Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
639 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

...New UPDATE and AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cooler today with storm chances returning this afternoon and
   evening.

 - Cooler with thunderstorm chances each afternoon Tuesday through
   the weekend, some storms may become severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Updated to boost PoPs before midnight on the Caprock in
expectation of storms currently in eastern NM congealing as they
spread east. Recent satellite imagery shows enhanced cumulus
focusing along an E-W boundary stalled from just north of CVS to
near HRX and this should serve as the main focus for additional
storm development through early evening. Farther south, surface
winds are less convergent within weak easterlies, yet a theta-e
ridge is evident from CVS to LBB coincident with around 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE and negligible CINH. Provided outflow from
upstream convection can consolidate, this environment should
support multicells and linear modes on the Caprock before
instability wanes and convection declines farther east past
midnight which fits well with the eastern terminus of the SVR
box.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Thunderstorms chances tonight likely come with convection that comes
off the higher terrain of New Mexico in zonal flow aloft, supported
by an upper level trough ejecting across the central and southern
High Plains, and into an air mass with elevated instability with
CAPE values potentially in excess of 1000 J/kg. It remains uncertain
whether this convection will survive coming off the high terrain,
although a majority of CAMs suggest it will. Will keep PoPs in the
chance category for now and favor the northern half of the forecast
area. Otherwise, temperatures will be limited on the downside
tonight due to cloud cover and relatively high dew point
temperatures in the moist, upslope flow, apart from cool outflow
from should an MCS move across the forecast area.

Tuesday will continue to see a decent amount of cloud cover as no
significant change in pattern is expected, apart from some modest
subsidence behind tonight's departing mid/upper trough. This again
suggests that the NBM is a bit too warm and have trended down toward
a MOS/NBM mix for high temperatures. Cap strength likely holds
convection at bay Tuesday afternoon, apart from small possibility
across the western zones where some afternoon insolation may help
with destabilization.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

For this week, more moisture, cooler temperatures, modest flow
aloft will lead to highest chances of precipitation mid week.
Cooler temperatures will limit CAPE values thus decreasing the
potential of the more severe weather like we've seen for the last
couple days.

The upper air pattern is expected to evolve from the current more
southwest flow at 500mb to more northwest flow aloft by Wednesday
night as a low in the Dakotas moves east toward the Great Lakes
region. The pattern allows for stronger moist southerly flow at
850mb Wednesday evening which will give us the greatest chances
for area wide rainfall and should help maintain storms through
Wednesday night and Thursday. The latest GFS run brings a
stronger secondary front through late Wednesday night, which could
limit instability thursday leading to more showers than storms.
With cooler daytime temperatures, the atmospheric instability will
be lower, but not enough to eliminate the chances of a few severe
storms. A short wave rotating southeast through the Plains
Thursday night could bring in somewhat drier air aloft towards the
weekend, but at least a slight chance of showers and storms will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR at the terminals this evening
ahead of a brokent line of TS expected to sweep east and out of
NM around sunset. Confidence is highest in these TS impacting LBB
and PVW after 03Z and CDS toward midnight. Severe winds and hail
are not out of the question. Once storms depart, the window for
low stratus will open with MVFR and some IFR in the cards through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...93
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
522 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

TXZ021>044-272230-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
522 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico
toward sunset. These storms could produce wind gusts up to 70 mph
along with some large hail approaching 2 inches in diameter along
with heavy rainfall before weakening as they shift off the Caprock
around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue each day from Tuesday through
this weekend. The highest chances will come Wednesday night through
Thursday night. A few storms may be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
423 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Hail             2 S Olton               34.14N 102.14W
05/25/2025  E3.00 Inch       Lamb               TX   Public

            Delayed report from social media. Picture of
            a smashed windshield was included.

&&

HS