through
  this evening.

- A more potent system is set to arrive Friday, once again
  bringing strong to very strong winds and critical to extreme
  fire weather concerns to the area. Temperatures take a slight
  dip behind the cold front.

- A warming trend begins heading into next week before another
  system makes its way in around Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough over SoCal/Baja del
Norte, resulting in progressive southwest flow aloft over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico and portending a very windy day for the
region.

According to the latest NAM, a mountain wave signature is already
developing over the Guadalupes, although this is not yet evident in
observations. 700mb height gradients are still forecast to
tighten up to 60m/200nm or better today, and the track of the
trough suggests current warnings/advisories are generally on
track, accompanied by a heaping helping of BLDU. RFTIs are already
on the increase, suggesting a critical fire wx day area-wide. See
Fire Wx Discussion below for further details. Unfortunately, a
Pac front will accompany the trough, shaving 6-7 F off yesterday's
highs and bringing them down closer to normal.

Tonight, in the wake of the exiting trough, winds will decouple
after sundown, but remain somewhat elevated.  This will combine with
increasing high clouds after midnight to keep overnight lows very
similar to this morning's...5-6 F above normal.

Thursday morning, a secondary trough is forecast to make landfall on
the west coast. Leeside surface troughing on the Front Range will
begin increasing southwest winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares,
with high winds possibly developing during the afternoon, and
we've issued a watch for that. Downslope warming will augment
increasing thicknesses to rebound highs to near where they ended
up yesterday...~ 9-10 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

An upper-level ridge quickly moves off to our east as another storm
system becomes negatively tilted overnight Thursday. All the while,
a surface low develops off the lee of the Rockies in the Central
Great Plains, then rapidly intensifies. The result will be a windbag
containing strong to very strong winds, blowing dust, and critical
to extreme fire weather conditions. NBM90 seems to reflect similar
wind speeds to MOS guidance fairly well; therefore, expect winds
sustained over 30 kts for much of the area, with gusts over 40 kts
by Friday afternoon.

Highs drop a bit behind the front Friday, topping out in the 60s for
most, while the 70s and 80s hang around in the Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos. Highs in the 50s and 60s spread in coverage on
Saturday. By Sunday, the trough progresses eastward and upper
ridging returns, setting the stage for a warming trend that lasts
through Tuesday. However, another trough looks to be on the horizon
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR in place at all terminals, but VIS drops due to BLDU may be
seen through the afternoon as winds increase. BLDU and lower VIS
not currently included due to low confidence in timing, but
amendments likely based on trends in dust. Strong
westerly/southwesterly winds continue for the afternoon and slowly
decrease late this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today across the entire region.
Strong winds associated with a storm system combined with ERC values
well into the 90th percentile will provide favorable conditions for
rapid wildfire growth and spread. MinRH values will range from the
single digits to the teens this afternoon. The most critical conditions
will be in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River and adjacent
plains

Thursday will see a brief lull in winds, though the Guadalupe Mountains
may still see near critical to low end critical red flag conditions. A
more potent system arrives Friday, bringing very windy conditions to the
entire area. Despite cooler temperatures behind the cold front, very dry
fuels and strong winds mean more critical fire weather conditions are
expected, even worse than what will be seen today. Conditions improve
Saturday, though will remain elevated before light winds arrive
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  45  76  42 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   82  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  45  68  37 /   0   0   0  30
Hobbs                    72  41  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    66  40  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     74  46  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     74  42  82  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Reeves County Plains.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93