Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

 - Strong to severe storms possible tonight in the eastern Rolling
   Plains.

 - Dangerous high wind event on Tuesday with some wind gusts of
   70+ mph likely.

 - Localized dust storm conditions possible on Tuesday, mainly
   over the far southern South Plains.

 - Critical fire weather likely area wide on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Satellite channels showed an upper low barreling east over the Four
Corners this afternoon ahead of a whopping 150 knot jet at 300 mb.
The widespread high wind event already underway in NM and into
portions of our western counties will unfortunately shift squarely
over our forecast area on Tuesday, but not until we contend with a
round of nocturnal storms in the eastern Rolling Plains as a Pacific
front collides with the dryline toward midnight. Recent models,
including CAMs, are keen on initiating convection overnight well
east of Highway 83; however, with modest backing of surface winds
this evening east of the dryline we feel the dryline will retreat a
bit further west and open the door to storms in our far eastern
column of counties before the Pacific front sweeps these east after
midnight.

Strong lee cyclogenesis in Colorado will slide ESE across Kansas on
Tuesday while the upper low expands south through the TX Panhandle
in response to a vort max upstream digging into the base of the
trough. This impulse will swing a hefty mid-level cold pocket (-28C
at H5) over the Caprock by daybreak accompanied by some rain and
even a few snow showers, mainly in our N-NW counties, before
subsidence overwhelms this saturated layer anchored around H7. The
main story Tuesday remains high wind as the H7 height gradient
sharpens so much that it exceeds our local high wind flowchart
thresholds! The 200 nautical mile height gradient at H7 grows to
nearly 120 meters by 15z which is remarkable and a testament to the
hurricane-force winds in this layer. These gusts could easily mix to
the surface by midday as mixing heights extend into this layer, so
an upgrade to a High Wind Warning is likely either this evening over
overnight once our current warning expires. HREF clusters show
better agreement in this N-S oriented 60-70 knot H7 wind belt
traversing eastward through the day, so the most dangerous winds
will be shifting off the Caprock through the afternoon before
finally easing by the evening as mixing wanes. Lastly, blowing dust
will be a factor everywhere tomorrow, but of primary concern is the
very real threat of dust storm conditions along and southeast of
Brownfield Highway where the worst visibilities are most likely to
set up from these intense NW winds. Later shifts will revisit this
potential as needed. Few changes were made to NBM's temps tonight
and tomorrow, although the NBM winds were traded for much higher
values more in tune with HREF max values given the magnitude of this
setup.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Winds will slowly diminish Tuesday night as well as chances of
patchy blowing dust will move northeastward out of the region as
the upper trough proceeds east away from the region. A
deamplifying ridge will follow the trough bringing zonal flow
aloft. The strong winds are not over just yet though as a stacked
lee side low will increase southerly winds on Thursday as it
passes over the Central Plains. Highs on Thursday increase into
the 70s region wide due to the warm air being ushered in by the
southerly flow. Breezy winds will shift from the west early Friday
as the surface low continues to track east swinging a Pacific
front through the area though the effects will not last long as a
cold front will push through the area from the north later Friday
into Saturday. Northerly winds following the front will be breezy
cooling highs back into the 60s for Friday and 50s for Saturday.
The cold front will also bring slight chance of precipitation
Friday evening into Saturday with the possibility for wintry mix
overnight for much of the South Plains. Mild and quiet weather
expected beginning next week as upper ridging once again sets up
overhead Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Wind and blowing dust will be an issue over the next 24 hours.

Magnitude and direction of LLWS for CDS is a point of uncertainty
during the evening hours due to placement of surface boundaries.

There is a potential for a MVFR cloud deck late Tuesday morning. If
this cloud deck is present this could serve to lower surface wind
speeds. With this cloud deck there could be issues with virga and
associated downbursts. Otherwise, just watch out for the wind. It
shan't be pleasant.

KCL JDS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Extremely critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon
over the western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle
where high winds of 35 to 45 mph and single-digit RHs are creating
RFTIs of 7 to 8. Conditions elsewhere will remain less volatile for
fire spread thanks to winds of 20 to 30 mph. These winds will draw
lower this evening but remain breezy overnight with generally poor
RH recoveries. A few storms are possible overnight well off the
Caprock as a Pacific cold front overruns the dryline.

High winds are likely beginning Tuesday morning as westerly winds of
30 to 40 mph turn NW and increase to 40-50 mph with some gusts of
70+ mph likely. These winds will gradually taper from W-E through
the afternoon at which time RHs fall into the teens and 20s. Even
though high temperatures will be 15-20 degrees cooler than today,
the magnitude of winds combined with favorable RHs will still
create widespread critical fire conditions with an enhanced threat
for fire starts from any downed power lines.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-027-033.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ022-023-028-029-
034-035-039-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 9 SW Earth              34.19N 102.56W
03/03/2025  M60 MPH          Lamb               TX   Mesonet

            Measured by the TTU mesonet.

&&

JDV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
348 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Friona             34.66N 102.70W
03/03/2025  M61 MPH          Parmer             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
455 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSW Muleshoe          34.20N 102.74W
03/03/2025  M59 MPH          Bailey             TX   Mesonet

            West TX mesonet report.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Friona             34.66N 102.70W
03/03/2025  M67 MPH          Parmer             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

0544 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 9 WSW Earth             34.18N 102.55W
03/03/2025  M67 MPH          Lamb               TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

0606 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NE Amherst            34.02N 102.40W
03/03/2025  M62 MPH          Lamb               TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

0554 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Dimmitt            34.57N 102.29W
03/03/2025  M61 MPH          Castro             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

0616 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 N Hart                34.43N 102.11W
03/03/2025  M65 MPH          Castro             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

0520 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SSW Muleshoe          34.20N 102.74W
03/03/2025  M64 MPH          Bailey             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet report.

&&

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