Tornado Warning 26, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe thunderstorm threat remains this afternoon and through
   the evening for much of the forecast area.

 - Much cooler for Memorial Day behind a cold front, but some
   showers and thunderstorms possible.

 - Showers and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and continue through
   the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

A complex pattern has set up/is setting up across the forecast area
this afternoon, complicated by a series of gravity waves rolling
southwestward from western Oklahoma across the southeastern
Panhandle and beyond. These gravity waves are giving impetus to the
eastern flank of a cold front that has moved southward out of the
Panhandle this morning. Said front lies roughly from Muleshoe to
Plainview to Guthrie as of 130 PM with a dryline extending southward
from Muleshoe to Denver City. There has already been initiation of
rather junky convection across the Rolling Plains where the gravity
waves are interacting with some mid level instability, but for now
the cap is holding. Hi-res models suggest surface-based initiation
may occur along the frontal boundary as early 2 to 3 PM while down
the dryline that may not occur until 4 to 5 PM. This southward push
to the cold front may end up limiting the severe potential in the
post-frontal environment, although surface analysis shows some theta-
e advection continuing behind the front into the southeastern
Panhandle. Still, the focus for higher-end severe may end up being
limited to areas along and south of the front and east of the I-
27/US-87 corridor where surface dew point temperatures will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting CAPE values in excess of 3000
J/kg. Overall, the forecast remains on track for now with little
in the way of change needed for tonight.

Monday will see a sharp change in the weather across the forecast
area. The cold front lying across the area this afternoon will end
up surging southward tonight with post-frontal stratus and cooler
northeast winds behind it. The stratus has a very good chance of
hanging on throughout the day, especially across the eastern half of
the forecast area, and NBM high temperatures look a bit too warm
given this scenario. Have adjusted toward the cooler MOS values as a
result. Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility,
especially during the afternoon hours as a mid/upper level trough
moves off the higher terrain of central Colorado and New Mexico.
Instability will be limited in the cooler air mass, but with the
incoming lift, appears sufficient to maintain a chance wording for
PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Extended forecast is still on par for cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances everyday this week. Upper level forcing from
an upper trough axis tracking near the region and a decent amount of
instability will aid in generating a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon through the evening. Severe storms
are possible with the primary hazard being large hail. If a surface
trough over eastern NM strengthens, a dryline could set up over the
region bringing greater chances for severe thunderstorms although,
the possibility of this occurring is low.

The upper trough will get pulled to the east of the region Tuesday
by an upper level cut off low over the upper Midwest. At the same
time an upper ridge axis will build over the intermountain west as
another cut off low develops off the coast of southern California.
Flow aloft will be predominantly zonal through the work week but
should shift northeasterly by the weekend as the first cut off low
slowly moves east before getting absorbed into northerly flow and
the upper ridge continues to build into central CONUS. Abundant low
level moisture and upslope surface flow keeps chances of
precipitation every day this week. Greater chances of precipitation
will be Wednesday and Thursday as embedded shortwave disturbances
are expected to track overhead aiding in upper level ascent.
Predominate easterly flow will keep temperatures cooler through the
week with highs in the 70s to 80s with a gradual warm up this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

TS still in the offing late afternoon into the evening as the
dryline and cold front are expected to be the foci for TS
initiation and development. Given some uncertainties with timing
will keep a PROB30 mention for now. Away from TS VFR conditions
are expected to persist until early morning hours when MVFR
ceilings are expected at all three terminals behind the cold front
after it moves southward through the forecast area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
209 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

TXZ021>044-261915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
209 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a cold
front located across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, mainly
from the Dimmitt area eastward. These thunderstorms will initially
move to the east but should eventually develop into a system that
turns to the southeast through the evening hours. More isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected southward along the
dryline, likely along or just east of the U.S. Highway 385 corridor.
These storms will move to the east as well and may eventually merge
into the storms moving from the northwest.

Some thunderstorms will become severe with all hazards possible,
including wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail up to the size of softballs,
and a tornados. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue each day from Monday through next
weekend. A few storms may be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
415 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Hail             1 NE Matador            34.03N 100.81W
05/25/2025  E1.50 Inch       Motley             TX   CO-OP Observer

&&

CR

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
453 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Hail             1 E Afton               33.76N 100.79W
05/25/2025  E3.25 Inch       Dickens            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball+ (3.25 in.).

&&

CR