Tornado Warning 12, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the
   forecast area with large hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado
   possible.

 - Friday night and Saturday morning hold potential for heavy rain
   and some flooding.

 - Daily chances for storms, some severe, continue through
   Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Threat of severe weather later this afternoon and evening is still
on par. Current satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary
moving southward through the far southern Texas Panhandle with CU
developing along and behind the boundary. Could see some
thunderstorm development with this boundary as it continues south
and intercepts the dryline.

Upper level flow will be from the west the rest of today through
tomorrow afternoon as a ridge builds overhead due to a trough
pushing over the western CONUS. Surface southerly flow will keep
dewpoints in the 50s to 60s for most of the region allowing the
dryline to set up over western South Plains. Low level convergence
ahead of the dryline should aid in thunderstorm initiation over
the South Plains later this afternoon. Current satellite imagery
shows some small CU beginning to develop over portions of the
South Plains along the dryline. Any thunderstorms that develop are
expected to expand as they move eastward through the evening.
Model soundings indicate CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg across
most of the region through the evening therefore, expect scattered
severe thunderstorms. Very large hail up to softball size and
strong wind gusts up to 70 mph are expected with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. A tornado or two are also possible,
especially near the outflow boundary. Could see some heavy
rainfall and areas of flooding with PWAT values up to 1.25".

Thunderstorm chances will move out of the east overnight as the
upper ridging builds overhead and will suppress precipitation
through the afternoon. Low stratus will fill in over most of the
region early tomorrow morning. Patchy fog is also possible for
areas on the Caprock. The low clouds and fog are expected to clear
out late in the morning. A front will push into the region
tomorrow late afternoon through early evening and stall over
northern portions of the region. Storm chances return later
tomorrow afternoon following the front. Severe thunderstorm
thunderstorms are expected tomorrow as soundings show CAPE values
over 3000 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Rare for our office, we're genuinely struggling to find a break
in rain chances through the middle of next week. This is thanks to
unsettled SW flow parked atop a plume of gulf moisture residing
over much of W TX. Add to this a pair of cold fronts (one arriving
Friday and lingering into Saturday with another expected Tuesday),
a persistent dryline and we'll have sufficient low-level forcing
available. Capping concerns are moot until Sunday at which point
stronger SW flow ahead of an upper low lifting across the Central
Rockies will deliver a warmer EML which may serve to keep any
dryline convection more isolated. A trailing upper impulse over
the Desert Southwest by Tuesday looks to erode this capping while
the second cold front around this time aids in broader PoPs that
continue through Wednesday as the trough ejects over W TX. Few
changes to NBM were needed for Sun-Wed.

The big story in the extended is the threat for heavy rain and
flooding beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday
morning as we expect a cold front to stall or move very slowly
south over the CWA while intercepting a rich plume of PWATs
pushing 1.6", or nearly 300 percent of normal which alone raises
eyebrows. Add to this a nocturnal LLJ from the S-SE feeding rich
moisture orthogonally to the W-E front and the stage appears
primed for training convection with heavy rain and flooding at
times. Where this band of heaviest rain (potentially up to several
inches) sets up will hinge on the strength and location of
convective outflows, so opted to keep heavy rain mention very
broad in scope until Saturday afternoon at which time the LLJ
component subsides which should spur a downturn in PoPs. The
remnant front is still progged to retreat north and out of our
area as a warm front by the evening, so only low PoPs appear
warranted overnight in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

TSRA will continue to be possible at all terminals through the
evening. VCTS is currently observed at PVW and LBB with this
activity being generally east of the terminals and will be well
east of the terminals after 03Z. CDS should be clear of TSRA by
05Z. The next forecast uncertainty will be with low CIGs during
the overnight hours through late morning. There are some
indications that IFR CIGs could affect the terminals, but
uncertainty is too low to put in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
857 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

TXZ021>044-260200-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
857 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Tornado Watch is in effect through 11 PM this evening for the
Rolling Plains, the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, and the
eastern South Plains.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region this
afternoon.
These storms will then expand in coverage as they move to the east
through the evening hours. Some severe storms are likely and will be
capable of producing large hail up to softball size and damaging
wind
gusts up to 70 mph. Additionally, a few tornadoes are possible along
with flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms, including severe weather, will
continue each afternoon from Friday through Wednesday. Heavy rain
and flooding are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
731 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Hail             10 ESE South Plains     34.15N 101.15W
04/24/2025  M4.50 Inch       Floyd              TX   Public

            Via X ...tape measured.

&&

JWJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
740 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tornado          10 S Ralls              33.53N 101.38W
04/24/2025                   Crosby             TX   Law Enforcement

            Short lived tornado. Crosby SO.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
806 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     Tornado          4 W Roaring Springs     33.90N 100.93W
04/24/2025                   Motley             TX   Law Enforcement

            Brief tornado observed.

0744 PM     Flood            1 NE Crosbyton          33.66N 101.23W
04/24/2025                   Crosby             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
824 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tornado          10 W White River Lake   33.47N 101.27W
04/24/2025                   Crosby             TX   Storm Chaser

            Potentially as wide as 1/4 mile at greatest
            intensity.

&&

JWJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
841 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     Hail             8 S Ralls               33.56N 101.38W
04/24/2025  M2.50 Inch       Crosby             TX   Public

            Multiple reports.

&&

JWJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
853 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Tornado          11 SSW White River Lake 33.33N 101.14W
04/24/2025                   Garza              TX   Public

            Brief touchdown occurred.

&&

JWJ