Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the
   forecast area this evening, with some storms likely becoming
   severe.

 - Daily chances for storms, some severe, continue through Tuesday.

 - Friday night and Saturday morning hold potential for heavy rain
   and some flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

The short term forecast for the next 24 is a familiar one.

There is a prevailing westerly 250mb sub-tropical jet placed over
northern Mexico where a subtle left exit region will provide lift
for the CWA over the next 24 hours. There continues to be weak
westerly/southwesterly flow at the 500mb level (~25 kts), though
a 850mb LLJ will increase in the overnight hours. Today's airmass
is more moist than yesterday's characterized by dew points into
the lower 60s in the eastern portion of the CWA. SBCAPE values up
to 2,000 J/KG and little to no CIN indicates the likelihood of
strong updrafts. Current temps are about 5 degrees cooler than
yesterday, which would indicate a later convective initiation.
Despite the favorable thermodynamics, the environment is
characterized by weak shear ~30 kts which could lead to slightly
less favorable conditions for supercells, though the nocturnal LLJ
could help sustain storms longer during the overnight period.
With MUCAPE up to 2,000 J/Kg hail sizes up to 2.75 inches and
thunderstorm winds gusts of up to 70 mph are possible. Storms
will coalesce into an MCS which should push east out of the CWA
overnight with an attendant damaging wind gust and hail risk. With
slow RM storm motions of 5-10 kts, a flash flooding risk will
also accompany these storms.

Continual southerly flow at the surface will provide another period
of return flow tomorrow morning and afternoon creating a sharpening
dryline and another round of convection. Similar to today, high CAPE
values (~2,000 J/Kg) and shear(~35 kts) will characterize the
environment ahead of the dryline. Thus storm evolution, intensity,
and mode will resemble Tuesday and Wednesday.

KCL/JDS

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Daily bouts of showers and storms remain the theme through early
next week as unsettled southwest flow persists atop an unseasonably
moist and unstable air mass. Few changes were needed for Thursday
evening's precip chances east of a sharper dryline progged to sit
over the Caprock, with more widespread chances expected later on
Friday as a cold front stalls over the area. The biggest change
with this forecast involved boosting PoPs into the 70-90 realm
from Friday night through Saturday given increased support for
rich moisture advection streaming NW atop a stationary frontal
zone draped over the forecast area. This boundary could easily
shift north or south of our area in later model runs pending the
strength of convective cold pools, but for now a healthy signal
exists for training convection somewhere in our area with the
potential for heavy rain/flooding before the boundary ultimately
lifts north as a warm front by Saturday night. NBM's cool highs in
the 60s/70s for Saturday fit this pattern well.

Sunday features stronger SW flow overspreading the area downstream
of a vigorous low in the Great Basin. This improved flow supports
mixing the dryline out of NM and over the South Plains by the
afternoon while also supporting stronger shear profiles for
supercells, but at the same time this flow will advect a healthy
EML over the area perhaps leaving us capped all day. The dryline
could remain capped once again on Monday as the upper low ejects
too far to our north for any meaningful height falls/mid-level
cooling. This story should change come Tuesday as a southern
stream wave pinches off over the Desert SW and backs our winds
aloft to a more southerly component with slightly cooler temps in
the EML. Add to this a potential cold front reaching our area
courtesy of the departing northern stream low and it seems that
our active stretch of weather is a good bet through the final
days of April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Isolated thunderstorm threat at KPVW and KLBB in the next few
hours and a little later at KCDS. MVFR ceilings likely toward
sunrise through mid-morning at all terminals tomorrow morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KCL
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
259 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TXZ021>044-242000-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
259 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon and evening near the Texas and New Mexico border
before expanding over the remainder of the area. Severe storms are
likely and will be capable of producing very large hail up to
baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall and flooding are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms, including severe weather, will
continue each afternoon from Thursday through Tuesday. Heavy rain and
flooding are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
548 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TXZ022-232315-
Castro TX-
548 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CASTRO COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Easter, or 7 miles northwest of Dimmitt, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Easter and Dimmitt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 10210 3454 10231 3464 10249 3475 10239
      3475 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 223DEG 10KT 3464 10239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

AP

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