Severe Thunderstorm Warning 421, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

-Severe thunderstorm threat increases into the afternoon/evening
hours today

-Best threat for seeing severe weather over the NW half/third of the
state.

-Damaging winds...large hail...and a few tornadoes possible

-Threat for flooding continues...with additional heavy rain
expected...especially in some of the areas that already saw heavy
rain on Mon

-Calmer/drier conditions expected late this week through the
 weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

All quiet conditions ongoing across the Natural State early this Tue
morning...but this will change later this morning and especially by
this afternoon. SFC low pressure is located to the west of AR over
the panhandles of TX/OK...with convection ongoing just ahead of this
SFC low. A weak warm front extended generally ESE into AR/SWRN
TN...with some isolated convection already ongoing across NERN AR
into WRN TN just north of this front.

The warm front will continue lifting slowly north this
morning...potentially near the MO Bootheel by late morning. New
convection looks to fire along this front soon...initiating sometime
over the next several hrs. At this same time...the ongoing convection
near the SFC low to the west will continue to move east toward SW
MO/NW AR through sometime after sunrise. A preceding outflow may
then drop SE ahead of this convection by midday into the early
afternoon hrs...with new convection possibly propagating SE into the
afternoon timeframe. Flow aloft will be nearly zonal...with a cold
front dropping SE by late this afternoon into the evening hrs. This
cold front will bring additional forcing to any outflow boundaries
dropping SE...with more organized convection becoming possible this
afternoon and evening. Eventually...this more organized convection
will then drop south/SE by late tonight into Wed morning.

The threat for some organized strong to SVR convection will increase
today ahead of the cold front/SFC low as it moves E/SE over time.
Temps ahead of this convection could warm well into the 80s and some
90s...especially if the morning convection outflows hold back a bit
before pushing SE ahead of the front. This will allow for ample CAPE
to develop...with a more limiting factor being low level SHR. Even
so...there will be some pockets of enhanced low level SHR to create
some potential for rotating updrafts in the strongest convection.
Low level winds may back just enough to the SE ahead of the
outflow/front to create an increased risk for a few
tornadoes...mainly across WRN AR into north central AR. The best
threat for seeing organized SVR Wx in this zone...mainly the NWRN
half/third of AR...will be dependent on how soon the influence of
the morning convection moves into the state this morning from the
west. If this activity moves in quicker...and resulting outflows
drop south sooner...this threat may not be as enhanced...or the
threat pushed further south. The tornado threat will also be
dependent on how the SFC winds are oriented ahead of the
activity...with some near-term guidance showing a bit more SWRLY
component...which may decrease the tornado threat. In any case...the
best threat for seeing SVR Wx...including large hail...damaging
winds...and even a few tornadoes...will be across the WRN to NWRN
half/third of the state. However...exact details are still uncertain
on the these threats given the placement/timing of near-term
mesoscale features.

Will state that there will also continue to be a flash flood threat
through early Wed. Some areas expected to see organized convection
this Tue are areas that already saw several inches of rain on Mon.
As a result...and with an additional 1-3 inches or more or rain
possible again today...will continue with the Flood Watch for
flash/river flooding potential.

While the potential for seeing strong to SVR Wx decreases across AR
on Wed...some lingering strong storms could be seen during the
morning hrs across SERN sections. This threat decreases as the cold
front drops SE out of the state Wed afternoon. An upper trough axis
will drop SE by Wed night...with some lingering precip potential
possible into Thu. However...cooler/more stable conditions will
settle into the region by the latter portion of the week...with the
potential for precip becoming low. NW/NRLY flow aloft will then be
seen through the weekend...with drier/calmer conditions expected to
persist. While temps will warm into early next week...lower moisture
levels will keep conditions relatively comfortable...with precip
chances remaining low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Have utilized latest CAM guidance for TSRA forecast at sites.
General trend will be to have coverage develop southeastward
between 00 and 09z. IFR ceilings are expected across the northern
two thirds of the forecast are after 09z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  68  83  62 /  60  80  50  30
Camden AR         91  71  80  63 /  30  50  90  20
Harrison AR       78  65  76  59 /  90  80  40  30
Hot Springs AR    90  69  81  62 /  30  70  60  10
Little Rock   AR  88  72  82  65 /  30  60  60  20
Monticello AR     93  74  83  66 /  30  30  80  30
Mount Ida AR      89  68  81  61 /  30  80  50  10
Mountain Home AR  80  66  79  60 /  90  80  40  30
Newport AR        86  71  83  65 /  70  70  60  40
Pine Bluff AR     91  71  81  64 /  30  50  80  20
Russellville AR   88  69  82  63 /  50  80  30  10
Searcy AR         87  70  84  64 /  60  60  60  30
Stuttgart AR      90  72  81  65 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ004>007-014>016-
024-031>033-039-042>045-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

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