Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the
   region through late tonight, with a few instances of strong
   wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding possible.

 - A few additional storms are possible on Friday, but storms
   should be more sparse in coverage compared to today.

 - Generally hot and dry conditions this weekend into early next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An impressive mid/upper level monsoonal moisture plume remains in
place over NM and West TX early this afternoon within south-
southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of broad upper ridging
centered over the SE CONUS. At the surface, a diffuse trough and
associated wind shift is evident at 17z stretching from the SW South
Plains into the SE TX Panhandle, with weak northerly surface flow to
the north of this boundary and stronger southwesterly flow present
elsewhere. This feature is likely to serve as an initial focus for
thunderstorm development this afternoon as capping erodes and
convective temperatures are reached. Given the rich low level
moisture present south and east of the surface trough (surface dew
points in the upper 60s at 17z to the east of I-27), we expect
storms to be a bit more widespread this afternoon compared to
yesterday. Potential does exist for heavy rain and localized
flooding given slow storm motion and PWATs near 1.5", and a few wind
gusts up to 65 mph will also be possible as cores collapse given
DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Large scale forcing will remain
generally weak through the rest of the daytime hours which will
limit the potential for upscale growth of this initial pulse-type
convection, with PoPs limited to the 30-40 percent range as a result
through sunset.

This evening, a compact midlevel shortwave trough is progged to move
into the TX Panhandle from NE NM, which will provide an increase in
forcing for ascent combined with ongoing outflow collisions from
earlier convection. As a result, there is potential for showers and
thunderstorms to become more widespread after sunset, especially
across the far southern TX Panhandle and adjacent portions of the
South Plains and Rolling Plains. MUCAPEs are progged to remain near
or above 2000 J/kg well after dark, resulting in a continued
potential for heavy rain and strong wind gusts. This potential is
maximized over northern portions of the forecast area, but given the
uncertainty and the moist environment, will keep mentionable PoPs in
place over the most of the area through the overnight hours, with a
majority of guidance pointing to showers and storms ending before
sunrise.

Temperatures are expected to be a bit above normal on Friday with
highs in the mid 90s to near 100, but uncertainty is relatively high
regarding precipitation potential during the day. A majority of
models indicate rich surface moisture remaining in place, though the
monsoonal moisture plume will thin substantially and large scale
subsidence will increase in response to an expansion of ridging
aloft. Surface dewpoints above 60 degrees combined with strong
heating should result in minimal inhibition, and a few isolated
storms look probable during the afternoon hours as a result, though
coverage and duration will both be much lower than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The long term package is on track for hot temperatures and dry
conditions. An upper high will persist over southeastern CONUS,
however will back build to the west while an upper trough
deamplifies over the coast of California through the weekend. By
middle of next week, the upper high will shift towards the Central
Plains, covering most of southern CONUS. As the high strengthens and
back builds, the monsoonal moisture plume will get pushed to the
west, away from our region. Lack of the monsoonal moisture and
subsidence from the upper high will keep precipitation chances near
zero over the weekend and through next week. Southeasterly surface
winds Saturday afternoon, drawing in moisture from the Gulf, could
result in an isolated thunderstorm or two despite the subsidence.
Height increases due to the upper ridging will keep temperatures hot
through next week with some areas off the Caprock reaching triple
digits over the weekend through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Thunderstorms remain possible at KLBB and KPVW through around 04z
and PROB30s have been included in the TAFs through that time.
Convection is also possible at KCDS and should linger a few hours
longer. Gusty and erratic winds and reduced visibilities are
possible within any storms. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will
persist into Friday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ021>044-251800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of the
region through late tonight. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts up to 65 mph and hail up to the size of
quarters. Heavy rainfall may also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop Friday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ033-039-242345-
Cochran TX-Yoakum TX-
614 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northwest of Bledsoe to 3 miles
southwest of Bronco. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Denver City, Plains, Bronco, Lehman, and Bledsoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 10305 3383 10303 3383 10278 3296 10272
      3296 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 241DEG 4KT 3366 10305 3321 10306

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

26

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
711 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ028-250045-
Lamb TX-
711 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LAMB COUNTY THROUGH 745
PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Sudan, or 7 miles south of Earth. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Earth, Sudan, and Amherst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 10262 3417 10261 3431 10247 3431 10235
      3406 10226 3383 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 241DEG 3KT 3413 10245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
718 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ034-035-040-041-250115-
Terry TX-Hockley TX-Lynn TX-Lubbock TX-
718 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT LUBBOCK...LYNN...TERRY AND HOCKLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong outflow boundary
along a line extending from 4 miles south of Pep to 9 miles
northeast of Seagraves Airport. Movement was east at 35 mph.  This
boundary may contain wind gusts of up to 55 mph along with areas of
blowing dust.  While there is uncertainty regards to if this
boundary will maintain its speed, it may reach the I-27 and US 87
corridor by around 8 pm.  Thus far, the peak mesonet wind reported
with this activity has been 42 mph though we have seen higher winds
over time with boundaries like this over the past several evenings.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Levelland, Brownfield, Slaton, Abernathy, Tahoka, Wolfforth,
Shallowater, Idalou, Sundown, Anton, Ransom Canyon, O'Donnell, New
Moore, Lubbock South Plains Mall, Locketville, Slide, Woodrow, Reese
Center, and Lubbock International Airport.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10239 3382 10255 3383 10163 3296 10160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 257DEG 29KT 3376 10253 3302 10240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
746 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ027-028-250115-
Bailey TX-Lamb TX-
746 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN BAILEY AND LAMB COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Earth. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Littlefield, Earth, Sudan, Amherst, Bula, and Springlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 10268 3432 10233 3427 10213 3390 10235
      3383 10276 3384 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 186DEG 0KT 3414 10244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
748 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

TXZ024-025-030-250115-
Floyd TX-Briscoe TX-Hall TX-
748 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN
HALL AND SOUTHEASTERN BRISCOE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Caprock Canyon State Park, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Silverton, Turkey, Caprock Canyon State Park, Quitaque, Valley
Schools, and South Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 10085 3431 10093 3431 10104 3419 10109
      3408 10119 3427 10152 3431 10149 3431 10147
      3433 10147 3466 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 224DEG 6KT 3442 10110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

26