Dust Storm Warning 13, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1249 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

- A High Wind Warning is in effect today and tonight for
  Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas along and north of
  I-10. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the rest of West Texas.
  Widespread blowing dust is likely.

- A Red flag Warning is in effect today and this evening for West
  Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Don't burn, and field-strip
  your cigarettes!

- A warming trend is in store late this weekend through Tuesday,
  with elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected
  through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts the much-advertised upper-level
system making its way into New Mexico. Over the next couple of hours
as the system makes its way over the region, winds will increase
substantially, starting in western potions of our area (Southeast
New Mexico, the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains and surrounding
plains). In fact, winds in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains were
already gusting to near-high wind criteria at the time of this
writing.

By sunrise or a little after, winds across the Permian Basin,
Southeast New Mexico, Davis Mountains, and Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains will achieve High Wind criteria. Gusts up to 65 mph should
be expected for many of these locations, with the strongest gusts
(75+ mph) being confined to the mountains. Meanwhile, winds further
south, while not as extreme, will still be strong and gusty. As a
result, a Wind Advisory is maintained for these locations for gusts
up to 55 mph. Blowing dust is to be expected areawide, and therefore
a Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued. Furthermore, continued very
dry conditions will combine with these winds to encourage critical
to extreme fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is therefore
in effect for the whole region. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for more details.

The system will bring with it a weak cold front that will knock
highs Friday and Saturday into the 60s for most, with some 50s in
the higher elevations. Lows Friday night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Enough low-level moisture may be in place Saturday morning to allow
for a few sprinkles/light showers in the mountains and over
Southeast New Mexico. However, chances are fairly low (20-40%), and
any showers that do form would be pretty isolated and weak (and
therefore rainfall totals would be negligible).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Sunday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under
dry, northwest flow aloft as upper-level ridging builds in from the
west.  As such, thicknesses will be on the increase, with
temperatures recovering from Sunday's nadir.  The ridge will move
through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday, courtesy of the
next trough making landfall on the west coast, after which flow
aloft will transition to progressive southwesterly.

High winds look to redevelop over the mountains beginning late
Tuesday night as the trough approaches, and these could last through
Wednesday.  Thicknesses will continue increasing through Tuesday
afternoon, augmented by downslope warming.  Temperatures Tuesday
afternoon will be perhaps the warmest this forecast as highs plateau
a pleasant ~ 10-15 F above normal.  Unfortunately, this will likely
result in critical fire weather conditions for most of the region.
See fire wx discussion below for more details.

Unfortunately, a cold front will drop in Tuesday night/Wednesday
behind the trough, taking temperatures below normal most locations
Wednesday/Thursday.  Temperatures recover to above-normal Friday.
Unfortunately, the long-term forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Strong westerly winds continue through this afternoon into the
early evening hours. BLDU (MVFR and IFR prevailing visibilities)
will also continue at all terminals with the potential of brief
LIFR visibilities periods, especially at CNM, HOB, and INK this
afternoon. Brief periods of IFR to near IFR visibilities are
expected elsewhere. By 02Z, BLDU should subside with slightly
decreased westerly winds. VFR CIGs will prevail through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper trough tilting negatively
and approaching the Four Corners.  Observations show winds already
increasing out west...a testament to what's in store later today,
considering it's only 06Z.  RFTIs at Sierra Blanca are already up to
6, w/RH west of the Pecos going critical.  The only silver lining to
today will be a LLTR displaced well to the east, suggesting the most
critical fire wx there.  Even so, conditions couldn't be much more
critical here, w/critical RH everywhere but the mountains, and
single-digit RH over the Permian Basin, Western Low Rolling Plains,
and Big Bend Area.  20-ft winds will be above criteria everywhere
for at least part of the day, but strongest north of I-10.  ERCs run
from the 50th percentile Guadalupes to the 97th or better from the
central Permian Basin to the lower Trans Pecos.  All of this will
result in RTFIs ranging from 4 over the higher terrain out west to 7
in the east, w/isolated 8 in the Western Low Rolling Plains.  This
will create an unusual scenario where the most critical fire wx
looks to be in the northeast.  Then again, this is closest to the
intersection of 500mb winds w/the windward side of the LLTR.  The FA
continues to lack dense fuel beds, but if they're to be found, it
would be over the Western Low Rolling Plains.  Thus, the eastern
Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains, under extreme RFTI, look
to be the most problematic areas to watch today.

Upper-level ridging will build into/through the region over the
weekend, but 20-ft winds will not favor appreciable moisture
recovery of any degree, resulting in widespread critical RH every
day.  This will also keep ERCs and fire danger high.  Thus, critical
fire weather will be almost entirely dependent on where 20-ft winds
increase each afternoon.  This will most likely be evaluated on a
day-to-day basis, as conditions are cumulative.  Elevated fire will
be likely each day at a minimum.  However, the biggest day of
concern after today will be Tuesday, when the next trough arrives.
Increased 20-ft winds accompanying this feature, along w/single-digit
RH, will once again result in extreme RFTI for most of the FA.  Stay
tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  43  65  38 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 61  39  61  37 /   0  10  30   0
Dryden                   80  47  71  45 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            71  44  64  42 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           51  34  51  33 /  10  20  40   0
Hobbs                    63  34  59  35 /   0   0  20   0
Marfa                    63  37  56  32 /   0   0  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  42  63  39 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   66  42  62  40 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     66  40  64  37 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday for Davis
     Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Terrell.

NM...High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
945 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SE Hobbs              32.72N 103.13W
03/14/2025                   Lea                NM   Public

            Tree fell over and damaged a fence, along
            with damaging a side of a house.

&&

KL

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1014 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 NNE Hobbs             32.79N 103.15W
03/14/2025                   Lea                NM   Public

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd dmg report
            from 2 SE Hobbs. Tree fell over and damaged
            a fence, along with damaging a side of a
            house.

&&

KL