Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
   portions of the South Plains and into the Rolling Plains, and a few
   storms may be particularly intense.

 - A significant flash flooding event is expected across the Rolling
   Plains tonight, and a Flood Watch is in effect from 1 PM this
   afternoon through Wednesday morning.

 - Thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible Wednesday, followed by
   a slight reprieve Thursday and the return of storm chances Friday
   into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the upper level low
positioned across the Desert Southwest with a beltway of strong
southwesterly flow stretching from the Permian Basin all the way
into portions of Central Oklahoma. Meanwhile the surface low looks
to be parked over the far West Texas region with the dryline
positioned just east of the TX/NM state line. Given this and the
faster progression of the cold front this morning, with the front
currently parked just south of the US-82 corridor, our area of most
concern looks to be fixated across the southeastern Rolling Plains
within the warm-moist sector. East of the dryline and south of the
FROPA, satellite imagery depicts a developing CU field where he have
already seen a few towers try to initialize on KLBB radar early this
afternoon. As thunderstorms develop, especially within the area
highlighted above, MLCAPE values up to 2500 to 3000 J/kg and bulk
shear magnitudes of 50 knots will allow for storms to quickly become
severe with large hail up to baseball size and damaging winds to 80
mph possible. A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible with
storms however given quick storm motions as depicted by forecast
soundings give way to low confidence with this potential. Although
storms look to be confined for areas east of the I-27 corridor,
there is a chance as the upper level low moves closer to the region
and we see better jet dynamics move in with an area of diffluence
overhead will also lead to the potential for thunderstorms to
initialize across portions of the South Plains late this evening.
One caveat to this happening would be the fact that the environment
behind the front looks to be too stable, given the lingering low-
level stratus throughout the morning and early afternoon limiting
diurnal destabilization. With this, we expect these better jet
dynamics moving overhead to influence an additional round of
thunderstorms with hi-resolution guidance hinting at the
organization of an MCS through the overnight period. PWATs are well
above seasonal normals, as they have been the past week, which in
addition with the modest mid-level ascent will lead to the potential
for heavy rainfall during the overnight period. Given the recent
rainfall, with some WTM stations off the Caprock showing 4 day
rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches warrants and the potential for
multiple rounds of precipitation within this area tonight, a Flood
Watch which is in effect for areas off the Caprock from 1 PM this
evening until 7 AM Wednesday.

As for Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the morning and afternoon as the upper level trough
tracks slowly through the TX Panhandle region. Activity will begin
to decrease through the evening, as storms begin to diminish from
west to east as the upper level trough ejects east into the South
Plains region. As for temperatures on Wednesday, we should be cooler
thanks the cooler air mass brought to us by this afternoon FROPA in
addition to the northerly component of the wind, expect highs in the
70s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Relatively quieter weather is expected Thursday into mid weekend as
most of the active weather resides in the short term. A cold front
is progged to push into the region late Thursday under a weak upper
ridge. This will help to cool temps Friday back into the 60s area
wide despite the overhead ridge. Uncertainty remains in the
proximately of the cold front when progged convection develops along
it late Friday. The GFS has the front much closer than the ECMWF and
brings relatively heavy rainfall to at least our southern zones. An
upper low is still progged to amplify as it moves towards the Four
Corners late Sunday. There is some agreement with the possibility of
more active weather (convection) early to mid next week associated
with the upper low. South to southeasterly winds will help retain
moisture in the region. Temperatures will slowing rise into the
mid/upper 70s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected at all three terminals through the
afternoon as the FROPA looks to have progressed faster previous
guidance. Due to this faster progression of the front, the
confidence in severe TS impacting KLBB has decreased with higher
confidence at KCDS later tonight. However, there still remains a
chance for isolated thunderstorms to impact KLBB and KPVW this
afternoon and early evening before pushing northeast. An
additional round of storms is possible late tonight through early
tomorrow morning, primarily impacting KCDS with lingering TSRA
through sunrise.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ024>026-030>032-
036>038-042>044.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
205 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

TXZ021>044-301915-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
205 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM CDT for the
Rolling Plains, far southeastern Texas Panhandle, and the eastern
South Plains.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across
portions of the South Plains and into the Rolling Plains. All
hazards will be possible with storms this afternoon and evening,
including: tornadoes, very large hail up to baseball size, and
damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph. Some tornadoes may be rain-wrapped
and difficult to see.

A significant flash flooding event is expected in the Rolling Plains
tonight, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from a large complex
of storms is expected. Some storms may be severe during the
overnight hours, with a primary risk for large hail up to golf ball
size.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Rolling Plains from 1 PM
CDT this afternoon through 7 AM CDT Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms, some severe, will then continue for
the rest of the week and into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.